Poland Autos Report Q3 2009

In April, new car sales in Poland reached 28,736 units, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to estimates from the country?s automotive market research group, Samar. The figures, although a decline of almost 7.6% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, took total registrations to 116,702 units for 4M09, itself an increase of 1.5% compared with the period last year.

Polish car dealers have reportedly benefited from the significant weakening of the zloty against the euro, which has attracted buyers from Germany and Slovakia. Additionally, the market is also reaping the rewards of scrappage schemes introduced by some European governments. These have led to an overall increase in demand from foreign buyers.

However, the figures do not necessarily indicate a surge in domestic demand. Samar has pointed out that the difference between domestic sales figures and the number of vehicles registered in the country is 14%, which means that this is the percentage of cars purchased by overseas buyers seeking to exploit the weakened zloty. In Q1, 87,966 vehicles were sold in the country, a 1,2% increase over the quarter last year. However, only 75,991 vehicles were registered domestically, an 8.64% decline. Therefore while more purchases are being made in the country by overseas buyers, sales to Polish residents have fallen dramatically.

For the European car market as a whole, Samar has reported a y-o-y April registration drop of 12.3%, the twelfth consecutive monthly loss, with 1,251,862 units. In western Europe, the average fall in April was 11.6% (but this masks wide individual variations because in Germany and Austria, registrations actually increased). In Eastern Europe they were down by 21.4%. For 4M09, there were registration increases for Slovakia (0.3%), Poland (1.6%), and the Czech Republic (1.8%). However, there were sharp downturns in Slovenia (-26.5%), Hungary (-34.4%), and Romania (-58.6%).

BMI believes that the economy is well-positioned to emerge relatively unscathed from the downturn. In the longer term, the market has great potential due to low vehicle ownership levels: currently, there are only eight units for every 1,000 people. Additionally, a rise in average wages is likely to boost demand which could reach over 500,000 units, a 37% increase over 2007 levels, by end-2013, when our forecast period closes.