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France Autos Report Q1 2013

  • Publication Date:November 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:58
  • ISBN:169801

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We have become ever more bearish on the French automotive industry. Passenger car sales declined
18.3% y-o-y in September, to 136,900 units. Over the first nine months of the year, sales in this segment
declined 13.9% y-o-y, to 1,430,884 units. BMI forecasts a 12% decrease in passenger car sales in 2012.
We believe the weakness in the passenger car market reflects the absence of last year's vehicle scrappage
scheme, and the underlying weaknesses in private demand. We maintain this forecast for now, but caution
that further contractions in consumer spending could provide downside risks.

PSA and Renault's combined French workforce has shrunk by one-fifth over four years to about 155,000
workers. However, the auto industry as a whole - including suppliers, showrooms and garages - still
provides close to 10% of the country's private sector jobs, according to official data.
Domestic production will dwindle, both car makers say, until the government cuts employment taxes that
have inflated overall labour costs to match Germany's. Luxury marques such as Volkswagen, Audi and
BMW can stay profitable with higher labour costs because they command better prices. French president
Francois Hollande, however, argues that 'labour costs are not the determining factor for French
competitiveness'. BMI believes that ongoing economic weakness in France and Europe will continue
causing French auto manufacturers to reconsider their business models, with shifts in production and
strategic focus to high-growth emerging markets expected. This will have adverse effects on the French
labour force.

Indeed, the decline in France's industrial competitiveness is a fundamental issue facing Hollande and
leading economic indicators continue to display signs of distress in the country. Industrial production (IP)
remains in contraction territory, shrinking as softening eurozone demand weighs on output. BMI believes
France IP will contract in 2012, in line with our auto production forecast for the country.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
France Autos Industry SWOT . 6
France Political SWOTs . 7
France Economic SWOTs . 7
France Business Environment SWOTs 8
Global Overview 9
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform . 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 9
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On 9
Regional Overview 14
Bearish On Passenger Car Sales Outlook For Much Of Region . 14
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 17
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings . 17
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 21
Macroeconomic Outlook . 22
Table: Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 25
Industry Forecast 26
Domestic Sales . 26
Table: Autos Sales, 2010-2017 26
Production . 28
Table: Autos Production, 2010-2017 28
Table: 2011 Production By Brand 29
Trade 30
Table: Autos Trade, 2010-2017 30
Market Overview. 30
Passenger Cars . 33
Table: Passenger Cars- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 33
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Brand 34
New Investments and Company News . 34
Commercial Vehicles 38
Table: Commercial Vehicles- Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 38
Table: LCV Sales By Brand 40
Table: Heavy Trucks Sales By Brand 40
Table: Bus & Coach Sales By Brand 41
New Investments . 41
Motorcycles . 43
Table: Motorcycles - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 43
Suppliers . 44
Company Monitor . 46
Company Profiles . 48
PSA Peugeot Citroën 48
Renault 50
Country Snapshot . 52
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 53
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 54
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 55
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 55
BMI Methodology 56
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model . 56
Sources . 57
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