Booming Russian Automobile Sector

Publication Date	September 2007
Publisher	RNCOS
Product Type	Report
Pages	80
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	RCS00220

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Summary

"Booming Russian Automobile Sector" report by RNCOS has been made to give an overview of global automobile industry keeping Russian automobile industry at its core. The report presents the current picture of the global automobile industry as well as evaluates the region-wise production and sales of the industry. However, the report has its focus on the Russian automobile industry. The Russian industry has been defined in detail covering its current landscape and future outlook (like car penetration, new passenger car registration, and passenger car sales for the period 2007-2010). It also helps the clients to analyze the leading-edge opportunities and the driving factors that are critical for the success of Russian automobile industry. The future growth of passenger car segment is further fragmented in foreign branded and Russian passenger car. However, the forecast of different segment are not based on an intricate economic model but has been done by correlating its past and present performance. The above-mentioned tools would help the potential investors to plot a route through the evolving market of Russian automobiles.

Market Analysis

The ongoing economic development in many parts of the world is spurring fast growth in global automobile industry. In the year 2006, the worldwide automobile production increased by around 4% from the previous growth of 3.1% in 2005. Region-wise, Europe was next only to Asia-Oceania in terms of automobile production in 2006.

In 2006, Russia became the fifth largest passenger car selling country in Europe. The Russian automobile industry represents the Russian manufacturing sector condition and ripeness of a modern purchaser. Russian automobile sector emerged as the one of the most dynamically growing in the world. Increasing customer awareness and shooting demand for international quality and performance out of local-made products has changed the former structure of Russian automobile industry and now more manufacturers are focused on foreign branded automobile production. As for future, Russia's entry to the World Trade Organization in 2007 will have a significant impact on the market and foreign players will be benefited from it.

Research Highlights

Increasing disposable income of Russian population has made the consumers to go for higher segment cars in Russia.
Russian tourism industry is also escalating the demand for cars.
Low car penetration rate in Russia indicates a huge market is still untapped for passenger segment.
More awareness and rising demand for more features and technology is paving the path for the foreign players, but it is also increasing the competition for domestic players.
Automobile industry is going to create a huge make for industries like steel, plastic, and motor insurance in Russia.
With the rising environmental concerns, the demand for hybrid cars will pick up momentum in the country.

Key Findings

In passenger car segment, foreign branded passenger cars are expected to register a higher growth rate than the overall segment during 2007-2010.
Russia's entry to the World Trade Organization in 2007 will reduce the Russian branded passenger car market share and it will further decline during the forecasted period.
Car stock per 1000 population is expected to increase with an AAGR of 5.6% during the forecasted period.
New passenger car registration is expected to increase at an AAGR of 6.52% from 2007 to 2010 in Russia.
High scope of Natural Gas Vehicles and Hybrid vehicles in Russia.

Key Issues and Facts Analyzed

Automobile production at global level as well as at regional level for 2006.
Global and region-wise automobile sales during 2005 and 2006.
Sales of passenger cars in different regions during 2005.
Automobile production by domestic and foreign manufacturers by types.
Import of new and second hand foreign branded cars.
Top selling foreign brands in the country in 2006.
Sale of passenger car by price segment in 2006.
Driving factors for the Russian automobile industry.
Opportunities and constraints for the automobile manufacturers.

Research Methodology Used

Information Sources

The information has been compiled from authentic and reliable sources like books, newspapers, trade journals, and white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, monitoring industry news and developments, and through access to more than 3000 paid databases.

Analysis Method

Methods like historical trend analysis, linear regression analysis using software tools, judgmental forecasting, and cause and effect analysis have been used in the report for a prudent analysis.

