The Future of Global Automotive Materials Demand to 2020

Content

• Executive Summary
  • Introduction and report outline
  • The future of automotive materials consumption
• Drivers for change
  • What makes change happen?
  • Climate change, carbon emissions, and fuel economy
  • Climate change at an international level
  • Climate change at a national level
  • Sub-national measures
• Economic conditions and changes in market structure
  • The limits to growth
  • Conclusions
• Technologies and materials
  • Introduction
  • Materials use and the contemporary car
  • Materials use and car technologies
  • Long term perspectives
• Supply chains
  • Introduction
  • Sourcing strategies and the automotive industry
  • Commodity prices and the automotive industry
  • The steel industry
  • The aluminium industry
  • The plastic industry
  • Rubber
• Forecasts to 2020
  • Introduction
  • Calculating the 2005 base year materials consumption
  • The forecast assumptions: business as usual scenario
  • The forecast outcomes: business as usual scenario
  • The alternative scenarios: eco-austerity and technopia
• Conclusions
  • The overall material demand forecast
  • Materials demand and the supply industry
  • The key outcomes
• List of Figures
  • Table 1.1: Total material demand in the automotive sector by main region, 2005 base (million tonnes per annum - mtpa)
  • Table 1.2: A comparison of the relative materials content of three types of car: steel; aluminium; and plastic (%)
  • Table 1.3: A comparison of the relative materials content of three types of powertrain: conventional; hybrid and pure battery electric (%)
  • Table 1.4: Material choice criteria
  • Table 2.1: Three future scenarios for the automotive industry
  • Table 2.2: Prices for crude petroleum, US$ per barrel (unadjusted), selected years
  • Table 2.3: Coverage of global warming themes in the New Scientist, 2004 and 2005
  • Figure 2.1: The proportion of New Scientist coverage
  • Figure 2.2: Likely proportion of the 140g/km target to be reached by the top 20 brands by 2008/09, if current trends continue
  • Table 2.4: Fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions regimes around the world
  • Table 2.5: Actual and projected greenhouse gas emissions for new passenger vehicles by country, 2002, 2008 and 2014 (CO2 equivalent converted to EU NEDC test cycle; g/km)
  • Table 2.6: Japanese fuel economy targets for 2015: light duty passenger cars
  • Table 2.7: The proposed changes to the London congestion charging scheme
  • Table 2.8: Market share of the top ten models, selected markets, 1996 and 2006
  • Table 2.9 Segment market share in the UK: 1992 and 2007
  • Table 2.10 Brands, models, body styles and variants on the UK market, 1994 to 2008
  • Table 2.11: Passenger transport in Hong Kong
  • Table 2.12: Road deaths in 2003: absolute number and per 100,000 of population; selected countries
  • Table 2.13: Death rates and car ownership rates in selected countries
  • Table 3.1: Material proportions, ELVs in the UK in 2006
  • Table 3.2: Materials use in the average US family car, 1978, 1995 and 2003 (%)
  • Table 3.3: The proportion of vehicle mass attributable to different systems
  • Table 3.4: Inter-generational weight gain: the example of the VW Golf
  • Figure 3.1: Weight gain for European mid-range cars, 1970 onwards
  • Table 3.5: Logan production by assembly plant, H1 2007 and H1 2008
  • Table 3.6 Worldwide Logan sales, H1 2006, H1 2007 and H1 2008
  • Table 3.7: Mass-market and super-luxury cars: a simple comparison
  • Table 3.8: The constituent technologies of the e-Terrain Technology Concept
  • Table 3.9: Technical specification of the 2000 Toyota Prius II
  • Table 3.10: The Toyota Prius battery pack: technical specifications
  • Figure 3.2: The Toyota Prius battery pack
  • Table 3.11: Specification of the G-Wiz electric car
  • Table 3.12 Aluminium penetration in vehicle body applications, 2007 (%)
  • Table 3.13: A comparison of the relative materials content of three types of car: steel; aluminium; and plastic (%)
  • Table 3.14: A comparison of the relative materials content of three types of powertrain: conventional; hybrid; and pure battery electric (%)
  • Table 4.1: Transitions in vehicle manufacturers' sourcing strategies
  • Table 4.2: Material choice criteria
  • Table 4.3: Regional share of copper production
  • Table 4.4: Industrial consumption, copper
  • Diagram 4.1 Copper prices 2000 to 2008
  • Table 4.5: Regional share of aluminium production
  • Table 4.6: Industrial consumption, aluminium
  • Diagram 4.2 Aluminium prices 2000 to 2008
  • Table 4.7: Regional share of lead production
  • Table 4.8: Industrial consumption, lead
  • Diagram 4.3 Lead prices 2000 to 2008
