The Outlook for Retail Banking in Europe and the US

The impact of the financial crisis on competitive positioning and market development

Publication Date	June 2009
Publisher	Business Insights
Product Type	Report
Pages	134
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	RBI00314

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Summary

Global financial markets have suffered a serious impact from the financial crisis and economic recession. Only a few banks have escaped unscathed as the retail banking industry continues to adjust to shifts in the global financial and economic environment. The impact of these changes will drastically alter the retail banking landscape, with updated and coordinated international regulation, higher risk, capital shortages and a potential legislative separation of the retail and investment banking sectors.

'The Outlook for Retail Banking in Europe and the US' is a new report published by Business Insights that examines the impact of the financial crisis on the retail banking market in Europe and the US. It analyzes the current state of the sector, with an in-depth evaluation of the retail banking industry. Leading retail banks are assessed and ranked based on a variety of factors to compare performance, with key factors contributing to risk profiles and performance potential also provided. The report examines the influence of government intervention and explores the potential impact of future legislation upon the industry. It identifies the future implications for the retail banking market in Europe and the US in the next year and assesses emerging business models and corporate strategies for the future.

Key Findings

HSBC dominates the retail banking market in 2009, when assessed by total revenue. Citigroup's total revenues have fallen by almost 40%, while Bank of America experienced a year-on-year increase of 10.8%.

The US is likely to lose its dominance of the retail banking market, while European banks are growing in stature and are better placed to take advantage of opportunities in 2009. However, concerns are rising in the UK over aggressive government intervention.

A separation of retail and investment activity is required to prevent a future crisis. Reducing proprietary activities that present particularly high risks has become a key regulatory issue for the retail banking industry.

The key challenges facing the banking industry over 2009-2010 will be shortages of capital liquidity/lack of funding, high credit costs, and global price volatility. A process of de-leveraging in most major banks will also result in increased pressure on balance sheets.

Smaller banks and new entrants may have a strategic advantage in the current financial climate. Recent data in the US suggests continued lending from smaller banks, as larger rivals retrench.

Use this report to

Assess the condition of the retail banking market in 2009, understand the factors that led to the current financial situation and determine the retail banking outlook in Europe and the US over 2009/10.
Identify how the competitive dynamics of the global retail banking market have changed by comparing and ranking leading banks across a number of variables including market share, total revenue, net income, retail revenue, safety and brand value.
Evaluate the future prospects of leading retail banks by using this report's matrix analysis to compare performance and risk exposure for HSBC, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Banco Santander.
Understand the impact of current and future regulation on the retail banking market by examining the impact of government intervention and exploring the effects of new legislation upon operational performance and future risk.

Key issues...

Government intervention to support weaker banks.

Identify:

which banks have used government aid,
how recipient banks have deployed government aid,
which banks will require further assistance,
the social and political issues surrounding the government aid supplied by the US, UK, and Europe.

The potential impact of new regulation.

Understand:

the implications of recently introduced regulation,
future EU and US legislation scenarios,
the concerns over the impact aggressive regulation may have in restricting the recovery of the industry.

The debate surrounding the banking business model.

Understand:

the flaws/benefits of balance sheet versus securitization intermediation,
the call to separate future retail and investment activities.

Public confidence in the retail banking industry.

Analyse:

the impact of lost consumer confidence
the strain this is placing on the recovery of the financial sector
the strategies that can restore public faith.