Content

1. Analyst View
2. Global Automobile Industry
- 2.1 Production
  - 2.1.1 By Region
  - 2.1.2 By Type
- 2.2 Sales
  - 2.2.1 By Region
3. Russian Automobile Market in Global Context
4. Industry Performance
- 4.1 Production
  - 4.1.1 Passenger Cars
  - 4.1.2 Commercial Vehicles
  - 4.1.3 Tractive Units
  - 4.1.4 Buses
- 4.2 Sales
  - 4.2.1 Passenger Cars
    - 4.2.1.1 New Passenger Cars
  - 4.2.2 Top Selling Foreign Branded Passenger Cars
  - 4.2.3 Passenger Cars - By Price Segment
- 4.3 Import
  - 4.3.1 New Foreign Passenger Cars
  - 4.3.2 Used Foreign Passenger Cars
- 4.4 Export
5. Industry Analysis
- 5.1 Driving Forces
  - 5.1.1 Auto Finance Industry
  - 5.1.2 Personal Disposable Income
  - 5.1.3 Employment
  - 5.1.4 Rich Population
  - 5.1.5 Economic Growth
  - 5.1.6 Tourism Industry
  - 5.1.7 Fuel Prices
  - 5.1.8 Lending Interest Rate
- 5.2 Opportunities
  - 5.2.1 Passenger Cars
  - 5.2.2 Motor Insurance
  - 5.2.3 Plastic Industry
  - 5.2.4 Expensive Cars
  - 5.2.5 Steel Industry
  - 5.2.6 Gasoline Retail Market
  - 5.2.7 Natural Gas Vehicles
  - 5.2.8 Hybrid Vehicles
- 5.3 Challenges
  - 5.3.1 Assembly Facilities
  - 5.3.2 Shrinking Market Share
  - 5.3.3 Supply Chain
6. Future Outlook (2007-2010)
- 6.1 Passenger Cars Forecast (2007-2010)
  - 6.1.1 Foreign Branded Passenger Cars Forecast (2007-2010)
  - 6.1.2 Russian Branded Passenger Cars Forecast (2007-2010)
  - 6.1.3 Passenger Cars Registration Forecast (2007-2010)
  - 6.1.4 Commercial Vehicles Forecast (2007-2010)
7. Key Players
- 7.1 AVTOVAZ OAO
- 7.2 GAZ OAO
- 7.3 General Motors
- 7.4 Renault
- 7.5 Hyundai Motor Company
- 7.6 Kia Motors Corporation
- 7.7 Zavod im. I.A.Likhachova OAO
- 7.8 Ul'ianovskii avtomob. zavod OAO
- 7.9 Izhevskii mashzavod OAO
- 7.10 KAMAZ OAO
List of Figures:
- Figure 2-1: Global - Automobile Production (in Million Units), 2000-2006
- Figure 2-2: Global - Automobile Production Share by Region (%), 2006
- Figure 2-3: Global - Passenger Cars Production (in Million Units), 2000-2006
- Figure 2-4: Global - Light Commercial Vehicles Production (in Million Units), 2000-2006
- Figure 2-5: Global - Heavy Trucks Production (in Million Units), 2000-2006
- Figure 2-6: Global - Buses & Coaches Production (in '000 Units), 2000-2006
- Figure 2-7: Global - Automobile Sales (in Million Units), 2005 & 2006
- Figure 2-8: Global - Automobile Sales by Major Region (in Million Units), 2006
- Figure 2-9: Global - Passenger Car Sales by Region (in Million Units), 2005
- Figure 4-1: Russia - Passenger Cars Production (in '000 Units), 2001-2006
- Figure 4-2: Russia - Russian Branded Passenger Cars Production (in '000 Units), 2001-2006
- Figure 4-3: Russia - Foreign Branded Passenger Cars Production (in '000 Units), 2001-2006
- Figure 4-4: Russia - Commercial Vehicles Production* (in '000 Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-5: Russia - Commercial Vehicles Production by Carrying Capacity (%), 2006
- Figure 4-6: Russia - Russian Branded Commercial Vehicles Production (in '000 Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-7: Russia - Foreign Branded Commercial Vehicles Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-8: Russia - Russian Branded LCV Production (in '000 Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-9: Russia - Foreign Branded LCV Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-10: Russia - Russian Branded MCV Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-11: Russia - Foreign Branded MCV Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-12: Russia - Russian Branded HCV Production (in '000 Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-13: Russia - Foreign Branded HCV Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-14: Russia - Russian Branded Tractive Units Production* (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-15: Russia - Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-16: Russia - Bus Production by Type (%), 2006
