Singapore Autos Report Q1 2008

The downward turn in Singapore's new vehicle market has continued from 2006, although a strong economy should be enough to get sales back on track over the next five years. Sales for the year to October 2007 were down by 10.3% y-o-y at 113,589 units, compared with 126,621 units in the same period of 2006. Based on this performance, BMI has again revised its estimate for 2007 downwards, we now estimate sales for the year of 133,685, recovering to just over 147,000 units by the end of the forecast period in 2012, given our view of continued strength in the economy. The downside risk to this view would be inflation resulting from the economy's rapid growth in 2007.

Despite the contraction of the vehicle market, Singapore is still attractive as a regional hub thanks to its central geographical position. In July 2007, German automotive component manufacturer Bosch announced plans to invest US$90mn over the next four years in a regional IT and services centre in Singapore. The centre will provide IT support for Bosch's 200 Asia Pacific units and will also house a research and development centre. Due to become operational by end-2008, the centre will employ 60 engineers over the four-year period, while staff from other regional operations will be relocated.

The lack of vehicle production in Singapore is still a disadvantage for the market, as is the quota system, which restricts vehicle sales growth. These factors have contributed to Singapore's 10th place in BMI's Business Environment Ranking for the automotive industry in the Asia Pacific region. Moreover, while the vehicle ownership level is low at less than 10% of the population, high running costs in addition to the quota system, militate against car ownership. However, the business environment is also the least corrupt in Asia, according to Transparency International, while the country's economic prospects are healthy.

Any carmakers looking to set up sales operations in Singapore will face a market dominated by Japanese manufacturers. Toyota (including Lexus) accounted for 21% of the market in the year to October 2007, while Honda followed with a 15.5% share. Nissan and Mitsubishi follow with only Hyundai preventing a totally Japanese top five. Indeed, the Japanese manufacturers in the top 10 account for 59.4% of the total market. The prevalence of the premium segment is also highlighted by the presence of Germany's Mercedes and BMW in eighth and ninth places respectively. Continued rapid economic growth in Singapore could be to the advantage of such brands over the five-year forecast period.