World Light-Duty Green Vehicles

Industry forecasts for 2013 & 2018

Publication Date	July 2009
Publisher	Freedonia Group
Product Type	Report
Pages	317
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	FED00489

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Summary

Global demand to expand rapidly through 2013

Worldwide demand for "green" passenger cars and light trucks will expand rapidly to 3.0 million units in 2013, propelled by a confluence of technology breakthroughs and government support. These environmentally friendly light vehicles -- hybridelectric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), pure electric vehicles (EVs) and natural gas vehicles (NGVs) -- will quickly penetrate the world light vehicle market in response to increasing concerns regarding carbon dioxide emissions, energy independence and overall "sustainability" issues.

Government support to close cost disparity gap Cost disparities between green and conventional light vehicles currently range from about $3,000 for conventional HEVs to more than $10,000 for some PHEVs and EVs. As a result, efficiently achieving adequate economic scale will be a continuing challenge, although early signs of substantial government support in the forms of tax credits and infrastructure support bode well for the industry. Primary demand for green vehicles will come from Triad markets (US, Western Europe, Japan) as well as from China, where the government has emphacized their production and sale.

US to lead green vehicle demand within Triad

Within the Triad, the US market is expected to experience the highest levels of demand for green vehicles, due to erratic fuel costs, the market's unique and rising Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements, and the relative lack of demand for light vehicle diesels. Despite being less cost-effective than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, green vehicles have begun to carve out a loyal fuel-efficiency focused niche in the US market. Moving beyond this niche status will be the primary industry challenge going forward.

Green vehicle demand in Europe, where overall light vehicle diesel sales already exceed 50 percent of the total market, will be significantly lower than in the US, although some bright spots for selected green technologies, such as Italy's preference for NGVs, will persist. Japan will see increased demand for green vehicles going forward, as government agencies and allied associations continue to put tax and other incentives in place to stimulate demand.

Elsewhere in the Asia/Pacific region, both China and South Korea are expected to become key green vehicle markets over the next ten years, due to government interest in dealing with mobile emissions (China), and because local production is planned (both China and South Korea). Other regions of the world will likely experience lower rates of demand, although countries overwhelmed by mobile-generated pollution such as India could mandate use to clean the air. Some emerging market anomalies exist, however, such as the high NGV penetration levels in Pakistan and Brazil.

Green vehicle technologies have become quite robust

Green vehicle technologies have become quite robust in terms of reliability and durability, given their comparatively brief presence in the market. The recent arrival of commercialization-ready advanced vehicle battery systems based on lithium ion technology has increased expectations regarding PHEVs and EVs, although costs that exceed $10,000 for these battery packs alone will hinder their short to medium-term uptake.

