Sizing and Forecasting the UK Plastic Card market

Content

• Overview
• Catalyst
• Summary
  • Uk Plastic Card Market In Review And Future Outlook
• Introduction
  • Payments Cards Have Gained Importance In The Uk Payments Landscape
  • The Uk Plastic Card Market Continued To Grow In 2007 And This Trend Is Set To Continue
  • Card Spending Is Equal To 63% Of The Value Of Retail Sales
  • This Has Been Manifested In The Increased Use Of Payment Cards
  • Datamonitor Forecasts That The Value Of Payment Card Spending Will Reach 750 Billion In 2012
  • The Credit Crunch And The Economic Slowdown Have Created A Headache For Credit Card Issuers
  • A Deteriorating Economic Situation Poses Many Threats For Credit Card Issuers
  • A Dramatic Fall In Consumer Confidence Has Underpinned Issuers' Worries
  • While Optimism About Future Employment Fades, There Are Mixed Views On Spending
  • House Prices, The Cornerstone Of Consumer Spending For The Last Decade, Have Started To Fall
  • Unemployment Has Started To Rise, Further Repressing Spending And Lowering Sentiment
  • However, The Level Of Personal Insolvencies In The Uk Appears To Be Falling
  • The Credit Card Market Has Been Robust So Far In 2008, In The Face Of Falling Consumer Confidence
  • Credit Card Transactions Have Been Steady So Far In 2008
  • After Two Years Of Falling Outstandings, Credit Card Debt Is On The Rise Again
  • The Strong Performance Of The Card Market In The First Half Of 2008 Could Be Masking Some Dangerous Developments
  • Falling Levels Of Consumer Confidence Appears To Be Boosting Credit Card Spending In The Near Term, But Could Spell Trouble
  • Having Peaked In 2004, The Value Of Balance Transfers Continues To Fall
  • Datamonitor Believes The Outlook For Card Issuers Hinges On Employment
  • The Outlook For Issuers Really Hinges On The Level Of Employment
  • The Consumer Confidence Index Does Not Appear To Be Reflected In Consumer Behavior
  • The Fall In House Prices Should Be Seen In The Context Of The Bigger Picture
  • Personal Insolvencies Are Continuing To Fall
  • Datamonitor Is Cautiously Optimistic About The Outlook For The Uk Cards Market
  • Market Statistics And Key Trends
  • Credit And Debit Cards Continue To Dominate The Market In Terms Of Issuance
  • There Are Now More Debit Cards Than Credit Cards
  • The Number Of Credit Cards Has Been In Decline Since 2005
  • Private Label Cards Have Been In Decline Since 2003
  • Multiple Cardholding Continues To Be An Important Feature Of The Market
  • Within The Credit Card Market, The Number Of Co-Branded And Premium Cards Grew At The Expense Of Standard Varieties From 2003-07
  • The Private Label Card Market Remains In Decline
  • Limited Acceptance And Card Limits-And Consequently Usage-Have Severely Restricted Issuer Profitability
  • Datamonitor Cards And Payments Team View
  • Debit Cards Continue To Account For The Lion's Share Of Card Activity
  • More Than 76% Of All Plastic Card Transactions Were Made By Debit Card In 2007
  • Debit Cards Are The Most Frequently Used Card Product
  • In 2007, Over Two Thirds Of The Value Of Total Plastic Card Transactions Were Accounted For By Debit Cards
  • Average Transaction Values Are Highest On Charge Cards
  • Card Turnover Is Highest On Charge Cards, However, Debit Cards Enjoy The Greatest Total Activity Per Adult
  • Uk Consumers Have Shown A Growing Willingness To Use Plastic Cards For Payments And When Abroad
  • Uk Consumers Are Using Payment Cards For More Purchase Transactions Than Ever Before
  • This Trend Is Most Evident In The Debit Card Market
  • Credit Cards Have Traditionally Been Used For Purchases
  • Purchases Dominate Transactions Abroad But Cash Acquisition Transactions Are Growing In Importance
  • By 2007, Debit And Credit Cards Counted For Equal Shares Of The Value Of Payments Abroad
  • Growth In Online Commerce Represents A Major Opportunity
  • The Increase In Card Use Has Been Bolstered By The Expanding Infrastructure
  • The Growth In The Number Of Atms Has Been Fueled By The Independent Sector
  • However, The Number Of Fraudulent Transactions Is On The Rise Again
