Global Market Review of Hybrids and Electric-Drive Vehicles

This is just-auto's first global market review of hybrids and electric drive technology. With these sectors set to dominate alternative propulsion and the drive for better fuel efficiency over the short-term future, this report provides a timely review of the latest technologies from the main players, our analysis of market take-up and a review of the different technologies and where they are heading.

Most industry analysts expect plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles to follow a roughly similar growth curve, though aggressive government policies to subsidise plug-ins may increase consumer take-up by compensating for the high cost of the battery packs over the first few years.

Idle-stop, or micro-hybrid systems seem likely to penetrate certain regions - especially Europe - quite rapidly over the next five years.

So how fast will hybrids, plug-ins and electric vehicles increase their total share over the next few years? For example, just-auto believes through its three forecast scenarios, that conventional ('full' or power-split) hybrids such as the archtetypal Toyota Prius will represent anything between 3% and 8% of global light vehicle production by 2015.

Plug-in vehicles will take a much lower share, split among: pure battery-electrics (with ranges of up to 200 miles); plug-in hybrids (PHEVs); and extended-range EVs ('series' hybrids).

This report provides production volume estimates and percentage market shares from 2008 to 2015 for hybrid and plug-in technologies across three scenarios: "battery skeptical"; "moderate"; and "uber-green".

Chapter 1 Market projections

This chapter provides a concise overview of likely take-up of each of the main technologies. It provides market volume projections and market shares from 2008 to 2015 for hybrids and plug-ins.

Chapter 2 Technology review

This chapter looks at each of the principle technologies including:

• Micro-hybrids
• Mild hybrids
• Full (parallel or 'power-split') hybrids
• Plug-in hybrids
• Extended-range electric vehicles
• The diesel question
• Downsized and GDI turbocharged petrol engines
• Battery-electric vehicles

Timelines are provided for key technologies, offering a historic and forecast line of vehicle launches.

Chapter 3 Factors affecting the market

Five major drivers for adoption of electric-drive vehicles are: oil prices; battery costs; regulation of vehicular emissions, in particular carbon; changing duty cycles in developed countries; and new financial models for vehicle usage.

On the other side of the scale are five barriers - or at least concerns - that must be addressed or overcome to enable a widespread rollout of electric-drive vehicles. Most immediate will be the rising near-term cost of all vehicles; concerns over adequate supplies of electricity to recharge plug-in cars; analyses of the 'wells to wheels' carbon impact of cars powered largely or exclusively by electricity; the emergence of lithium as a strategic commodity, and associated geopolitics; and finally, the troubling question for vehiclemakers of whether they are comfortable if their core energy storage medium must be bought in from an entirely separate industry.

This chapter analyses these factors and addresses how these will likely play out.

Chapter 4 Manufacturer review

In assessing each individual manufacturer's activities in electric-drive vehicles, the world's OEMs can be sorted into three groups.

In the top tier, Toyota stands alone. It pioneered the modern hybrid, has built well over half the 2m hybrids on the road today, and plans to offer a hybrid version of every vehicle it makes. While hard cost data are lacking, analysts estimate the company has spent US$5bn or more on its hybrid programme over 15 years - although, as one executive at a competitor said when promised anonymity: ""If you went to our board and said, hey, I want to spend US$5-10bn to own the next green car technology...that sounds like a pretty good deal, doesn't it?"