Surviving the Credit Crunch: How Vulnerable Are Emerging Markets?

Just as generals are often accused of fighting the last war, the seeds of modern economic crises are sown by well-intentioned efforts to prevent a repeat of past ones. However, while the global 'credit crunch' may have its origins in the relaxation of monetary policy following the bursting of the dot com bubble and efforts to avert a US recession post-9/11, its impact on the global economy will be felt via the same transmission mechanisms that have led to past contagion.

But, while a certain amount of scepticism is warranted against those stating that 'it's different this time', the global economy's evolution over the past decade - notably the rise of China and India and the political and economic maturation of many emerging markets - mean that the identity of those most vulnerable, and the ways in which they are exposed, has changed. This report, which draws on BMI's proprietary Sovereign, Country Risk and Industry Ratings systems explains which states and industries are most vulnerable, providing a vital guide to corporate strategists, analysts and financiers seeking to manage their vulnerabilities.

• Surviving The Credit Crunch
• The Origins of The Problem: The Sub-Prime Crisis
  • Chart: Vix Index (%)
  • Chart: Nominal Budget Balances (% of Gdp)
  • Chart: Months of Import Cover
• The Global Liquidity Crunch
• The US Recession
• The State of The World
• Sovereign Ratings
• Latin America: on A Solid Footing
  • Table: Latin Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • Table: Latin America Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
• Europe: Opportunities in Markets despite Subprime
  • Table: Europe Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • Table: Europe Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
• Sub-Saharan Africa: from Debt Hell to Debt Heaven
  • Table: Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • Table: Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
• Middle East: Ratings Robust despite Adverse Global Conditions
  • Table: Middle East & North Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • Table: Middle East & North Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
• Asia - Downside Risks and Intra-Region Divergence
  • Table: Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
  • Table: Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
• Country Risk Ratings
• Surviving The Credit Crunch
• Economic Ratings: Key Strengths
  • Table: Lat Am: Major Em States
  • Table: Emerging Europe: Major Em States
• Underlying Weaknesses
  • Table: Mea: Major Em States
  • Table: Asia: Major Em States
  • Table: Lat Am: Major Em States
  • Table: Emerging Europe: Major Em States
• The Ones to Watch
  • Table: Mea: Major Em States
  • Table: Asia: Major Em States
• Political Ratings: Strong Profile
  • Table: States of Concern
  • Table: States of Concern
• Risks Limited...for Now
• Industry Ratings Exposure to The Credit Crunch
  • Overview
  • Ratings Overview
  • Autos
    • Table: Auto Risk/Rating
  • Energy Refining & Product Distribution
    • Table: Downstream O&G Risk/Rating
  • Food & Drink
    • Table: Food and Drink Risk/Rating
  • Infrastructure
    • Table: Infrastructure Risk/Rating
  • Pharmaceuticals
    • Table: Pharmaceuticals Risk/Rating
  • Telecoms
    • Table: Telecoms Risk/Rating
  • Insurance
    • Table: Insurance Risk/Rating
  • Conclusion
• Appendix
  • Sovereign Risk Ratings Methodology
  • Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • County Risk Ratings
  • Long Term Political Ratings
  • Short Term Political Ratings
  • Long Term Economic Rating
  • Short-Term Economic Rating
  • Business Environment Rating
  • Bmi Ratings League Table