European Real Estate:

Content

• Section
  • Market Overview
  • Chapter
    • Where Is Real Estate On The Path To Full Asset Class Status?
    • Industry Overview
    • The Effect Of Reits
    • Market Performance
    • Asset Class Requirements
    • Liquidity
    • The Experience Of Reit Structures
    • Other Developments
    • Volatility Against Stability
    • Tighter Returns
    • Transparency
    • Maturity
    • Flexibility
    • Debt Sophistication
    • Origination Issues
    • A Broad Base Of Understanding
    • A Broader Base Of Investors
  • Chapter
    • Macro Drivers And Anticipated Economic Performance Across Europe
    • Introduction
    • The Global Economic Context
    • Low Government Bond Yields
    • The European Position
    • Europe In Detail
    • Old Europe
    • Dynamic Periphery Group
    • New Europe
    • Economics And Real Estate Investment
    • Strong Returns On Real Estate
    • Direct And Indirect Investment Options
    • Real Estate Investment Trends Within Europe
    • Growth Factors
    • Supply-Side Dynamics
    • Outlook
    • Prospects In Europe
    • Economic Trends
    • Geographic Trends
    • Sector Trends
  • Chapter
    • European Real Estate In A Global Context
    • Introduction
    • Market Size And Composition
    • Market Differences
    • Trends And Variations
    • Ownership Structures
    • European Legislation
    • Data Provision
    • Differences In Data Measurement
    • The Prospects For Standardisation
    • Moves In The European Market
    • Summary And Conclusions
  • Chapter
    • Priced For Perfection Equity Inflows Into Real Estate In Europe
    • Introduction
    • Global Capital Flows
    • Focus On Investors
    • Europe: A Market In Transition?
    • The Drivers Of Capital Flows
    • Aging Demographic Profiles
    • Declining Costs Of Debt
    • Strengthening Fundamentals
    • Increasing Market Transparency
    • Future Prospects
    • Regional Markets
    • Economic Factors
    • The Risk Of Recession
    • Conclusion
• Section
  • Innovations In Investment Products And Emerging Structured Property Solutions
  • Chapter
    • European Cmbs Issuance
    • 2007 Outlook: Another Record Issuance Year
    • Expectations For Investor Demand, Issuance Supply And Spreads
    • Structural Innovations
    • Outlook On Fundamental Drivers
    • The Cmbs Market In 2006
    • Issuance Growth And Breakdowns
    • Collateral Trends
    • Granularity
    • Multi-Jurisdictional Issuance
    • Performance Delinquencies And Losses
    • Spread Trends
  • Chapter
    • European Rmbs Issuance
    • The Continuing Growth Of Rmbs
    • The Uk Market
    • The Rest Of Europe
    • The Subprime Market
    • Non-Conforming Sector Prospects
    • Rmbs In 2007
    • Positive Forecasts
    • Downside Indicators
    • Concerns For Non-Conforming And Buy-To-Let Sectors
    • European Interest Rate Impact
    • Rmbs Performance Rating
    • National Variations
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter
    • Property Derivatives
    • Overview
    • Property Derivatives An Introduction
    • How A Derivative Differs From A Physical Transaction
    • The Current Uk Derivatives Market
    • Market Indicators
    • The Ipd Index
    • Derivatives Markets Outside The Uk
    • Strategies And Applications
    • Hedging
    • Portfolio Rebalancing
    • Diversification
    • Property Fund Exit Strategies
    • Adjusting Risk/Gearing
    • International Strategies
    • Asset Allocation And Retaining Alpha
    • Corporate Applications Monetising Real Estate Holdings
    • Property Index Certificates (Pics) And Property Linked Notes (Plns)
    • Pricing
    • Reits And Property Derivatives
    • Applications For Real Estate Security Fund Managers
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter
    • German Distressed Property: Recovery In Sight
    • Overview
    • The German Npl
    • Root Causes Of German Distressed Property
    • Trends In German Distressed Property
    • Berlin The Epicentre Of Distress
    • Indications Of Price Stability
    • First Mover Advantage On German Npls To Buyer Or Seller?
