The Automotive Technology Roadmap

Publication Date	January 2009
Publisher	Supplier Business
Product Type	Report
Pages	324
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	SUB00053

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Summary

Published January 2009, the Automotive Technology Roadmap is a unique collaboration between automotive business publisher SupplierBusiness, part of the IHS Global Insight group, and Ricardo. The report sets out the key drivers of change within the auto industry and analyses the current framework of competition for customers in terms of parameters including product performance, safety, OEM corporate structure, cost base and ownership, and supply chain issues and economies of scale.

The report goes on to examine each aspect of the vehicle in turn, including body structure, electrical and electronic control systems, passive and active safety systems, climate control, brakes, steering, suspension, wheels, chassis, driveline and transmission systems, advanced engine technologies, alternative fuels, hybrid systems, energy management and fuel cell vehicle systems. In each case, a comprehensive analysis of current state-of-the-art products is provided, together with the vision of the authors for the deployment of new technologies - including major potential disruptors - over a time horizon of approximately twenty years.

For each section Ricardo specialists have contributed their own insights and reviewed and validated the information gathered from external sources by SupplierBusiness. As such, while there is naturally much detailed level information which must remain confidential to Ricardo, the report provides a rigorous and well-researched vision of the future development of automotive technology which will be of significant value to SupplierBusiness customers.

Ian Kershaw, managing director of Ricardo Strategic Consulting in Northern Europe, said: "We are pleased to have partnered SupplierBusiness in the preparation of the Automotive Technology Roadmap report. Running to well in excess of three hundred pages, this report provides perhaps the most thoroughgoing examination currently available in published form of the likely technological development of the automobile over the next twenty years. Within the limits of what Ricardo can publicly disclose while protecting our clients' confidentiality, the comprehensive nature of the analysis provided is likely to be extremely useful those engaged at all levels within the global automotive industry, including investors."

Content

Introduction
- Ricardo Perspective
- Executive Summary
- Key Drivers to Technology Development
- Legislation and Regulation
- Greenhouse Gas/ Co2emissions
- Passenger and Pedestrian Safety
- Exhaust Emissions
- Recycling
- Competing for Customers
- Improving Fuel Economy
- Performance and Vehicle Dynamics
- Safety and Security
- Vehicle Design and Style
- Cost Control and Increasing Shareholder Wealth
- Vehicle Design and Testing
- Economies of Scale and Platforms
- Oems and The Tier Structure
- Modules and Sub-Assemblies
- Technology Trends Affecting The Industry
- Shortening Design and Replacement Cycles
- Systems Integration
- The Packaging Dilemma
- Electrics, Electronics and Mechatronics
- Availability of Diagnostic Information
Body and Systems
- The Body Structure
- Summary and Timeline
- Aerodynamics
- Body Concepts
- Modules
- Corner Modules
- Materials
- Lightweight Construction
- Aluminium, Magnesium and Hybrid Construction
- Plastics
- Hybrid Materials Technology
- Smc
- Nanocomposites
- Recycling
- Joining Technology
- Adhesives
- Welding
- Self-Piercing Rivets
- Paints and Coatings
- Rust-Proofing
- Paint Layers
- Types of Paint
Advanced Lighting Technology
- Summary Timeline
- Front Lights
- Intelligent Lighting Systems
- Rear Lights
- Interior Lighting
- Instrument Panel and Switch Lighting
- Ambient Lighting
- Colour
- Display Technology
- Head-up Display
- Intelligent Interior Lighting
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
- Design Presentation
- Validating The Headlamp and Lighting Design
- Market Penetration
- Safety
- Summary Timeline
- Passive Safety Systems
- Airbags
- Seat Belts
- Rear Seat Belts
- Active Head Restraints
- Occupant Detection Systems
- Structural Developments
- Compatibility
- Seat Safety Design
- Pedestrian Protection
- Active Safety Systems
- Vehicle Control and Rollover
- Electronic Stability Control (Esc)
- Asr (Anti-Schlupf-Regelung - Traction Control)
- Electronic Braking System (Ebs) or Electronic Brake Distribution (Ebd)
- Active Suspension
- Active All Wheel Drive (Awd)
- Collision Mitigation Systems (Cms)
- Collision Mitigation and Avoidance Systems (Cmas)
- Lane Departure Warning (Ldw) Systems
- Lane Keeping Assistance
- Adaptive Cruise Control (Acc)
- Accelerator Force Feedback Pedal (Affp)
- Torque Vectoring
- Sensor Technology
- The Sensitive Car
- Human-Machine Interface (Hmi)
- Drowsiness Detection Systems
- Alcohol Interlock
- Reversing Assist/Parking Assist
- Blind Spot Monitor
- Vision Enhancement
- Passive Night Vision Systems
- Active Night Vision Systems
- Advanced Vision Systems
- Voice Activation
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
- Consumer Demand
- OEM Demand
- Concerns over Litigation
- Concerns over Added Value
- Market Penetration
Interior Systems
- Climate Control Systems (Hvac)
- R744 Co2 Refrigerant Gas
- Modules and Packaging
- Infotainment - The Internet in The Car
- Platforms and Gateways
Autosar
- Telematics
- Online Services
- Bandwidths
- Aerials
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
Electronics
- Microprocessors
- Demands of The Automotive Industry
- Temperature Requirements
- Vibration and Shock
- Failure Rates
- Challenges for The Industry
- Bandwidth
- Standardisation
- Changes in The Automotive Industry
- Centralised Architecture or Decentralised Architecture?
- Automotive Bus Systems
- Decentralisation
- under-The-Hood and Body Control Buses
- Controller Area Network (Can)
- Local Interconnect Network
- Entertainment and Driver Information Systems
- Media Oriented System Transport (Most)
- Intelligent Transport System Data Bus (Idb)
- Digital Data Bus (D2b)
- Bluetooth
- Zigbee
- Car2car
- Dedicated Short Range Communications (Dsrc)
- Advanced Safety Systems
- Byteflight
- Flexray
- Time-Triggered Protocol (Ttp)
- Time-Triggered Can (Ttcan)
- Other Bus Systems
- Bus Coexistence
- Technology Development
- Fibre Optics
- Flat Cables
- Flexible Printed Circuits
- Programmable Logic Devices
- Software
Autosar
- Software Potential
- Standards Bodies
- Distributed Functions
- Security
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
- Appendix 1: Osi Protocol Description
- Appendix 2: Encoding Dictionary
Chassis Systems
- Summary Timeline
- Steering
- Electrically Power Assisted Steering (Epas)
- Surface Acoustic Wave
- Electro-Hydraulic Power Steering (Ehps)
- Electric Power Steering (Eps)
- Steer-by-Wire
- Active Front Steering (Afs)
- Four-Wheel Steering
- Automated Parking
- Suspension
- Active Body Control
- Anti-Roll Bars
- Adaptive Damping System
- Air Suspension
- Active Suspension
- Electronic Damper Control (Edc)
- Active Suspension Geometry (Asg)
- Semi-Active Suspension
- Active Electronic Suspension System
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
- Brakes
- Anti-Lock Braking System (Abs)
- Electronic Braking System (Ebs) or Electronic Brake Distribution (Ebd)
- Brake Assist (Ba)
- Autonomous Emergency Braking
- Ceramic Composite Brakes
- Brake-by-Wire
- Electro-Hydraulic Brake-by-Wire
- Electro-Mechanical Brake-by-Wire
- Regenerative Braking Systems and Brake Blending
- Vehicle Stability Systems
- Wheels and Tires
- Tire Pressure Monitoring System (Tpms)
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
- Four-Wheel Drive (4wd)
- Emissions and Fuel Economy
- Active Torque Dynamics (Atd)
- Safety and Awd
- Technologies and Challenges
- Electric Awd
- Integration of Control Systems
- Active All Wheel Drive (Awd)
- Torque Vectoring
- The Future for Chassis Design
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
Powertrain
- Industry Drivers
- Summary and Outlook
- Gasoline Engine Technology
- Fuel Efficiency
- Engine Technology Development
- Engine Downsizing
- The 2/4sight Engine
- Torque Enhancement System (Vtes)
- Variable Compression Rations
- Valve Technology
- Variable Valve Technology
- Electro-Mechanical Valve Control
- Cylinder Shutoff - Variable Displacement Engine (Vde) or Displacement on Demand
- Combustion Systems
- Gasoline Direct Injection
- Spray Guided Injection
- Alternative Engine Technologies
- The Music Engine
- The Duke Engine
- The Pivotal Engine
- Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (Hcci)
- The Daimler Diesotto Concept
- Diesel Engine Technology
- Weight Reduction and New Materials
- Commonrail
- Bosch's Third Generation Commonrail System
- Commonrail for Commercial Vehicles
- Piezo Technology
- Pistons
- Compacted Graphite Iron (Cgi)
- Diesels in The US
- The Economic Benefits of Engine Families
- Summary and Outlook
- Turbocharging
- Turbocharger Sectors
- Superchargers
- Turbocharging Versus Supercharging
- Wastegated Turbochargers
- Turbocompounding
- Charged Air Coolers (Cacs)
- Compressors
- Compressor Mapping
- Twin-Scroll Turbochargers
- Bearing Systems
- Micro Turbocharging
- Variable Geometry
- Multiple Turbochargers
