Turkey Commercial Banking Report

Publication Date	October 2006
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	43
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI00061

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£395.00
approximately: $575 | €456

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Summary

Key Issues

After years of economic volatility, a level of confidence in Turkey's banking sector appears to be returning. The banking sector is indeed enjoying a boom time driven by loan growth fuelled by low interest rates. Loan growth in local currency terms grew 50% in the year to March 31 2006, and deposit and asset growth was 29%. The Turkey banking sector is still significantly underdeveloped, and given the low loan/deposit ratio and loan/asset ratio, very strong loan growth can easily be funded by Turkish banks.

The risk to the outlook for the banking sector is at the macro level: a crisis of investor confidence that could result in currency volatility and foreign investment moving out of Turkey. Foreign investment has been important in funding the large currency account deficit Turkey has.

The banking sector is also benefiting from consolidation and the entry of foreign players. This has proved positive for sector growth and has not been detrimental to profit margins. Indeed, profitability for banks in Turkey has tended to improve strongly in the last quarter as evidenced by results from the mid-sized players such as Turkiye Garanti Bankasi.

Changes To This Quarter's Commercial Banking Forecast

We have made a number of improvements to the commercial banking reports this quarter. In particular, we have collated information about banks' capital and bond portfolios.

We have looked at capital primarily because we wanted to produce a clearer picture of the banks' balance sheets and, in particular, the liabilities side. We are now much better able to quantify liabilities that are not deposits.

We collated information about the bond portfolios because we wanted to gain additional insights about the risks with which the banks are involved. Across all the countries that we have surveyed, the commercial banks are major investors in government securities. In some instances, the banks are large holders of bonds - by any standard. In other instances, the banks' holdings of securities represent a very substantial portion of their total assets.

Content

Chapter 1 - Key Issues
- Changes To This Quarter's Commercial Banking Forecast
- Turkey Commercial Banking SWOT
Chapter 2 - Latest Developments - Q3 2006
Chapter 3 - International Context - Lending Trends And External Accounts
- Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts
- Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts
Chapter 4 - International Context - Total Assets, Loans and Deposits
- Table: Middle East and Africa - Comparison Of Total Assets, Loans And Deposits
Chapter 5 - International Context - Year-On-Year Growth Rates
- Table: Middle East and Africa - Comparison Of Year-On-Year Growth Rates
Chapter 6 - International Context - Per Capita Deposits
- Table: Middle East and Africa - Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits (US$)
Chapter 7 - Macroeconomic Trends And Developments
- Economics: BMI Core Scenario
- Politics: BMI Core Scenario
- Economic Activity
- Table: Economic Indicators
Chapter 8 - Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Levels As At Saturday, December 31 2005
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2006-2010
- Comment On Forecasts
- Comment on Trends
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Middle East & North Africa
Chapter 9 - Competitive Landscape
- Table: Competitive Landscape Snapshot of Turkey's Commercial Banks As At September 30 2004
Chapter 10 - Variations In Competitive Landscape
- Table: Variation In Competitive Landscape (September 30 2003 - September 30 2004)
Chapter 11 - Market Protagonists
Chapter 12 - Methodology
- Process Used For Commercial Banking Reports
Chapter 13 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data
- The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)
- Population
- Household Spending Per Capita, US$
- Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP
- Market Size, GDP, US$bn
Chapter 14 - Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown
- Section 2: Education & Healthcare
- Table: Education
- Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics
- Table: Healthcare: Expenditure
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators
- Table: Consumption and Stratification

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Product features / use

Scope	Expert Insight/Opinion
Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted