Low-documentation and Non-conforming Mortgage Markets in Australia 2006

Content

• Chapter 1 Introduction
  • Who is the target reader?
  • Scope
  • How to use this report
• Chapter 2 Australia's Mortgage Market
  • Despite a decline in 2004, the Australian mortgage market continued to exhibit strong growth over the 2001-2005 period
  • Housing lending commitments grew from A$127.4 billion in 2001 to A$211.7 billion in 2005
  • Housing credit aggregates grew from A$385.1 billion in 2001 to A$723.9 billion in 2005
  • Greater refinancing increased churn in the market, resulting in further business for lenders
• Chapter 3 The Low-Documentation Mortgage Market
  • The potential of the low-doc mortgage market
  • The number of self-employed individuals in Australia exceeded 1.3 million at the end of August 2006
  • The number of contract or casually employed individuals rose to 26% of all employees
  • Sizing the low-doc mortgage market
  • Reasons behind the strong growth of the low-doc market
  • Competitor dynamics
  • Forecasting the size of the low-doc market
  • Lending commitments for the low-doc market will rise to to A$58.4 billion by the end of 2011
  • Current issues in the low-doc market
• Chapter 4 Non-Conforming Mortgage Market
  • The potential size of the non-conforming mortgage market continues to grow
  • The number of credit impaired people increased
  • The number of divorcees remains high
  • Australia has a high number of new or temporary residents who fall into the non-conforming target market
  • Quantifying the non-conforming population
  • Sizing the potential non-conforming mortgage market
  • Market shares
  • Competition in the non-conforming market intensified
  • Bluestone
  • Liberty Financial
  • Pepper Australia Pty Ltd
  • GE Money
  • Challenger (Interstar)
  • Mobius
  • Market issues
  • Forecasting the size of the non-conforming mortgage market
  • Lending commitments for the non-conforming market will rise to to A$22.1 billion by the end of 2011
• Chapter 5 Apendix
  • Supplementary data
  • Definitions
  • Future readings
  • Relevant links
  • Datamonitor's custom research capabilities
  • SPP writing team
  • How to contact experts in your industry
• List Of Tables
  • Table 1: Macroeconomic factors used to forecast lending commitments in the non-conforming mortgage market, 2007-2011
  • Table 2: Macroeconomic factors used to forecast lending commitments in the non-conforming mortgage market
  • Table 3: Housing lending commitments, 2001- September 2006
  • Table 4: Housing credit aggregates, 2001- October 2006
  • Table 5: Refinancing in the mortgage market, 2001-2005
  • Table 6: Housing credit aggregates of market shares of banks, December 2004-July 2006
  • Table 7: Number of self-employed individuals, 2001-Aug 2006
  • Table 8: Australian workforce breakdown, 2001-August 2006
  • Table 9: Size of the low-doc mortgage market, 2002-2006
  • Table 10: Number of IV and XI bankruptcies, 1995/96 – 2005/06
  • Table 11: Number of debt agreements, 1996/97 – 2006/97
  • Table 12: Number of divorces, 2000-2004
  • Table 13: Temporary residents, December 2004-December 2005
  • Table 14: Individuals in the non-conforming population, 2001-2005
  • Table 15: Number of individuals with a bad credit history and also as a proportion of the non-conforming population, 2001-2005
  • Table 16: Non-conforming specialist lenders market shares, 2005-2006
  • Table 17: Market shares of the loans written by non-conforming specialist lenders only
  • Table 18: Forecasts of non-conforming lending commitments, 2007-2011
• List Of Figures
  • Figure 1: Over the 2001-2005 period, housing lending commitments grew by 13.5% compounded annually
  • Figure 2: The proportion of investment housing lending declined since house price growth rates have fallen; that is, since 2003
  • Figure 3: Housing credit aggregates increased from A$385.1 billion to A$723.9 billion in 2005. By October 2006, they stood at A$805.4 billion
  • Figure 4: Refinancing as a proportion of total lending value increased over time, from 19.9% in January 2001 to 28.7% at October 2006
  • Figure 5: Refinancing increased over the 2001-2005 period, particularly when lenders began targeting their competitors customers
  • Figure 6: Over the December 2004 – July 2006 period, CBA saw the largest drop in market share in the mortgage market while ANZ saw the greatest increase
  • Figure 7: Over the 2001-2005 period, the proportion of self-employed workers declined, however over the first eight months of 2006 this proportion increased
  • Figure 8: The overall number of self-employed individuals increased over the December 2005 – August 2006 period, despite the proportion the number of contributing workers falling considerably
  • Figure 9: Datamonitor estimates lending commitments in the low-doc mortgage market will reach A$37.9 billion in 2006
  • Figure 10: Strong growth is expected to continue in the low-doc market with lending commitments reaching A$58.4 billion in 2011
  • Figure 11: The number of IV and XI bankruptcies has gradually started increasing in recent years, with the July 2006- June 2007 year expected to be higher again
  • Figure 12: The number of bankruptcies per quarter was relatively volatile over the last 10 years
  • Figure 13: The number of debt agreements signed has increased significantly since their introduction in 1996
  • Figure 14: The quarterly data indicates a general increase in the number of debt agreements although in the last few years there was some volatility
  • Figure 15: The number of divorces increased by 10.9% over the 2000-2001 period, although it has since declined
  • Figure 16: The number of temporary residents increased by 9.1% over the twelve months to December 2005
  • Figure 17: Datamonitor estimates that the potential non-conforming mortgage population was 2.5 million at the end of 2005 with an average annual growth rate of 4.6% over the 2001-2005 period
  • Figure 18: There were almost 870,000 individuals with a bad credit history in Australia at the end of 2005, accounting for approximately 35.6% of the non-conforming population
  • Figure 19: The non-conforming mortgage market continues to grow in 2005 and 2006
  • Figure 20: In both 2005 and 2006, Liberty had the largest market share when compared to other non-conforming lenders
  • Figure 21: Changes in the market shares of the non-conforming specialists are more obvious when in perspective of the loans that these players have written rather than the whole market
  • Figure 22: Catchy phrases and a unique marketing concept are likely to make Liberty's latest venture, successful
  • Figure 23: HSBC's Home Rewards loan encourages customer loyalty as borrowers receive a discounted interest rate which drops to 0.75% from the fourth year onwards
  • Figure 24: Non-conforming lending commitments are estimated to increase to A$22.1 billion by the end of 2011
  • Figure 25: Datamonitor's core consulting capabilities