- Electronic Controls and New Materials
- Titanium Compressor Impellers
- Assisted Turbocharging
- Exhaust Aftertreatment
- Gasoline (Petrol) Engine Emissions
- Diesel Engine Emissions
- Exhaust Gas Recirculation (Egr)
- Selective Catalytic Reduction (Scr)
- System Design
- Alternative Fuels
- Biofuels
- Ethanol
- Biodiesel
- Biofuels' Compatibility with Today's Engines
- Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Lpg) and Compressed Natural Gas (Cng)
- Hydrogen Enriched Compressed Natural Gas (Hcng)
- The Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine
- Hybrids
- Powertrain
- Batteries and Power Storage
- OEM Overview
- Summary
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
- Fuel Cell Vehicles
- The Different Methods
- Liquefied Hydrogen
- Compressed Hydrogen
- Methanol
- Gasoline Reformation
- Metal Hydrides
- Nanotubes
- Sodium Borohydride
- Cost Factors
- Fuel Cell Advantages
- Future Trends
Electric Vehicle Technology
- Ev Componentry
- Electrical Motors
- Ac Motors
- Dc Motors
- Synchronous Motors
- Switch Reluctance Machines
- Battery Technology
- Lead Acid
- Nickel-Metal Hydride (Nimh)
- Sodium Nickel Chloride (Nanicl)
- Lithium-Ion
- Li-Ion Technology Improvements
- Supercapacitors and Ultracapacitors
- Flywheel Energy Storage
- Energy Infrastructure
Transmissions
- Summary Timeline
- Consumer Preferences - Launch, Gearshift Quality and Vehicle Performance
- Transmission Costs, Investment and Installed Capacity
- Packaging, Safety and Weight
- Transmissions Technology
- Manual Transmissions (Mts)
- Automated Manual Transmissions (Amts)
- Dual Clutch Automated Manual Transmissions (Dct)
- Market Considerations
- Automatic Transmissions
- 6-Speed Automatic Transmissions
- 7-Speed Transmissions
- 8-Speed Transmissions
- Continuously Variable Transmissions (Cvt)
- Market Considerations
- Other Transmission Technologies
- The Infinitely Variable Transmission (Ivt) or Toroidal Transmission
- Antonov Automatic Driver (Aad)
- Zeroshift
- Hybrid Transmissions
- One-Mode and Two-Mode Hybrids
- Clutch Development
- Clutch-by-Wire
- Summary
- Vehicle Fitment to 2018 and Future Trends
Table of Figures
- 1: Change in Co2 Emissions (All Sources) for Oecd Countries, 2002 Relative to 1990
- 2: Passenger Car Fuel Economy/ Co
- 2 Reduction Progress Acea/ Jama/ Kama
- 3: The Relationship between Fuel Consumption and Co2 Targets
- 4: Top Runner Fuel Economy Standards (Km/L)
- 5: Relative Cost Versus Fuel Saving for Different Technology Bases
- 6: The Effect of Safety Technology Measures in Germany to 2005
- 7: Combustion Components in Exhaust Gases
- 8: The Link between Engine Development and Emissions Regulation
- 9: European and US Reductions in Emissions
- 10: Progressive Nox and Hc Emissions Limits in Europe, Japan and The US
- 11: Varying Consumer Perceptions by Car Type
- 12: Acea (European) Car Parc Characteristics to 2002
- 13: The Compromise between Body Acceleration and Wheel Loading
- 14: Engineering Design Parameters for Various Car Segments
- 15: Vw's Pq35 Platform as Used in The Golf
- 16: The Growth of Integrated Functions
- 17: The Relationship between Functions and Control Units to 2014
- 18: Increasing Electrical Power Requirements 1980-2005
- 19: Hgv Brake Diagnostics
- 20: The Automotive Profit Pool
- 21: Timeline for The Body Structure and Related Technology Elements
- 22: A Vehicle at Design Stage Undergoing Wind Tunnel Testing
- 23: Delphi's Quiet Corner Module
- 24: Faurecia's Audi A6 Front-End Module
- 25: Laser Welded Door Containing Three Different Steels