  • Table 4.9: Regional share of zinc production
  • Table 4.10: Industrial consumption, zinc
  • Diagram 4.4: Zinc prices 2000 to 2008
  • Table 4.11: Regional share of nickel production
  • Table 4.12: Industrial consumption, nickel
  • Diagram 4.5 Nickel prices 2000 to 2008
  • Table 4.13: Regional share of tin production
  • Table 4.14: Industrial consumption, tin
  • Diagram 4.6 Tin prices 2000 to 2008
  • Table 4.15: The leading steel producing countries, 2006 and 2007
  • Figure 4.1: Share of world crude steel production: 2001, 2006, 2007
  • Table 4.16: The top 20 steel companies, 1996 (crude steel output, mtpa)
  • Table 4.17: The top 20 steel companies, 2006 (crude steel output, mtpa)
  • Table 4.18: Consumption of aluminium worldwide, 2005-2008 (mtpa)
  • Table 4.19: World rubber supply and demand, 2006 and 2007 (000 tonnes)
  • Table 5.1: Assumptions of average materials content per car, 2005 base (%)
  • Table 5.2: Assumptions of average materials content per car, 2005 base (kg)
  • Table 5.3: Material yield assumptions, 2005 base year calculation
  • Table 5.4: Material consumed per car, adjusted for material yield, 2005 base (kg)
  • Table 5.5: Total material demand by main region, 2005 base (mtpa)
  • Table 5.6: Three future scenarios for the automotive industry
  • Table 5.7: Market growth forecasts to 2020 (m units): business as usual scenario
  • Table 5.8: Average steel intensive vehicle weight forecasts, business as usual scenario (kg)
  • Table 5.9: Europe business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
  • Table 5.10: North America cars business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
  • Table 5.11: North America trucks business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
  • Table 5.12: Asia business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
  • Table 5.13: Other markets business as usual scenario mix of vehicle forecasts (% share)
  • Table 5.14: Forecast material yield assumptions for 2015 and 2020
  • Table 5.15: Steel intensive cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
  • Table 5.16: Aluminium intensive cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
  • Table 5.17: Plastic intensive cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
  • Table 5.18: Hybrid cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
  • Table 5.19: Battery electric cars forecast to 2020, business as usual scenario (m units)
  • Table 5.20: Assumptions of average materials content per steel intensive car, 2010 (%)
  • Table 5.21: Assumptions of average materials content per steel intensive car, 2015 (%)
  • Table 5.22: Assumptions of average materials content per steel intensive car, 2020 (%)
  • Table 5.23: Forecast average materials content per steel intensive car, 2010 (kg)
  • Table 5.24: Forecast average materials content per steel intensive car, 2015 (kg)
  • Table 5.25: Forecast average materials content per steel intensive car, 2020 (kg)
  • Table 5.26: Forecast total materials consumption per steel intensive car adjusted for material yield, 2010 (kg)
  • Table 5.27: Forecast total materials consumption per steel intensive car adjusted for material yield, 2015 (kg)
  • Table 5.28: Forecast total materials consumption per steel intensive car adjusted for material yield, 2020 (kg)
  • Table 5.29: Forecast total materials consumption for all steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield, 2010 (mtpa)
  • Table 5.30: Forecast total materials consumption for all steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield, 2015 (mtpa)
  • Table 5.31: Forecast total materials consumption for all steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield, 2020 (mtpa)
  • Table 5.32: World materials consumption for all steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
  • Table 5.33: Materials content of different types of car: aluminium; plastic; hybrid; and battery electric, adjusted for materials yield (kg)
  • Table 5.34: World materials consumption for aluminium intensive cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
  • Table 5.35: World materials consumption for plastic intensive cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
  • Table 5.36: World materials consumption for hybrid cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
  • Table 5.37: World materials consumption for battery electric cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
  • Table 5.38: World materials consumption for all non-steel intensive cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
  • Table 5.39: Total world materials consumption for all cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)
  • Table 6.1: Total world materials consumption for all cars adjusted for material yield (mtpa)