Ukraine Autos Report Q3 2009

The Ukrainian automotive market finds itself in trouble amid the global financial crisis. Sales of new cars fell to 44,258 over 4M09 compared with 58,911 in the period last year, according to a report by Atlant-M International Automobile Holding.

There was some evidence of a recovery, with some automakers reporting an uptick in demand in April following price cuts initiated by Hyundai in February. Toyota Motor reported a 30% improvement in sales in April compared with the monthly average in Q109, having cut prices by around 20%, and Nissan Motor posted a 16% sales rise. Premium car sales increased by 8% compared with the Q1 monthly average, with Lexus sales up by34%. However, these were improvements on a weak performance in the first quarter, and were not universal: most of the top ten best-selling firms experienced continued decline, with Hyundai reporting a 19.6% drop in sales in April compared with the Q1 monthly average.

Car dealers have still not shifted stock imported in 2008, and analysts expect that inventories will not be cleared until the autumn of this year. After this, particularly if the economy is showing signs of recovery, manufacturers may look to increase output and importers may order more vehicles. However, the sector's fortunes remain closely tied to the state of the overall economy, which took a hit first from inflation in 2008 and another this year from recession and political uncertainty.

Consumer confidence in the country has been devastated by the global financial crisis, which led to a near collapse of the country's banking system. As such, a loan of US$16.4bn had to be extended by the IMF.

Our economic outlook indicates increased depreciation of the hryvnia in 2009, which will further reduce demand for imported vehicles. However, the central bank's commitment to restore the currency's stability against the US dollar (at around 7.60-7.70 per US$) during the summer, a time when the currency usually appreciates, may give some respite to importers at a significant moment. However, should the restoration of exchange-rate targets be successful in the medium term, Ukrainian automakers will be vulnerable to a decline in the euro against the dollar, making their output less competitive on eurozone and euro-pegged markets.