Germany Autos Report Q1 2008

It's crunch time for Germany's new car market, as the future of new car sales in the country appears to be increasingly dependent on a forthcoming CO2-related tax regime. As BMI illustrates in the latest Germany Automotives Report, new car sales continued to fall in H207, erasing any hopes that a significant turnaround may be achieved before the end of the year. Car buyers may be putting off purchases until clear rules are set regarding how new cars are taxed in relation to their potential to pollute the environment.

According to data from the German office of statistics, Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt, new car registrations totalled 283,921 units in November 2007, down by 12.9% against the same month a year earlier. During the period January-November 2007, new car registrations reached 2,906,258 units, a fall of 8.2% on the prior-year period. Volkswagen (VW) continued to lead the market even though as a volume producer the carmaker has seen its domestic sales significantly hit in 2007. In November 2007, VW's sales plummeted by 17.6% year-on-year (y-o-y). During the 11-month period to November the carmaker sold 563,467 units, down by 10.3% y-o-y. Mercedes was VW's closest rival during the period, with sales dipping by 2.3% y-o-y to 306,832 units. Reflecting the dominance of German brands on the market, BMW completed the top three, with sales of 260,656 units, a fall of 2.5% y-o-y.

BMI reiterates its sales forecast for 2007 of 3.15mn units in light of the ongoing decline. We do not believe that the market has become mired in a downward spiral, however, and the popularity of German vehicles abroad will sustain the sector's growth until the new car market catches up. Indeed, both automotive exports and output have enjoyed strong results in 2007.

According to data from the German automotive industry association the VDA, in November 2007 passenger car output rose by 7.0% y-o-y to 552,800 units. During the period January-November, output totalled 5,355,700 units, an increase of 6.0% y-o-y. Exports also rose strongly during the period, by 11.0% y-o-y to 4,013,100 units. BMI has raised its forecast for 2007 for these items to 5.84mn units and 4.28mn units, respectively. We have also adjusted our forecasts up to 2012 accordingly.

The most significant industry developments this quarter relate to VW. In a boon to German industry, the manufacturer says it is preparing to boost output in Germany in 2008. According to industry sources, VW intends to raise output at its plant in Wolfsburg by more than 100,000 units in 2008. Production of the Golf Plus is expected to increase by 30,000 units to 434,000 units.