- 26: Friction Stir Welding
- 27: Laser Assisted Friction Stir Welding
- 28: Self-Piercing Rivet Process
- 29: Electrostatically Applied 'Nano-Particle' Clearcoat
- 30: Automotive Lighting Timeline
- 31: Mercedes-Benz/Hella - Active Light System (1)
- 32: Mercedes-Benz/Hella - Active Light System (2)
- 33: Hella's Swivelling Light Module
- 34: Hella's LED Headlamp Assembly
- 35: LED Light Cluster as Used in The Lexus Ls600h
- 36: Visteon's LED Rear Light Cluster
- 37: Hella's Variable Intensity LED Rear Light Cluster
- 38: Light Piping through Plastic Moulded Pipes
- 39: Visteon's Thin-Film Technology in Jaguar's Xk Instrument Cluster
- 40: Gm's Head-up Display
- 41: Vehicle Safety Systems Timeline
- 42: Autoliv's Adaptive Front Airbags
- 43: Autoliv's Inflatable Curtain
- 44: Autoliv's Inflatable Tube Airbag
- 45: Delphi's Passive Occupant Detection System
- 46: Autoliv's Pedestrian Protection System
- 47: Increasing Vehicle Dynamics System Integration
- 48: Hella's Advanced Lane Recognition System
- 49: Continental's Affp Gives Warning of Hazardous Situations by Vibrating and Exerting Counter Pressure in The Pedal
- 50: Continental's Rapid Reaction Accelerator Pedal
- 51: External Sensor Ranges
- 52: Hella's Active Night Vision System
- 53: Estimated Number of Microprocessors in A Vehicle
- 54: Requirements on Electronic Devices
- 55: Typical Temperatures in Which Automotive Electronic Components Must Function
- 56: Temperature and Shock Operating Conditions for Automotive Electronic Components
- 57: Failure Rate Requirements of Automotive Electronic Components
- 58: The Development of Processor Clock Frequencies
- 59: Domain Related Interconnected Architecture
- 60: Use of Can and Lin Buses in A Modern Car
- 61: Trends in in-Vehicle Network Architecture, 1995 - 2010
- 62: Telematics Roadmap
- 63: X-by-Wire Roadmap
- 64: Chassis Technology Timeline
- 65: Components of An Active System
- 66: Active Steering System Components
- 67: Variable Ratio Steering
- 68: Renault's Active Four Wheel Steer Systems as Fitted to The Laguna Gt
- 69: Continental's Air Suspension System
- 70: Bose's Fully Electromechanical Front Suspension Model
- 71: Continental's Electro-Hydraulic Combi Braking System Layout
- 72: Continental's Electronic Wedge Brake on Test
- 73: Continental's Regenerative Braking System Layout
- 74: Trw's Second Generation Slip Control Boost Brake Technology
- 75: Bosch's Yaw Torque Compensation System
- 76: Attributes of Lifestyle and Awd Wagons and Performance Awd Vehicles
- 77: Attributes of Suvs and Crossover Vehicles
- 78: Urban Road Transport Nox Emissions 1990 - 2015
- 79: Permitted Emissions for Cars by Class
- 80: Specific Emissions Targets
- 81: Comparison of Eu Light Vehicles against New Proposed Eu Co2 Limits
- 82: Current Car Manufacturers' Status against Eu Target
- 83: Technology Roadmaps for Gasoline Engines Focused on Co2 Reduction
- 84: Cost/ Benefit of Future Powertrain Choices
- 85: 2/4sight Prototype Engine
- 86: 2/4sight Engine Concept
- 87: Vcr Engine Efficiency at Various Power Levels
- 88: Nissan's Vvel System
- 89: A Cam-Less Engine Using Electro-Mechanical Valve Control on Test at Lotus
- 90: Valeo's E-Valve System
- 91: A Comparison of Wall Guided and Spray Guided Direct Injection
- 92: Cylinder Head Design Layout for A Four Cylinder Engine
- 93: A 3 Litre Equivalent Duke Engine
- 94: Water-Cooled Pivotal Piston Engine
- 95: The Effect of Diesel Engine Downsizing on Fuel Consumption
- 96: Continental's Piezo Injector
- 97: Delphi's Hp HD Diesel Common Rail System
- 98: A Comparison of Direct Acting Injectors Versus Servo-Hydraulic Injector Spray Patterns
- 99: US Diesel and Gasoline Prices in Comparison with The Wti Crude Index
- 100: Supercharged Audi 3.0l V6 Engine
- 101: Scania 12 Litre Euro Iv Engine with Egr and Turbocompounding
- 102: Compressor Map of A Turbocharger for Passenger Car Applications
- 103: Holset Vgt™ Turbocharging Technology
- 104: Tri-Turbo Concept from Mercedes Benz
- 105: Bmw Bi-Turbo
- 106: Turbocharging Technologies for High Pressure Charging
- 107: A Comparison between 1975 and 2009 Passenger Car Exhaust System
- 109: Heated Twc
- 110: Nox /Particulates Trade-off in Cooled and Non-Cooled Egr Systems
- 111: A Schematic Illustrating Scr
- 112: Diesel Particulate Filter
- 113: Diesel Exhaust Aftertreatment System Schematic
- 114: World Biofuel Targets
- 115: First and Second Generation Biofuels
- 116: Pros and Cons of First and Second Generation Biofuels
- 117: Well-to-Wheel Analysis for Biofuels
- 118: OEM Manufactured Cng/ Lpg Engine Options Are Limited
- 119: Cng Filling Stations in Europe
- 120: Bi-Fuel System Components
- 121: A Sunline Tranist Agency "Sunbus" with Cummins Westport 5.9-Litre B Gas plus Engine, Refuelling with Hcng
- 122: Toyota's Prius
- 123: Operation of The Toyota Prius under Different Driving Circumstances
- 124: Comparison of Fuel Cell Technologies
- 125: Mercedes-Benz B Class Fuel Cell Research Vehicle
- 126: Ballard's Fuel Cell Stack
- 127: Ford Fuel Cell Components
- 128: Ford's Focus Fuel Cell Vehicle
- 129: Current Projects and Prototypes
- 130: Typical Ev Component Layouts
- 131: A System Layout with Isolated High and Low Voltage Circuits
- 132: A System Layout with Isolated High and Low Voltage Circuits
- 133: Ev Motors
- 134: Switch Reluctance Machines
- 135: Energy Storage Overview
- 136: Battery Technology Evolution
- 137: A Typical Zebra Battery Module
- 138: Lithium- Ion Battery Pack
- 139: Energy Density Versus Output Density in Battery Systems
- 140: A Ragone Plot Showing Energy Density vs Power Density for Various Energy-Storage Devices
- 141: Nasa's G2 Flywheel
- 142: Transmission Trends Timeline
- 143: Advanced Transmission Potential Contribution to Overall Co2 Reduction
- 144: Segment Average Kerb Weight 1990 - 2006
- 145: Transmission Types: Strengths and Weaknesses
- 146: Increasing Penetration of 6 Speed Mts - Europe
- 147: Manual Transmission Volumes - Europe
- 148: Vw 7 Speed Dual Clutch Dct -Dq200
- 149: Schematic of A Dct
- 150: Luk's Dual Dry Clutch as Used in The Dq200 Vw 7-Speed Dct
- 151: Getrag's Dct Range to Be Launched 2007 - 2009
- 152: Zf's 7-Speed High Torque Dct
- 153: A Ravigneaux Gear Set
- 154: A Simple Epicyclic Planetary Gear Set
- 155: Zf's 6hp 6-Speed at (Front) Compared with A Previous 5-Speed at
- 156: Mercedes-Benz 7g-Tronic Automatic Transmission
- 157: Zf's 8hp 8-Speed at
- 158: Relative Fuel Savings for Ats
- 159: at Ratio Trend
- 160: Audi's Multitronic Cvt
- 161: Audi's Second Generation Multitronic Cvt
- 162: Increasing Torque Capacity of The Audi Multitronic Cvt
- 163: Jatco's Current Cvt Fitment Range
- 164: Cvt Production Volumes
- 165: Torotrak's Infinitely Variable Transmission
- 166: A Schematic of A Toroidal Transmission
- 168: Zeroshift Drive Rings
- 169: One-Mode Hybrid Input-Split Evt
- 170: Two-Mode Hybrid Input-Split Evt
- 171: One-Mode Hybrid Input-Split Evt
- 172: Two-Mode Hybrid with Input-Split and Compound-Split Evt Modes
- 173: Two Mode Hybrid Transmission