Content

The Outlook for Retail Banking in Europe and the US Executive summary
Introduction
- Current market position
- Competitive dynamics
- Competitive benchmarking
- Legislation & regulation
- The outlook for 2009-2010
Chapter 1 Introduction
- What is this report about?
- Methodology
Chapter 2 Current market position
- Summary
- Introduction
- The origins of the Financial Crisis
- Financial Crisis Timeline: 2007-2009
- 1. US Sub-Prime Crisis & the start of the 2007 Credit Crunch
- 2. An attempt at recovery
- 3. The first big losses
- 4. The start of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis
- 5. The banks begin to fall
- 6. Black September
- 7. Rescue Plans
- 8. A Financial Crisis becomes an Economic Crisis
- 9. The New Year brings no relief
- The continuing risk
- The retail banking market as of Q1 2009
- Public trust has suffered
- Uncertainty characterizes the market
- The retail banking market has contracted
Chapter 3 Competitive dynamics
- Summary
- Introduction
- Change in leading retail bank rankings
- Market share increases of the top ten global banks
- HSBC dominates retail banking in 2009 when compared by total revenue
- European banks dominate when compared by total net income
- Bank of America earned the highest revenue from retail sales in 2009
- BBVA saw the highest net income from retail sales in 2009
- Other performance ranking metrics
- HSBC comes first in terms of Brand Value
- German banks dominate when ranked by safety
Chapter 4 Competitive benchmarking
- Summary
- Introduction
- Key performance indicators in the global retail market
- HSBC
- Summary
- Recent activity
- Financial strength
- Performance analysis
- Risk analysis
- SWOT
- Bank of America
- Summary
- Recent activity
- Financial strength
- Performance analysis
- Risk analysis
- SWOT
- JP Morgan Chase
- Summary
- Recent activity
- Financial strength
- Performance analysis
- Risk analysis
- SWOT
- Citigroup
- Summary
- Recent activity
- Financial strength
- Performance analysis
- Risk analysis
- SWOT
- Banco Santander
- Summary
- Recent activity
- Financial strength
- Performance analysis
- Risk analysis
- SWOT
- Consolidated performance matrix
- Consolidated risk matrix
- Shifting regional and competitive dominance
- US banks face growing fears of nationalization
- The ???Bad Bank??? strategy is growing more popular
- Bank of America and Citigroup are unlikely to survive intact
- JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo are the best-placed US banks in 2009
- Canadian banks are growing increasingly dominant
- European banks face a worrying capital deficit
- UK banks are losing their autonomy
- Nationalization has permanently altered the UK banking landscape
- Organic diversification is preferable to acquisition
Chapter 5 Legislation & regulation
- Summary
- Introduction
- The current banking model is under debate
- Balance sheet versus securitization intermediation
- Should retail and investment banking activities be separated?
- Expansionist policies are a priority
- Short term goals are needed to limit impact of crisis
- Long term goals must be implemented to prevent future crises
- Lessons can be learned from past mistakes
- The Swedish banking crisis offers valuable lessons
- Japan failed to act swiftly enough to prevent its own crisis
- Are we learning from their mistakes?
- Regulation must centralize
- An idiosyncratic approach is no longer practicable
- Greater sectoral analysis is needed
- Fragmented European approach must be made into unified front
- France and Germany call for stringent regulation while UK and US push for fiscal stimulus
- G20 vetoes international regulator
- A new Financial Stability Board will monitor cross-border consistency
- Regulation of the financial industry will be extended
- New legislation may impact banks' ability to function
- Free market vs. state intervention
- Strict capital & liquidity requirements will restrict banking activity
- Compensation will be more tightly controlled
- Operational challenges creating an open playing field
- The US will no longer dominate retail banking
- Key legislation
- Selected Government intervention as a result of the 2008 crisis
- The US Financial Stability Plan
- The UK Banking Act 2009
- Economic Recovery Plan
Chapter 6 The outlook for 2009-2010
- Summary
- Introduction
- Forecast for economic growth in 2009-2010
- World growth is expected to decline
- The retail sector is now having an adverse effect on banks
- Governments will continue providing fiscal stimulus through 2010
- Key risks facing the banking industry
- Banks must update their business models to survive
- New criteria for success
- Consolidation may hold hidden dangers
- Smaller banks may have a strategic advantage
- The road lies open for new enterprise
- Multinational scope of banking may reduce
- Long-term implications for the retail banking industry
- Risk is vital in predicting future performance
- Regulation will have the biggest impact on retail banking in 2009-2010
Chapter 7 Appendix
- Research methodology
- Retail Revenue & Net income Data, Chapter Two
Consolidated performance & risk matrices, Chapter 4
Exchange Rates
Glossary
Index
List of Figures
- Figure 2.1: Retail banking market value 2007 compared to 2009 ($bn)
- Figure 3.2: Change in leading retail bank rankings, 2008 and 2009
- Figure 3.3: Top ten global retail banks by total revenue ($bn), 2007 and 2008
- Figure 3.4: Top ten retail banking brands 2009 (brand value in $bn)
- Figure 4.5: HSBC SWOT analysis
- Figure 4.6: Bank of America SWOT
- Figure 4.7: JP Morgan Chase SWOT
- Figure 4.8: Citigroup SWOT
- Figure 4.9: Banco Santander SWOT
List of Tables
- Table 2.1: Top ten worldwide banks by market capitalization at Jan 15th 2009
- Table 3.2: Top ten global retail banks by market share, 2008
- Table 3.3: Top ten global banks by market share, 2009 (estimated)
- Table 3.4: Leading global retail banks by total net income ($bn), 2009
- Table 3.5: Global banks by retail revenue ($bn), 2009
- Table 3.6: Global banks by net income from retail segments ($bn), 2007 and 2008
- Table 3.7: Top ten safest banks in the world, 2009
- Table 4.8: HSBC summary
- Table 4.9: Bank of America summary
- Table 4.10: JP Morgan Chase Summary
- Table 4.11: Citigroup Summary
- Table 4.12: Banco Santander summary
- Table 4.13: Consolidated performance matrix of top ten global retail banks by revenue
- Table 4.14: Consolidated risk matrix of top ten global retail banks by revenue
- Table 7.15: Business segments by bank
- Table 7.16: Exchange rates used in this report