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UK Buy-to-let Mortgages 2008

  • Publication Date:December 2008
  • Publisher:Datamonitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:65

UK Buy-to-let Mortgages 2008

Introduction

The UK buy-to-let mortgage market has come to a crossroads. After a decade of strength growth the credit crunch has severely impacted on the market. This report looks at how both competitors and landlords are coping during difficult times. It concludes with a consideration of where the UK buy-to-let market can go from here.

Scope

  • *Provides three scenario-based forecasts for the market over the next 5 years.
  • *Gives competitor market share for top 8 lenders in 2007 in terms of gross advances.
  • *Looks at the impact of the credit crunch on the key competitors.

Highlights

  • Many investors were attracted by the buy-to-let market because of the indefinite high returns that it promised while the housing market seemed destined to grow indefinitely; a view that was encouraged by the loose lending policy of the banks. However, the UK property market is now on its way to a severe downturn.
  • A few reasons could account for the fact that arrears are likely to be increasing more quickly in the buy-to-let mortgage market than in the wider market. For instance, falling rents due to the oversupply of property in some areas has seen landlords experiencing difficulty in gathering sufficient rent to cover their borrowing obligations.
  • One likely outcome of the credit crunch is heavier regulation, especially as this is something that the FSA has been hinting at. Regulation in the buy-to-let market has been minimal, which is a factor in the impressive growth seen in the market over the past decade.

