Japan Autos Report Q4 2009

Government measures to promote sales of hybrid and other fuel efficient cars are beginning to have an impact on Japan's new vehicle market, albeit a marginal one. Monthly sales in June were down 14.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), compared to a 19% decline in May. However, while these figures are vast improvements on the 32% and 29% sales declines witnessed in March and April, respectively, BMI still stands by its forecast of a 5% drop in sales to 4.85mn units in 2009. Data for H109 show every carmaker posting a decline in sales compared with the first half of 2008 as the 12 domestic manufacturers registered combined sales of 2.186mn units, down 21.52% y-o-y.

Production has taken a worse downturn and has prompted BMI to drastically cut its production forecast to show a drop of 44%. Production for the first five months of 2009 was down almost half. There is some hope in that rising demand for hybrids and small cars has prompted Honda Motor to increase production at its domestic plants and re-introduce overtime shifts. Mitsubishi Motors (MMC) has also increased the number of working days at one of its domestic production facilities in July as it is anticipating a rise in demand for its Colt small car, linked to government incentives.

Despite a slight increase in its overall score, Japan stays in fourth in the latest BMI Business Environment Ratings. Just as Australia and South Korea suffer disadvantages due to their developed statuses, a saturated market also weighs on Japan's ratings. While the country scores well in terms of its country risk, with low levels of corruption and a sound legal framework that have bumped up the market's overall score, the auto industry is nearing full capacity, and this consequently reduces production growth potential, while the high level of vehicle ownership restricts possible sales growth. Labour costs are also high, which adds to the cost of expanding production, while a strengthening of the yen is reducing the competitiveness of exports.

In terms of the competitive landscape, the current downturn is providing a level playing field as all but one of the domestic brands recorded a double-digit decline in sales in H109. Nissan Diesel registered the weakest performance as its sales fell over 56% y-o-y, while small car specialist Suzuki Motor was the strongest brand, relatively speaking, as its sales fell just 9.62% y-o-y. Toyota continues to lead the market with a 26.68% market share, although this represents a decline from the 29.69% held at the end of Q109.

The company's sales fell 26.4% to 583,450 units.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Japan Autos SWOT
• Japan Political SWOT
• Japan Economic SWOT
• Asia Pacific Regional Overview
• Suppliers Struggle To Survive Crisis
• Business Environment Rankings
  • Table: Business Environment Ratings -- Autos Industry Asia Pacific
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Production & Sales
• Japan Autos Production & Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
• Commercial Vehicles
• Japan Commercial Vehicles Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs)
• Trade
• Japan Autos Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts
• Economic Contribution
• Japan Autos Sector, Economic Contribution - Historical Data & Forecasts
• Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
• Japan - Economic Activity
• Competitive Landscape
• Market Overview
• Japan - Vehicle Production By Company (CBUs)
• Japan - Vehicle Sales By Company (CBUs)
• Japan - Vehicle Sales By Company (CBUs)
• Alternative Fuels
• Industry Developments
• Suppliers
• Commercial Vehicles
• Japan - Commercial Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
• Japan - Commercial Vehicle Production (CBUs)
• Key Commercial Players
• Company Monitor
• Nissan Asia Pacific Regional Profile
• Company Profiles
• Toyota Motor
• Nissan Motor
• Honda Motor
• Mitsubishi Motors
• Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data
• Section 1: Population
  • Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  • Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
• Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  • Table: Education, 2002-2005
  • Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
• Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
  • Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
  • Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
  • Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
• BMI Forecast Modelling
• How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
• Sources