  • The Successful Introduction Of Chip & Pin Has Led To Growth Of Card-Not-Present Fraud
  • The Value Of Fraudulent Transactions Has Slightly Risen To 535 Million
• Summary
  • Forecasting The Uk Payment Card Market
  • Datamonitor's Forecast For The Uk Plastic Card Market
  • Datamonitor Forecasts Annual Growth In The Value Of Payment Card Transactions Of 5.9% To 2012
  • Datamonitor's Forecasting Model Assesses The Relationship Of Macroeconomic Factors With Respect To Consumer Credit Products
  • Datamonitor Bases Its Neutral View On Forecasts Provided By The Treasury
  • Forecasting The Credit Card Market
  • Datamonitor Forecasts Annual Growth In The Credit Card Market Of 2.0% To 2012
  • Under An Optimistic View Of Future Economic Performance, Datamonitor Forecasts An Annual Growth Of 2.9%
  • Under A Pessimistic View Of Future Economic Performance, Datamonitor Forecasts Annual Growth Of 0.7%
  • Forecasting The Charge Card Market
  • Datamonitor Forecasts Annual Growth In The Charge Card Market Of 1.8% To 2012
  • Forecasting The Debit Card Market
  • Datamonitor Forecasts Annual Growth In The Debit Card Market Of 7.6% To 2011
  • Forecasting The Private Label Card Market
  • Datamonitor Forecasts That The Private Label Card Market Will Decline At An Annual Average Rate Of 5.1% To 2012
• Appendix
  • Supplementary Data
  • Definitions
  • Aagr
  • Apacs
  • Average Transaction Value
  • Balances Outstanding
  • Bank Of England Base Rate
  • Cagr
  • Charge Card
  • Credit Card
  • Cvv
  • Debit Card
  • Emv
  • Fraudulent Use Of Card Details (Card-Not-Present Fraud), Also Known As Fraud On Phone, Mail Order Or Internet Transactions
  • Interchange
  • Non-Standard
  • Oft
  • Methodology
  • Primary Research
  • Secondary Research
  • Further Reading
  • Ask The Analyst
  • Datamonitor Consulting
  • Disclaimer
• List Of Tables
  • Table 1: Growth In The Uk Payment Card Market, 2003-07
  • Table 2: Datamonitor's Five-Year Forecast For The Uk Plastic Card Market, 2008-12
  • Table 3: Number Of Uk Payment Cards In Issue By Type, 2003-07
  • Table 4: Credit Cards In Issue In The Uk By Type, 2003-07 (000s)
  • Table 5: Number Of Transactions Made On Uk-Issued Payment Cards By Product Line, 2003-07
  • Table 6: Frequency Of Transaction By Card Type In The Uk, 2003-07
  • Table 7: Value Of Uk-Issued Plastic Card Transactions By Product Line, 2003-07
  • Table 8: Average Value Of Uk-Issued Plastic Card Transactions By Product Line, 2003-07
  • Table 9: Datamonitor's Forecast For The Uk Plastic Card Market, 2007-12
  • Table 10: Forecast Performance Of The Uk Consumer Credit Market Drivers Under The Neutral Scenario, 2007-12
  • Table 11: Datamonitor's Five-Year Forecast For The Uk Credit Card Market, 2007-11
  • Table 12: Market Drivers For The Uk Credit Card Market Under Datamonitor's Forecasting Scenario, 2002-11 (1/2)
  • Table 13: Market Drivers For The Uk Credit Card Market Under Datamonitor's Forecasting Scenario, 2002-11 (2/2)
  • Table 14: Datamonitor's Five-Year Forecast For The Uk Credit Card Market Under An Optimistic Scenario, 2008-12
  • Table 15: Forecast Performance Of The Uk Consumer Credit Market Drivers Under The Optimistic Scenario, 2007-12
  • Table 16: Market Drivers For The Uk Credit Card Market Under An Optimistic Scenario, 2003-12
  • Table 17: Datamonitor's Five-Year Forecast For The Uk Credit Card Market Under A Pessimistic Scenario, 2008-12
  • Table 18: Forecast Performance Of The Uk Consumer Credit Market Drivers Under The Pessimistic Scenario, 2007-12
  • Table 19: Market Drivers For The Uk Credit Card Market Under An Pessimistic Scenario, 2003-12
  • Table 20: Datamonitor's Five-Year Forecast For The Uk Charge Card Market, 2008-12
  • Table 21: Market Drivers For The Uk Charge Card Market Under Datamonitor's Forecasting Scenario, 2003-12
  • Table 22: Datamonitor's Five-Year Forecast For The Uk Debit Card Market, 2008-12
  • Table 23: Market Drivers For The Uk Debit Card Market Under Datamonitor's Forecasting Scenario, 2003-12
  • Table 24: Datamonitor's Five-Year Forecast For The Uk Private Label Card Market, 2008-12
  • Table 25: Market Drivers For The Uk Private Label Card Market Under Datamonitor's Forecasting Scenario, 2003-12
  • Table 26: Value Of Online Spending In The Uk, 1998-2007, (m)
  • Table 27: Current Relevant Datamonitor Publications, 2008
  • Table 28: Future Relevant Datamonitor Publications, 2008
• List Of Figures
  • Figure 1: The Proportion Of Total Consumer Transaction Value Accounted For By Cards Has Increased, 2003-2007
  • Figure 2: The Value Of Transactions Made On Uk-Issued Plastic Cards Has Grown At A Compound Average Rate Of 8.3% From 2003-07
  • Figure 3: Plastic Cards Account For A Growing Share Of Uk Retail Sales, 1998-07
  • Figure 4: Increased Frequency Of Use Has Been The Key Driver Of The Uk Card Market, 2003-07
  • Figure 5: Datamonitor Forecasts That The Value Of Transactions Made On Uk-Issued Payment Cards Will Grow At A Cagr Of 6.1% From 2008-12
  • Figure 6: Credit Card Issuers Derive Revenue From A Range Of Activities
  • Figure 7: Consumer Confidence In The Uk Has Plummeted To New Depths, 2004-2008
  • Figure 8: Uk Property Prices Have Witnessed A Sharp Correction Since The End Of 2007
  • Figure 9: After A Decade Of Decline Unemployment In The Uk Appears To Be Rising Again, 2008
  • Figure 10: The Number Of Individual Insolvencies In The Uk Has Fallen Since Mid-2007
  • Figure 11: The Value Of Credit Card Expenditure Has Remained Broadly Constant In 2007 And 2008
  • Figure 12: After Two Years Of Decline, Credit Card Lending Has Started To Grow Again, 2003-2008
  • Figure 13: The Value Of Credit Card Debt Has Remained Approximately Constant As A Proportion Of Consumer Credit, 2003-2007
  • Figure 14: Credit Card Spending Has Grown As Confidence Has Fallen Away, 2007-2008
  • Figure 15: In 2008, Consumers Have Been Reducing Their Overdrafts Quicker Than Their Card Debt
  • Figure 16: The Value Of Balances Transferred Has Fallen During 2004-2008
  • Figure 17: Retail Sales Have Been Remarkably Resilient, 2004-2008
  • Figure 18: Debit Cards Are The Most Common Type Of Credit Card In The Uk
  • Figure 19: Average Cardholding In The Uk Has Grown Over Time, Despite A Fall In Credit Card Holding Since 2005
  • Figure 20: The Number Of Platinum Cards Has Grown At The Expense Of Standard And Gold Cards, 2003-07
  • Figure 21: The Uk Private Label Market Continues To Struggle, 2003-07
  • Figure 22: More Than 75% Of All Plastic Card Transactions In The Uk Were Made By Debit Card In 2007
  • Figure 23: Debit Cards Are Used For More Transactions Per Card Than Any Other Type Of Payment Card In The Uk, 2003-07
  • Figure 24: Debit Cards Account For Over Two-Thirds Of The Value Of Plastic Card Transactions, 2003-07
  • Figure 25: The Value Of The Average Charge Card Transaction Is Close To Double That Of The Market Average, 2003-07
  • Figure 26: Charge Cards Enjoy The Highest Turnover Per Card, But Spend Per Adult Is Greatest On Debit Cards In The Uk, 2007
  • Figure 27: Purchase Transactions Account For A Growing Share Of Total Card Transaction Values In The Uk, 2003-07
  • Figure 28: Purchases Account For A Growing Share Of Debit Card Transaction Values In The Uk, 1998-2007
  • Figure 29: More Than 80% Of Credit Card Transaction Values Are Used For Purchases, 1998-2007
  • Figure 30: Purchases Account For The Majority Of Transactions Abroad, But Cash Acquisition Is Growing In Importance, 1998-2007
  • Figure 31: Debit Cards Are Increasingly Used In Transactions Abroad, 1998-2007
  • Figure 32: Uk Online Retail Spending Has Grown Dramatically, 1998-2007
  • Figure 33: Growth In The Uk Acceptance Network Has Seen The Ratio Of Population To Terminals Decline, 2003-07
  • Figure 34: Growth In The Number Of Atms In The Uk Has Been Driven By The Increase In The Number Of Independently Owned Atms, Which Has Reduced The Ration Of Population To Atms
  • Figure 35: Card Fraud Began To Rise Again In 2007
  • Figure 36: Card-Not-Present Fraud Accounts For More Than Half Of Fraudulent Transactions On Cards Issued In The Uk, 2003-2007
  • Figure 37: Card Not Present Fraud Also Accounts For More Than Half The Value Of Fraudulent Transactions
  • Figure 38: The Value Of Transactions Is Expected To Grow At A Compound Rate Of 5.9% To 2012