Reasons to Purchase

  • *Understand the impact of the credit crunch on the buy-to-let market.
  • *Understand landlords' intentions in the current difficult situation.
  • *Use Datamonitor's three 5-year scenarios to build your future strategy with confidence.
  • Overview
  • Catalyst
  • Summary
  • Executive Summary
  • The Credit Crunch Has Had A Large Adverse Effect on The UK Housing Market, Including Buy-to-Let
  • since The Beginning of 2008, House Prices Have Continued to Fall across The UK
  • Lenders' Underwriting Criteria Have Become More Strict, with Many Lenders Pulling out
  • The Number of Buy-to-Let Deals Available Has Shrunk Considerably since The Credit Crunch Began
  • The Buy-to-Let Market Will Remain An Important Niche Sector
  • from Its Inception, The Buy-to-Let Property Market Offered Stability in The Housing Market
    • Table of Contents
    • Table of figures
    • Table of tables
  • Market Context
  • The Buy-to-Let Market Saw Rapid Growth between 1996 and 2007
  • Mortgages Outstanding in The Buy-to-Let Mortgage Market Increased Greatly between 1996 and 2007
  • Buy-to-Let Growth Slowed in 2007, despite Record Lending
  • The Effects of The Credit Crunch Can Be Seen When Comparing H1 2007, H2 2007 and H1 2008
  • The Credit Crunch Has Had A Large Adverse Effect on The UK Housing Market, Including Buy-to-Let
  • The Liquidity Squeeze Is Taking Its Toll on The UK Buy-to-Let Mortgage Market
  • since The Beginning of 2008, House Prices Have Continued to Fall across The UK
  • Tenant Demand Has Soared but Unsold Properties Are Keeping Rent in Check
  • Difficult Market Conditions Have Seen Buy-to-Let Arrears and Repossessions Surpass The Overall Market
  • The Percentage of Buy-to-Let Mortgages in Arrears Has Risen by 0.15 Percentage Points over The past Year
  • Arrears Have Risen in The Buy-to-Let Market at A Quicker Rate than The Total Mortgage Market
  • The Percentage of Buy-to-Let Properties Repossessed in H1 2008 Was in Line with That of The Total Mortgage Market
  • The Percentage of Properties in Possession of The Lender at The End of H1 2008 Is Higher for Buy-to-Let than The Wider Market
  • Arrears and Repossessions Are Growing Faster in The Buy-to-Let Mortgage Market than in The Wider Market, for A Number of Reasons
  • despite The Credit Crunch, Buy-to-Let Looks Set to Remain An Important Area of Specialist Mortgage Lending
  • Buy-to-Let Will Continue to Play An Important Role in The Mortgage Market
  • as An Investment, Buy-to-Let Has Proven to Give A Better Return than Investing in The Stock Market
  • despite Some Investors Selling Their Property, Professional Landlords Are Expected to Stay Put
  • Some Landlords Intend to Sell off All or Part of Their Property Portfolio
  • Falling House Prices Would Not Persuade Most Landlords to Sell Their Property Investments
  • Landlords Are Becoming Less Likely to Add to Their Existing Property Portfolio
  • The Majority of Landlords Felt That Migrants from New Eu Countries Have Had A Positive Effect on Rental Demand
  • The Market May Become More Regulated as A Result of The Credit Crunch
  • The Buy-to-Let Market Is Currently Lightly Regulated
  • Changes to The Capital Gains Tax System Will Make Life Easier for Landlords
  • Energy Performance Certificates Are Likely to Have A Minimal Impact on Demand for Buy-to-Let Products
  • The Law Commission's Belief That There Should Be More Regulation of The Buy-to-Let Sector May Cause Difficulties in The Market
  • Sale-and-Rent-Back Is One Area of The Market Where Regulation May Be Required
  • The Oft Report Suggests Regulation as A Solution
  • The Rugg Review Could Result in Increased Regulation for Landlords
  • Competitive Landscape
  • The Buy-to-Let Mortgage Market Is Split into Two Types of Players
  • The Buy-to-Let Mortgage Market Is Split into Lenders and Intermediaries
  • Buy-to-Let Remained An Attractive Market for All The Major Mortgage Lenders in 2007
  • The Majority of Top 10 Providers Maintained Their Market Position between 2006 and 2007
  • Bristol & West Has Increased Its Market Share Due to Aggressive Selling
  • The Top Three Providers Made up 45% of The Buy-to-Let Market in 2007
  • Buy-to-Let Lenders Increased Their Advertising Expenditure in 2007
  • The Fallout from The Credit Crunch Has Had An Effect on The Number of Competitors in 2008
  • The Top 10 Lenders Changed Significantly in H1 2008
  • Four of The Top 10 Providers Have Exited The Market
  • The Northern Rock Crisis Had Little Effect on The Market
  • Players Such as Bradford & Bingley Overstretched Themselves in The Buy-to-Let Sector
  • The Merger between Lloyds Tsb and Hbos May Have Repercussions for The Buy-to-Let Market
  • Lender's Underwriting Criteria Have Become More Strict, with Many Lenders Pulling out
  • The Number of Buy-to-Let Deals Available Has Shrunk Considerably since The Credit Crunch Began
  • A Decrease in Competition Is Reflected in How The Available Offers Have Changed over The Last 18 Months
  • The Average Buy-to-Let Rate Increased from May 2007 to June 2008 before Easing off in October 2008
  • Bristol & West Is The Only Provider to Have Held Steady with Its Ltv Ratio
  • Rental Cover Has Gone up Significantly
  • The Other Criteria for Buy-to-Let Mortgages Have Shown Less Movement since The Credit Crunch Began
  • There Has Been No Real Change in The Minimum Advance Offered by The Top 10 Lenders
  • Lenders Have Made Small Tweaks to Their Fee Structure
  • Bristol & West Have Cut The Maximum Property Portfolio Allowed
  • Maximum Total Advances for Property Providers Have Remained Static
  • The Buy-to-Let Offer Remains Open to First-Time Buyers in Most Cases
  • Intermediaries Are Fighting to Maintain Their Share of The Market
  • The Share of Intermediaries Has Seen Some Falls Recently
  • Almost 20% of Mortgage Intermediaries Have Seen New Lending in The Buy-to-Let Sector Fall by 51-70%
  • Market Forecasts
  • The Buy-to-Let Market Will Remain An Important Niche Sector
  • from Its Inception, The Buy-to-Let Property Market Offered Stability in The Housing Market
  • Rental Demand in The Buy-to-Let Market Is Likely to Remain Moderately Strong over The next Few Years
  • People Losing Their Home Will Have to Move into Rental Accommodation
  • The Student Population Is Likely to Grow
  • There Is Still A Shortage of Property in The UK
  • Immigration to The UK Will Continue to Support Demand for Rental Property in The Short Term
  • The Market Remains Vulnerable to Uncertainties
