Venezuela Commercial Banking Report

Publication Date	October 2006
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	43
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI00065

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£395.00
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Summary

Key Issues

The Venezuelan commercial banking sector has continued booming on the back of expanding domestic consumption, fuelled by excessive government spending and the oil-led export boom. Aside from their holdings of bonds, most aspects of the commercial banks' balance sheets have been growing very strongly. Loans have been growing significantly faster than assets, deposits or nominal GDP. The result of this is that the loan/asset, loan/deposit and loan/GDP ratios have all risen over the last year or so but by most standards, they remain at very low levels.

Looking forward, real negative interest rates and generous fiscal spending are likely to continue stimulating domestic demand as the government shies away from implementing the tough monetary and fiscal policies necessary to curb rampant inflation before the up-coming presidential elections. Demand for credit will also be further stimulated by government intervention.

Nevertheless, it is possible to identify two key challenges. One is that, at a time of soaring banking profits, the Venezuelan banking regulator continues tightening the regulatory framework, even limiting some key profit sources such as service charges. The other is that Venezuela is likely to face substantial difficulties reducing double-digit inflation without choking economic growth.

Changes To This Quarter's Commercial Banking Forecast

We have made a number of improvements to the commercial banking reports this quarter. In particular, we have collated information about banks' capital and bond portfolios.

We have looked at capital primarily because we wanted to produce a clearer picture of the banks' balance sheets and, in particular, the liabilities side. We are now much better able to quantify liabilities that are not deposits.

We collated information about the bond portfolios because we wanted to gain additional insights about the risks with which the banks are involved. Across all the countries that we have surveyed, the commercial banks are major investors in government securities. In some instances, the banks are large holders of bonds - by any standard. In other instances, the banks' holdings of securities represent a very substantial portion of their total assets.

Content

Chapter 1 - Key Issues
- Changes To This Quarter's Commercial Banking Forecast
- Venezuela Commercial Banking SWOT
Chapter 2 - Latest Developments - Q306
Chapter 3 - International Context - Lending Trends And External Accounts
- Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts - Latin America
- Table: Comparison Of Lending Trends And External Accounts - Latin America
Chapter 4 - International Context - Total Assets, Loans And Deposits
- Table: Latin America - Comparison Of Total Assets, Loans And Deposits
Chapter 5 - International Context - Year-on-Year Growth Rates
- Table: Latin America
Chapter 6 - International Context - Per-Capita Deposits
- Table: Latin America - Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits (US$)
Chapter 7 - Macroeconomic Trends And Developments
- Economics: CHAPTER - BMI Core Scenario
- Politics: CHAPTER - BMI Core Scenario
- Economic Activity
- Table: Economic Activity Indicators
Chapter 8 - Industry Forecast Scenario
- Comment On The Past
- Table: Levels As At Friday March 31 2006
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2006-2010
- Comment On Forecasts
- Comment On Trends
- Table: Latin America - Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
Chapter 9 - Banks' Bond Portfolios
- Table: Latin America - Bond Portfolios
Chapter 10 - Competitive Landscape
- Table: Competitive Landscape Snapshot of Venezuela's Commercial Banks As At December 31 2004
Chapter 11 - Variations in Competitive Landscape
- Table: Variation In Competitive Landscape December 31 2003-December 31 2004
Chapter 12 - Market Protagonists
Chapter 13 - Methodology
- Process Used For Commercial Banking Reports
Chapter 14 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data
- Table: Wages (ave per annum), US$
- Table: Population
- Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$
- Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP
- Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn
Chapter 15 - Country Snapshot: Venezuela Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population:
- Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown
- Section 2: Education & Healthcare
- Table: Education
- Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics
- Table: Healthcare: Expenditure
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators
- Table: Consumption and Stratification

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Product features / use

Scope	Expert Insight/Opinion
Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted