Venezuela Autos Report Q1 2008

Publication Date	February 2008
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	51
ISBN Number	1749-0278
Product Code	BMI00218

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£425.00
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Summary

The most significant development in Venezuela's automotive industry in the final quarter of 2007 was the government's decision to introduce legislation aimed at cutting and controlling the number of vehicle imports entering the country. In this report we examine the likely impact this legislation will have on the future development of the market as well as gauge initial reaction from market players.

In November 2007 Venezuela's Ministry of Light Industry and Commerce, Milco, laid down legislation whereby the number of automotive imports entering the country will be strictly controlled. As from January 2008 manufacturers will only be able to import vehicles with Milco's approval and the body will assess the status of the national market before granting its decision. In accordance with the new rules, carmakers will have to submit their production and import strategies to Milco in September of every year and their application will be accepted or denied within 30 days. In order to fix the number of vehicles each carmaker may import into the country, Milco is expected to assess factors such as demand, local production plans, vehicle prices, sales records and fuel efficiency.

According to some industry insiders, car sales will fall in 2008 if imports are cut, a scenario we believe is likely in the short term. Carmakers may also see their sales targets hampered by taxes on financial transactions, as well as on luxury imports. It would certainly be unlikely that the pace of growth seen in 2007 in new car sales would be repeated in 2008. BMI has significantly raised its full-year sales forecast for 2007, due to the strong level of growth the market has experienced in that year. According to data from the Venezuelan automotive industry association, CAVENEZ, although new car sales were down by 7.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in September 2007 to 43,336 units, they soared by 49.3% to 346,189 units year-on-year (y-o-y) during the nine-month period to September. Our new forecast for 2007 therefore stands at 420,000 units.

Beyond this, BMI is forecasting a downturn in economic growth over the forecast period that may dampen car sales. In our view, economic growth will slow in H207 due to a weakening oil sector. While BMI expects GDP growth to come in at 8.5% in 2007, our forecast is for a sharp fall to 4.2% in 2008.

While it is clearly difficult to forecast sales up to 2012 at this point - in light of foreseeable government intervention - BMI expects significantly lower sales growth over the forecast period compared to levels seen in 2007, with sales of around 441,232 units in 2012.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Venezuela Auto Industry SWOT
Venezuela Economic SWOT
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT
Latin America Regional Overview
Trade Agreements In The Automotive Industry
Business Environment Rankings
Economics - Long-Term Risk
Politics - Long-Term Risk
CBU Output Growth
Vehicle Ownership/Penetration Potential
Regulation
Competitive Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Economic Contribution
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Latin America: Focus On Premium Cars
Regional Overview
Country Landscape: Venezuela
Market Size And Opportunities For Growth
Venezuela: Proportion Of Imports And Premium Cars Relative To Car Market, 2004-2005 (CBUs)
Venezuela: Large Car Imports By Brand And Model, 2004-2005 ('000 CBUs)
Customer Profile
Key Players
SWOT Of Venezuelan Premium Car Market
Competitive Landscape
Market Overview
New Investment
Industry Developments
Manufacturing Strength
Commercial Vehicles
Light Commercial Vehicles
Heavy Commercial Vehicles
Buses
Company Monitor: Volkswagen
Company Profiles
General Motors
Ford
Toyota
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Automobile Industry
Sources
List of Tables
- Table: Latin America Annual FDI Inflows
- Table: Venezuela Autos Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Sales Forecast Of Trucks And Buses By Vehicle Type
- Table: Venezuela Production Forecast Of Trucks And Buses By Vehicle Type
- Table: Venezuela Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Venezuela Autos Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity
- Table: Competitive Landscape: Regional Comparison
- Table: Prospects For Growth In Latin America's Premium Car Markets
- Table: Venezuela: Premium Car Market By Segment, 2002-2004 ('000 CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela, Jeep Sales By Model, 2004-2005 ('000 CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela, BMW Sales By Model, 2004-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela, Mercedes-Benz Sales By Model, 2004-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Auto Production, 2006 (CBUs)
- Table: Top Ten Carmakers By Sales, January-September 2007
- Table: Vehicle Production, January-September 2007
- Table: Venezuela Vehicle Market By Segment, 2000-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Vehicle Production By Segment, 2000-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Commercial Vehicle Registrations, Domestic Production Versus Imports
- Table: Venezuela Light Commercial Vehicle Registrations, Domestic Production Versus Imports, 2000-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Light Commercial Vehicle Registrations By Manufacturer, 2000-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Light Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer, 2002-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Light Commercial Vehicle Market Shares, 2004-2005 (%)
- Table: Venezuela Heavy Commercial Vehicle Registrations By Manufacturer, 2000-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Heavy Commercial Vehicle Registrations, Domestic Production Versus Imports, 2000-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Heavy Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer, 2002-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market Shares, 2004-2005 (%)
- Table: Venezuela Bus Registrations By Manufacturer, 2000-2005 (CBUs)
- Table: Venezuela Bus Market Shares, 2004-2005 (%)
- Table: Volkswagen Latin America Production
- Table: Volkswagen Vehicle Sales Jan-Sept 2007 (CBUs)

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Product features / use

Scope	Expert Insight/Opinion
Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted