Greece Autos Report Q3 2009

The industry showed resilience to the global crisis until Q308. As BMI examines here, the market downturn of Q408 intensified in 2009 as the credit crisis cut deeper into consumer's pockets and diminished demand for expensive items.

According to Greece's Association of Motor Vehicle Importers - Representatives (AMVIR), a 5.5% yearon- year (y-o-y) fall in vehicle sales, down to 289,454 units, last year was followed by a staggering 58.7% y-o-y decrease to 35,839 units in 2M09. Slowing economic activity also weakened demand for commercial vehicles, which fell by 38% y-o-y to 2,709 units during the period. With our economic analysts highlighting possible concerns about the financial stability of the market this year, BMI has revised down its sales forecast for the industry by 10 percentage points (pps). We currently forecast a nearly 15% y-o-y drop in sales, down to 245,000 units, with most of the negative pressure coming from the passenger car segment. In 2010, credit lines are expected to remain fairly tight, although some improvement by year-end can be expected. We forecast 2010 sales to end only slightly higher than in 2009 at 246,000 units.

The fallout from the credit crisis and its impact upon the European car industry in particular, is evident from BMI's optimistic scenario of an 8-9% y-o-y drop in sales this year. Most governments have introduced incentive schemes to boost the market; industry associations in Greece are pressing for a more liberalised stance on allowing non-diesel vehicles on the road.

The passenger car segment continues to occupy more than 70% of the total market, followed by the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment. Ownership levels have been increasingly high in the past couple of years, which has translated into increased demand for small and mini cars. Hyundai's i10 and Fiat's Panda are the best-selling models in the latter segment, while former is dominated by Toyota Motor and Opel, with the Yaris and Corsa being the most popular, respectively.