Content

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- General
- World Economic Overview
- Recent Historical Trends
- World Economic Outlook
- World Population Overview
- World Households
- World Light Vehicle Overview
- Light Vehicle Production
- Light Vehicle Sales
- Environmental & Regulatory Factors
- Regulatory Convergence
- Drivers of Regulatory Change
- Pricing Trends
- Competitive Assessment
- Green Vehicle Technology Assessment
- Pure Electric Vehicles
- Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
- Full Hybrid
- Mild Hybrid
- Plug-In Hybrid
- Natural Gas Vehicles
- Competing Technologies
- Internal Combustion Engines
- Spark Ignition Internal Combustion Engines
- Diesel Internal Combustion Engines
- Flexible Fuel Internal Combustion Engines
- Fuel Cell Powered Vehicles
- Energy Storage Technology
III. WORLD OVERVIEW
- General
- World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand Trends
- Demand by Region
- Supply by Region
- Foreign Trade
- World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Park
- World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- Natural Gas Vehicles
- Conventional Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
- Electric Vehicles
- Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles
IV. NORTH AMERICA
- General
- Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- United States
- Canada
- Mexico
V. WESTERN EUROPE
- General
- Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- Italy
- France
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- Sweden
- Other Western Europe
VI. ASIA/PACIFIC
- General
- Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- Japan
- China
- India
- Australia
- South Korea
- Other Asia/Pacific
VII. OTHER REGIONS
- Latin America
- Macroeconomic & Green Vehicle Overview
- Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- Eastern Europe
- Macroeconomic & Green Vehicle Overview
- Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- Africa/Mideast
- Macroeconomic & Green Vehicle Overview
- Green Vehicle Demand by Type
VIII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- General
- Industry Composition & Market Share
- HEV, EV & PHEV Light Vehicle Market Share
- Natural Gas Light Vehicle Market Share
- Mergers, Acquisitions & Industry Restructuring
- Research & Product Development
- Manufacturing
- Marketing
- Distribution
- Financial Issues & Requirements
- Strategic Partnerships
- Company Profiles
- AC Propulsion Incorporated
- Aisin Seiki Company Limited
- Automotive Energy Supply, see Nissan Motor Company
- Automotive Fuel Cell Cooperation Corporation, see
- Ballard Power Systems, Daimler and Ford
- Ballard Power Systems Incorporated
- Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
- Better Place, see Project Better Place LLC
- Blue Energy Company, see GS Yuasa and Honda
- Bosch (Robert) GmbH
- BYD Company Limited
- Chrysler Group LLC
- Continental AG
- Daimler AG
- DENSO Corporation
- Fiat SpA
- Ford Motor Company
- Fuji Heavy Industries Limited
- General Motors Corporation
- Green Propulsion SA
- GS Yuasa Corporation
- Honda Motor Company Limited
- Hyundai Motor Company
- Infineon Technologies AG
- Iran Khodro Company
- Kia Motors Corporation, see Hyundai Motor Company
- Lightning Car Company Limited
- Lithium Energy Japan, see GS Yuasa and Mitsubishi Motors
- Mitsubishi Motors Corporation
- Nissan Motor Company Limited
- Panasonic Corporation
- Panasonic EV Energy Company, see Panasonic and Toyota
- Peugeot SA
- Phoenix Motorcars Incorporated
- Project Better Place LLC
- Renault SA
- REVA Electric Car Company Private Limited
- Saft Groupe SA
- SAIPA Group
- SANYO Electric Company Limited
- SB LiMotive Company, see Bosch (Robert)
- Siemens VDO Automotive, see Continental
- Subaru, see Fuji Heavy Industries
- Tata Motors Limited
- Tesla Motors Incorporated
- Think Global AS
- Toyota Motor Corporation
- Visionary Vehicles LLC
- Volkswagen AG
- ZAP
- ZF Friedrichshafen AG
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Summary Table
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region
- 2 World Population by Region
- 3 World Households by Region
- 4 World Light Vehicle Production by Region
- 5 World Light Vehicle Sales by Region
- 6 World Gasoline Direct-Injection Light Vehicle Sales by Region
- 7 World Diesel Light Vehicle Sales by Region
- 8 World Flexible Fuel Light Vehicle Sales by Region
- 9 World Commercial Motor Vehicle Fuel Cell Demand by Chemistry, Region & Product
SECTION III -- WORLD OVERVIEW
- 1 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 2 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Region
- 3 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply by Region
- 4 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Net Exports
- 5 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Park
- 6 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 7 World Light-Duty Natural Gas Vehicle Demand
- 8 World Light-Duty Conventional Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Demand
- 9 World Light-Duty Pure Electric Vehicle Demand
- 10 World Light-Duty Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Demand
SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA
- 1 North America Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 2 North America Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand
- 3 United States Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 4 United States Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 5 Canada Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 6 Canada Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 7 Mexico Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 8 Mexico Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE
- 1 Western Europe Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 2 Western Europe Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 3 Italy Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 4 Italy Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 5 France Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 6 France Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 7 Germany Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 8 Germany Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 9 United Kingdom Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 10 United Kingdom Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 11 Sweden Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 12 Sweden Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 13 Other Western Europe Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 14 Other Western Europe Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC
- 1 Asia/Pacific Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 2 Asia/Pacific Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 3 Japan Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 4 Japan Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 5 China Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 6 China Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 7 India Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 8 India Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 9 Australia Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 10 Australia Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 11 South Korea Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 12 South Korea Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 13 Other Asia/Pacific Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 14 Other Asia/Pacific Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS
- 1 Latin America Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 2 Latin America Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 3 Eastern Europe Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 4 Eastern Europe Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
- 5 Africa/Mideast Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand
- 6 Africa/Mideast Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type
SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1 Sales of Selected Light-Duty Green Vehicle Producers, 2008
- 2 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
- 3 Selected Cooperative Agreements
LIST OF CHARTS
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1 Global Green Vehicle Demand Scenarios
- 2 Honda Civic Hybrid & NGV Model Breakeven Versus Civic ICE Model, US Market Example, 2009 Data
- 3 Options for Improving Light Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
- 4 Alternative Powerplant Forces at Work
- 5 Light Vehicle Powerplant Technology Assessment (Next Decade)
- 6 Price/Benefits Comparison of Selected Light-Duty Green Vehicles, 2009 Model Year
- 7 Types of Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Technologies
SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1 Light-Duty Green Vehicle Market Share, 2008
- 2 Light-Duty HEV, EV & PHEV Market Share, 2008
- 3 Light-Duty Natural Gas Vehicle Market Share, 2008
- 4 Trigger Technology Definition, Antilock Brake System