Spain Autos Report Q3
2012

The ongoing gloom in the Western European markets is falling heavily on the Spanish autos production segment, with the first four months autos production declining a hefty 16.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to estimates from the Spanish autos association Anfac. With exports accounting for as much as 90% of Spain's vehicle production in 2011, it is not surprising that a more than 20% y-o-y fall in export demand between January and April 2012 has made Spanish carmakers cautious about stepping up their production. In view of this pessimism, BMI has revised down its forecasts for both the export and production segments to contract nearly 10% y-o-y and 12% y-o-y respectively in 2012. Meanwhile, there is little optimism in the domestic demand space. The downturn has continued well into 2012, with 4M12 new car sales declining by 7% y-o-y, according to ACEA estimates. Commercial vehicle demand, on the other hand, fell more than 24% y-o-y during the same period as the overall economic outlook deteriorates. Leading indicators, particularly unemployment and house prices have deteriorated significantly over the past three to six months and the National Statistics Institute estimates a 0.3% contraction in the country's real GDP in the first quarter of 2012. With the rest of the eurozone caught up in a pronounced slowdown, we hold on to our forecasts of a more than 6% y-o-y fall in vehicle sales in 2012, followed by a cautious 3.2% y-o-y growth in 2013. Depressed domestic demand and lacklustre production growth have meant that Spain has slipped to the tenth position in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings, down from eighth last quarter. The country lost some points due to depressed domestic demand for vehicles, while the likes of Poland and Turkey were quick to gain points on the back of new investments and fairly resilient domestic demand. In the medium to long term, however, there is scope for Spain to reclaim its position. While some help will undoubtedly come from the recovery in domestic vehicle sales, BMI believes that new production commitments from existing carmakers clearly create some room for optimism. In May 2012 itself, Nissan Motor revealed it will start manufacturing its e-NV200 all-electric van at its Barcelona facility in Spain by end-2013. The company will invest around EUR100mn (US$125.31mn) in the facility and its suppliers, with the van's production expected to generate nearly 700 new jobs. Nissan aims to produce 20,000 units of the van during the first year of production, with output to be exported to global markets. Things are also looking better for SEAT, which has shown encouraging signs of growth in 2011. The Spanish subsidiary's revenue grew 7% y-o-y, to EUR5.4bn, in 2011, thanks to an improvement in its export demand. However, although its operating results also improved, from a EUR311mn loss in 2010 to a EUR225mn loss in 2011, BMI stresses that a lot needs to be done for SEAT to make a positive contribution to its parent Volkswagen's finances.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Spain Autos Industry SWOT
• Spain Political SWOT
• Spain Economic SWOT
• Spain Business Environment SWOT
• Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends
  • Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012
• Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
• Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
  • Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
• Regional Overview
• Audi's Ducati Purchase: Rivalry Wins Over Strategy
• Macroeconomic Forecast
  • Table: Spain - Economic Activity
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Domestic Sales
  • Table: Spain Autos Sales
• Production
  • Table: Spain - Autos Production And Exports, 2011
  • Table: Spain Autos Production
  • Table: Spain Autos Exports And Imports
• Industry Overview
  • Table: Spain Autos Industry - Economic Data
• Industry News
• Passenger Cars
  • Table: Spain Passenger Car Segment
• Key Players
  • Table: New Car Registration Top 10 Players, 2011
• Company News
• Future Of Production
• New Investments
• Alternative Fuel Segment
• Commercial Vehicles
  • Table: Spain Commercial Vehicle Segment
• Company News
• Motorcycles
  • Table: Spain Motorcycles Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
• Segment News
• Company News
• Suppliers
• Company News
• Company Profiles
• Spain Autos Report Q3
• © Business Monitor International Ltd Page
• Volkswagen-SEAT
• Renault
• PSA Peugeot Citroën
• Demographic Outlook
  • Table: Spain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  • Table: Spain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  • Table: Spain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  • Table: Spain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
• BMI Methodology
• How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
• Sources