Mexico Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2009

Our forecasts reveal a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 9.7% in US dollar terms for Mexico's total drug market value, which is forecast to reach US$15.7bn by 2013. Per-capita pharmaceutical spending will increase from US$92.60 in 2008 to US$141.60 by 2013. We believe that the OTC segment will see a gradual decline in total drug market share by value as generic medicines experience an uptake in interest. This is contrast to the more traditional preference for self-medication. As the health insurance policies become more widely implemented, people will be more likely to consult a physician and therefore our legal prescription market expenditure will increase from 88% of the total drug market in 2008 to 91% by 2013.

The number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to communicable diseases in Mexico will fall from 1.9mn in 2008 to 1.0mn by 2030. The DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases in Mexico will rise from 9.4mn in 2008 to 10.7mn by 2030. We highlight that DALYs do not reflect the prevalence of a disease, or number of people affected by or dying from one, but rather are a measure of the number of years lost in productivity as a result of having had, or still having a disease.

Since May 2009, Mexico has been the centre of the swine flu (H1N1) outbreak as it was revealed that the virus jumped the species barrier in the country, and subsequent human transmission has claimed the lives of 103 people. While this remains the highest death rate attributed to swine flu in the world, Mexican drug regulatory authorities have issued public health warnings and escalated their activities to ensure patient safety and control.

The pharmaceutical supply chain has been highlighted by the Mexican consumer protection agency (PROFECO) and the Federal Commission for the Protection Against Sanitary Risk (COFEPRIS) as a possible point of weakness. The country has increased its imports of Roche's Tamiflu (oseltamivir) and GlaxoSmithKline's Relenza (zanamivir) to cope with the flu outbreak, with the Ministry of Health revealing that the country has adequate supplies of antivirals. Both drugs are dispensed for free, through prescription only, to suspected cases in Mexico.

The heightened activity by the regulatory agencies in the country will have a positive effect on the retail practices for all prescription and controlled drugs. We emphasise that this is of particular significance in Mexico, where inconsistencies in inspections and the lack of a unified approach by the regulatory bodies has been exploited by criminals to supply fake drugs.