  • A Large Downturn in House Prices Will Test The Strength of Borrowers
  • A Large Portfolio Is No Guarantee of Stability If The Risk Is Not Spread
  • Repossessions Are Likely to Remain Higher in The Buy-to-Let Market than in The Wider Market
  • Three Scenarios Have Been Constructed from The Previous Analysis
  • Datamonitor Sets out Three Scenarios to Outline The Future of The Buy-to-Let Market
  • under The Neutral Scenario, Gross Advances in The Buy-to-Let Mortgage Market Will Drop to 27.7 Billion in 2008
  • under The Optimistic Scenario, The Buy-to-Let Market Will Reach 37.8 Billion in Gross Advances in 2012
  • under The Pessimistic Scenario, Datamonitor Expects Gross Advances in The Buy-to-Let Market to Remain Well below 2007 Levels at 29.8 Billion in 2012
    • Appendix
  • Definitions
  • Bank of England Base Rate
  • Balances Outstanding
  • Buy-to-Let Mortgage
  • Cagr
    • Gross advances
    • Mortgage intermediary
    • Non-standard and sub-prime
    • Professional landlords
    • Remortgaging
    • Supplementary data
    • Tables from Market Context chapter
    • Tables from Competitive Landscape chapter
    • Further reading
    • Ask the analyst
    • Datamonitor consulting
    • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: The presence of the top 10 mortgage lenders of 2007 in the buy-to-let market, November 2008
    • Table 2: Ranking of top 10 buy-to-let mortgage lenders by gross advances, 2006-07
    • Table 3: Buy-to-let gross advances and competitor share for the top eight buy-to-let lenders, 2007
    • Table 4: Top 10 buy-to-let advertisers in 2007
    • Table 5: List of buy-to-let mortgage lenders in the UK, November 2008
    • Table 6: Ranking of top 10 buy-to-let providers, H1 2008
    • Table 7: Variable rate offered by the top 10 buy-to-let lenders, May 2007 to October 2008
    • Table 8: Maximum loan-to-value offered by the top 10 buy-to-let lenders, May 2007 to October 2008
    • Table 9: Minimum advance offered by the top 10 buy-to-let providers, May 2007 to October 2008
    • Table 10: The fee structure offered by the top 10 buy-to-let providers, May 2007 to October 2008
    • Table 11: Maximum property portfolio for the top 10 buy-to-let providers, May 2007 to October 2008
    • Table 12: Maximum total advance for top 10 buy-to-let property providers, May 2007 to October 2008
    • Table 13: Availability of offer to first-time buyers for top 10 buy-to-let lenders, May 2007 to October 2008
    • Table 14: Forecast of buy-to-let gross advances under the neutral scenario, 2007-12f
    • Table 15: Forecast of buy-to-let gross advances under the optimistic scenario, 2007-12f
    • Table 16: Forecast of buy-to-let gross advances under the pessimistic scenario, 2007-12f
    • Table 17: Gross advances and number of loans in the buy-to-let market on a yearly basis, 1999-07
    • Table 18: Gross advances and number of loans in the buy-to-let market on a quarterly basis, Q3 2006-Q2 2008
    • Table 19: Year-on-year percentage growth in UK house prices, January 2007-October 2008
    • Table 20: Buy-to-let mortgages in arrears as a percentage of outstanding buy-to-let mortgages on a yearly basis, 2000-07
    • Table 21: Buy-to-let mortgages in arrears as a percentage of outstanding buy-to-let mortgages on a quarterly basis, Q3 2006-Q2 2008
    • Table 22: Landlords' likelihood to sell all or some properties, March-September 2008
    • Table 23: Landlords' likelihood to sell property if house prices were to fall, March-September 2008
    • Table 24: Landlords' anticipation of buying further properties in the next 12 months, March-September 2008
    • Table 25: Effect of immigration on private rental market in 2008, September 2008
    • Table 26: Mortgaged properties taken into possession during the given period, H2 2004-H1 2008
    • Table 27: Mortgaged properties in possession at the end of the given period, H2 2004-H1 2008
    • Table 28: Number of buy-to-let (BTL) products split by product type, February 2007 - November 2008
    • Table 29: by how much have you seen new lending in the buy-to-let mortgage sector fall in 2008?
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: since April 2008, both Halifax and Nationwide have shown a decrease in year-on-year house prices
    • Figure 2: Live buy-to-let products reached a peak in September 2007 before falling away
    • Figure 3: The buy-to-let mortgage market saw an increase in both gross lending and volume of loans, although growth was slower in 2007 than in 2006
    • Figure 4: Gross advances and the number of loans have both fallen since reaching a peak in Q3 2007
    • Figure 5: since April 2008, both Halifax and Nationwide have shown a decrease in year-on-year house prices
    • Figure 6: The percentage of buy-to-let mortgages in arrears has increased significantly in 2007
    • Figure 7: The percentage of buy-to-let loans in arrears overtook the overall market in Q3 2008
    • Figure 8: The percentage of properties repossessed in H1 2008 is about 0.16% for both buy-to-let and the total mortgage market
    • Figure 9: The percentage of buy-to-let properties seized by lenders overtook the percentage for the total market in H2 2007
    • Figure 10: Almost 80% of landlords do not intend to sell any residential properties in the next 12 months
    • Figure 11: The percentage of respondents stating they would not sell their property if house prices fell, dropped to 87.4% in September 2008
    • Figure 12: The percentage of landlords considering purchasing further properties fell in September 2008
    • Figure 13: The overwhelming majority of respondents stated that immigrants had affected the rental market in 2008
    • Figure 14: The top four lenders accounted for 51.1% of buy-to-let gross advances in 2007
    • Figure 15: Live buy-to-let products reached a peak in September 2007 before falling away
    • Figure 16: since January 2008, there has been a disparity between the average buy-to-let rate and the Bank of England base rate
    • Figure 17: The vast majority of intermediaries have seen a fall in their buy-to-let lending in 2008
    • Figure 18: under the neutral scenario, buy-to-let will account for just 10.4% of new lending in the UK mortgage market in 2009
    • Figure 19: under the optimistic scenario, buy-to-let will increase its market share of the total mortgage market slightly to 12.5% in 2012
    • Figure 20: under the pessimistic scenario, buy-to-let gross advances will fall to a nadir of 21.5 billion in 2010
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