- Figure 4-17: Russia - Russian Branded Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-18: Russia - Foreign Branded Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-19: Russia - Russian Branded Mini Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-20: Russia - Foreign Branded Mini Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-21: Russia - Russian Branded City Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-22: Russia - Foreign Branded City Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-23: Russia - Russian Branded Intercity Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-24: Russia - Russian Branded Suburban Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-25: Russia - Russian Branded Tourist Bus Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-26: Russia - Passenger Cars Sale (in '000 Units), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-27: Russia - New Passenger Cars Sale (in '000 Units), 2001-2006
- Figure 4-28: Russia - Passenger Cars Sale by Price Segment (%), 2004-2006
- Figure 4-29: Russia - Passenger Cars Import (in '000 Units), 2001-2006
- Figure 4-30: Russia - New Foreign Passenger Cars Import (in '000 Units), 2001-2006
- Figure 4-31: Russia - Used Foreign Passenger Cars Import (in '000 Units), 2001-2006
- Figure 4-32: Russia - Automobile Export (in '000 Units), 2001-2006
- Figure 5-1: Russia - Personal Disposable Income (in US$/Head), 2001-2006E
- Figure 5-2: Russia - Unemployment (%), Feb 2006 & Nov 2006
- Figure 5-3: Russia - Number of High Earning Households (in '000), 2000-2006
- Figure 5-4: Russia - Nominal GDP (in Billion US$), 2001-2006
- Figure 5-5: Russian Federation - Retail Fuel Price Comparison with Major Countries (in US Cents/Liter), 2006*
- Figure 5-6: Russia - Gas Price Comparison with Major European Countries (in US$/'000 Cubic Meter), 2006
- Figure 5-7: Russia - Lending Interest Rate (%), 2000-2006
- Figure 5-8: Russia - Forecast for Passenger Cars Stock (per '000 Population), 2007-2010
- Figure 5-9: Russia - Motor TPL Insurance (in Billion RUR), 2004 & 2005
- Figure 5-10: Russia - Crude Steel Production (in '000 Metric Tons), 2004-2006
- Figure 5-11: Russia - Steel Consumption by Industry (%), 2005
- Figure 6-1: Russia - Forecast for Passenger Cars Sale (in '000 Units), 2007-2010
- Figure 6-2: Russia - Forecast for Number of High Earning Households (in Million), 2007-2011
- Figure 6-3: Russia - Forecast for Foreign Branded Passenger Cars Sale (in '000 Units), 2007-2010
- Figure 6-4: Russia - Forecast for Russian Branded Passenger Cars Sale (in '000 Units), 2007-2010
- Figure 6-5: Russia - Forecast for Passenger Cars Registration (in '000 Units), 2007-2010
- Figure 6-6: Russia - Forecast for Commercial Vehicles Production (in '000 Units), 2007-2010
List of Tables:
- Table 2-1: Global - Top 13 Passenger Cars Manufacturer by Production (in Units), 2005
- Table 4-1: Russia - Russian Branded Passenger Cars Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Table 4-2: Russia - Foreign Branded Passenger Cars Production (in Units), 2004-2006
- Table 4-3: Russia - Top Selling Foreign Branded Cars (in Units), 2005 & 2006
- Table 5-1: Russia - Passenger Cars Sale by Cash & Credit (%), 2000, 2005E & 2006E
- Table 7-1: AVTOVAZ OAO - Key Financials (in '000 RUB), 2002-2004
- Table 7-2: GAZ OAO - Key Financials (in '000 RUB), 2003-2005
- Table 7-3: General Motors - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2004-2006
- Table 7-4: Renault - Key Financials (in Million EUR), 2004-2006
- Table 7-5: Hyundai Motor Company - Key Financials (in '000 US$), 2005 & 2006
- Table 7-6: Kia Motors Corporation - Key Financials (in Million KRW), 2005 & 2006
- Table 7-7: KAMAZ OAO - Key Financials (in '000 US$), Mar 2006