Brazil Insurance Report Q4 2009

This report was written in early August 2009. Relative to the Q309 report, the main changes have been a review of the company profiles - both local and multinational. We have also included a large quantity of new data. In virtually all cases the regulator or the trade association have published final premium figures for 2008, which was not necessarily the case in May, when we prepared the Q309 reports. In many instances, we have revised our projections of non-life penetration and life density. This is because it has become clear that the linear progressions that we had been expecting for most countries are not an accurate reflection of what has been happening in recent months. As a consequence, we have much greater confidence in our forecasts of premium income for 2009.

Early 2009 was in many ways a challenging but far from disastrous period for the major protagonists in most insurance markets. Notwithstanding the fact that particular non-life markets suffered as a result of a slump in the number of cars registered, and correspondingly lower demand for compulsory third party motor (CTPM) insurance and voluntary motor insurance, global non-life premiums generally held up well in spite of the global economic downturn. In contrast, life premiums were, in most markets, lower in Q109 than they had been in Q108. This was largely the result of the past volatility in global equity markets, although there were also other problems. Conditions remain fair in the global reinsurance market.

In terms of the major regions whose insurance markets are covered by BMI's reports, Latin America and the Middle East and North Africa stood out in terms of growth in premiums (in non-life insurance in particular, but also in life insurance). Conditions were far more mixed in Central and Eastern Europe (particularly in non-life insurance, where the downturn in car registrations hit hard) and Asia Pacific, where various factors caused slippage in life premiums in many markets.