Vehicle Electrification: Worldwide Forecasts

Like many emerging technologies, vehicle electrification has been around for a long time, but until recently, the technology has not really "taken off." Even though the automotive (i.e. passenger cars and light trucks) portion of the vehicle electrification market is expected to be large, the non-automotive segments represent a potential $893 million opportunity worldwide, growing to approximately $2 billion in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 17.1%.

Passenger hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs)s get a lot of press, but they do not necessarily represent the best opportunity for suppliers attempting to get into the vehicle electrification market. Environmental regulations and fuel efficiency do provide a strong stimulus to adopt HEVs and plug-in hybrids, but they do not benefit from the technology as much as the other vehicle types. The automotive market is also very price-sensitive, and vehicle electrification is still an expensive proposition.

The economic and business forces affecting these markets is currently in flux. US automakers are focusing more on hybrid-electric and electric vehicles, due to the provisions of the US Congressional "Financial Stimulus" package. One of the most critical components needed for the adoption of hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles is batteries and their concurrent battery management systems. The financial stimulus package allocates $300 million for a federal fleet of hybrid and electric vehicles but more importantly, it also provides $2 billion for grants that would support the manufacturing of advanced vehicle batteries and components.

In addition, the emphasis on infrastructure spending in this and many other national fiscal stimulus packages will be good for some of the non-automotive markets discussed in this report, such as heavy-duty trucks.

Additional factors are pointing toward increased adoption of electric and hybrid-electric vehicles in a variety of transportation markets. For example, WestStart saw 2008 as the "first commercial volumes" of hybrid trucks.

The trends driving demand for vehicle electrification include:

• (1) Regulations - With an emphasis on "green" technology, the number of regulatory incentives and requirements favoring electric and hybrid-electric vehicles is increasing, particularly in the United States. This will be further supported by national fiscal stimulus packages.
• (2) Cost - Vehicle electrification technology is improving and getting more cost-effective.
• (3) Underlying Economics - Adopting electric and hybrid-electric technologies is helping owners save money; e.g. truckers can save money with hybrid technologies.
• (4) Gasoline Prices - Prices have been volatile over the past year. In North America, the steep fall in fuel prices has restored some profitability to truck operators and their ability to replace aging equipment, even as it has reduced the demand for passenger HEVs. Still, China, India and other developing regions are using petroleum resources, making shortages more likely in the future.

Regulations, in particular, will help drive adoption of electric and hybrid-electric vehicles. The California Air Resources Board (CARB), has strict emissions control standards that limit gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles. Their "Off-Road Large Spark-Ignition (Gasoline and LPG) Equipment Activities" covers forklifts, specialty vehicles, airport service vehicles, large turf care equipment and a wide array of other agricultural, construction and general industrial equipment. CARB has also issued an advisory that pertains to golf carts, sweepers, turf care equipment and utility vehicles.

Dealing with hydraulic fluids is another factor driving adoption of electric technologies, particularly in turf care and construction vehicles. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has regulations regarding such fluids, covered under "Municipal Solid Waste." The document states that, "Used oil must be recycled or disposed of properly by local waste management authorities or automotive repair shops." The definition of "used oil" includes engine lubrication oil, hydraulic fluids and gear oils. Vehicle electrification can be a cost-effective way to get rid of the problems associated with hydraulics.

Looking at powertrain systems, a number of factors are driving the adoption of vehicle electrification technologies, including environmental regulations, stop-start function, varying loads, fuel efficiency, and less price-sensitive markets (see Table 1). These differ by vehicle type, with some applications being more appropriate candidates for electrification than others.

Environmental regulations and fuel efficiency are driving nearly all vehicle applications.

The two most important technology drivers for powertrain vehicle electrification are stop-start function and varying loads. Commercial Vehicles and Off-Road Vehicles particularly benefit from stop-start functionality; while Small Task-Oriented Vehicles, Heavy-Duty Trucks and Off- Road Vehicles have varying loads. Most of these applications are less price-sensitive, as well.

These and other factors went into the assumptions for the forecasts included in this report.

Looking at trends in power management ICs can also help gauge the readiness of the vehicle electrification market. Even with the economic downturn, power ICs are expected to be fairly resilient due to the emphasis placed on greater power efficiency within many applications.

Automotive is one of the largest markets for power ICs, and the semiconductor market supplying hybrid powertrains is expected to increase from $384 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion 2015, mainly in power devices but also in analog microcontrollers and sensors. The research firm believes that "electrification in powertrains will deliver significant opportunities for semiconductor vendors," with 38% annual growth for full and mild hybrid powertrains from 2007 to 2012.

Companies Mentioned:

• 3M
• A123
• ActaCell
• Advanced Energy
• AeroVironment Inc.
• Alabama Power
• All Cell Technologies
• Altair Nanotechnologies,
• American Electric Power
• American Trucking Association
• Argonne National Laboratory
• Arvin Meritor
• Azure Dynamics
• Balqon Corp
• Brookhaven National Laboratory
• California Air Resources Board
• Car-Tech Services Australia
• Consolidated Edison
• Continental/Siemens VDO
• Coulomb Technologies
• Daimler
• Deere & Company
• Dominion Virginia Power
• Dongfeng MotorCorp
• Dontech Global
• DTE Energy
• Duke Energy
• EaglePicher
• Eaton Corp.
• Electric Drive Transportation Association
• Electric Power Research Institute
• Electrite de France
• Ener1
• EnerSys
• Enova
• Envia Systems
• Environmental Protection Agency
• FAW Bus and Coach Co.
• FMC
• Ford Motor Company
• FreedomCAR & Vehicle Technologies
• Freescale Semiconductor
• Freightliner
• GE Global Research Center
• General Electric
• General Motors Corp.
• GM-Allison
• GridWise Alliance
• Hitachi
• Hitachi Vehicle Energy
• Honda
• Indy Power Systems
• International Battery
• International Organization for Standardization
• International Truck and Engine Corp.
• Japan Fire Equipment Inspection Institute
• Johnson Controls
• Johnson Controls-Saft
• Kenworth
• Komatsu
• Magna International
• Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.
• Mercedes-Benz
• MicroSun Technologies
• MIT
• Mitsubishi Electric Corp.
• Mobius Power
• National Alliance for Advanced Transportation Battery Cell Manufacture
• National Grid
• Navistar
• New York Power Authority
• New York State Energy and Research Development Authority
• Nissan Motor Co.
• Nissan Renault
• Omaha Public Power District
• Optare
• Peterbilt
• Portland General Electric Co.
• Progress Energy
• Qualcomm
• Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
• Ricardo Inc.
• Scania
• Sequoia Capital
• SFC Smart Fuel Cell AG
• SiLyte
• Smart
• Smith Newton
• Southern Company
• Superior Graphite
• TDK Corp.
• Tokyo Electric Power Co.
• Tongkun New Energy Technologies Co.
• Townsend Advanced Energy
• Toyota Motor Corp.
• Traction Technologies
• UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies
• University of Albany
• UQM Technology
• US Air Force
• US Department of Energy
• US Hybrid
• Volkswagen and Toshiba
• Volvo
• Western Star