    • German Housing Looking For The Upside
    • Real Estate Open And Closed-End Funds
    • Small Npl Deals Produce Super Returns
    • Distressed Loans And Assets For Sale
    • Insolvency And Foreclosure
    • The G-Reit Initiative
    • Real Estate A Source Of Liquidity In Corporate Buyouts, Restructuring And Insolvency
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter
    • Capital Flows And Ipos The Convergence Story In Emerging Europe
    • Background
    • Present Concerns
    • The Situation In Emerging Europe
    • Prospects For Yields
    • An Evolving Sector In A Dynamic Environment
• Section
  • Pan-European Reits
  • Chapter
    • Reit Revolution A Global Overview
    • Reits Defined
    • Global Reit Structures
    • The Growth Of Global Reit Markets
    • New Reit Market Development
    • Japan
    • Singapore
    • Hong Kong
    • Singapore, Hong Kong And China
    • Europe
    • Uk Reits
    • Germany
    • The Case For Global Real Estate
    • The Global Trend In Allocations
    • Conclusion
  • Chapter
    • The French Reit Landscape The French reit-Volution
    • Introduction
    • Market Background
    • The Reit Sector After The Siic Reforms
    • Market Developments
    • Extensions To Siic
    • Siic 2 Activity
    • Siic 3 Activity
    • Future Prospects
    • Attractions For Non-French Players
    • Desperately Seeking Liquidity
    • Performance Measures For French Reits
    • Rental Yield
    • Yield Compression
    • Attractive Growth And Pipelines
    • Reits Market Valuation
    • Investor Activity
    • German And Uk Reits: Threat Or Opportunity?
    • Specialisation: A Major Future Challenge
    • Key Conclusion
  • Chapter
    • Prospects For Uk Reits
    • Introduction
    • The Legislation In Context
    • The Form Of The Uk Reit
    • Company Conditions For Reit Status
    • Tax-Exempt Business Conditions
    • Balance Of Business Conditions
    • Entry Charge
    • The 10% Rule
    • Gearing Restriction (Interest Cover Test)
    • Development
    • Ring-Fenced Business
    • Taxation Of Reits
    • Group Reits
    • Key Challenges To The Reit Regime
    • Tax-Neutral Vehicle
    • Reit Objectives And Liquidity
    • Encouraging Investor Appetite
    • Aim Listed Companies
    • Start-Up Reits
    • Tax
    • Residential Reits
    • Doing Business With Uk Reits
    • Acquisitions And Disposals
    • Reit Status Considerations
    • The Future
    • Specialisation/Diversification
    • Other Developments
  • Chapter
    • Strong Prospects For The German Reit Market
    • Introduction
    • History Of The German Reit (G-Reit) Process
    • Improving The Financial Environment
    • Current Legislative Outline
    • Next Steps
    • The Potential For The G-Reit Market
    • Economic Benefits
    • Is The G-Reit Already Behind The Curve?
    • Conclusion
• List Of Tables
  • Table 3.1: Estimated Prime Office Performance 200407f (%, Local Currency)
  • Table 5.1: Relative Country Sector Rankings
  • Table 5.2: Top 10 European Cmbs Conduit Programs By Issuance, 2006 (bn)
  • Table 7.1: Physical Property Transaction
  • Table 7.2: Ipd Country Indices
  • Table 7.3: Tracking Error
  • Table 7.4: Costs Of Levels Of Diversification (m, %)
  • Table 7.5: Adjusting Asset Allocation (bn, %)
  • Table 7.6: Potential Saving Through Derivative Use
  • Table 10.1: Global Reit Structures
  • Table 10.2: Estimated Sourcing Of G-Reit Assets To 2010, (bn)
  • Table 10.3: Population Over 65 Years Old, By Country, 2000, 2010, 2020
  • Table 11.1: Overview Of The Reit Sector, 2003, 2006 ( Bn)
  • Table 11.2: Main French Property Companies, 1 Jan 2003 (m, %)
  • Table 11.3: Foreign Property Companies With Euronext Paris Dual Listing, Dec 2006
  • Table 11.4: Top Five Reits, France, The Netherlands, Uk, Dec 2006 ()
  • Table 11.5: 2010 Investment Pipeline Of Major French Reits (m, %)
  • Table 11.6: Valuations Of Main French Reits, 2006, 2007e (m, %)
  • Table 11.7: Ev/Ebitda Multiples, By Sector, 2006
  • Table 11.8: Volatility Of Sbf 120 Companies, By Sector, Dec 2006 (%)
  • Table 11.9: Main Investors In French Siic Companies, December 2006 (m, %)
  • Table 11.10: Performance Of Epra Indices From 2005 And 2006 (%)
  • Table 11.11: Investor Attitudes To European Reit Markets, 2006 (%)
  • Table 13.1: Development Of The Global Reit Market, 19602007
  • Table 13.2: Reits And Existing Property Vehicles In Germany
  • Table 13.3: Market Potential Of G-Reits (bn)
• List Of Figures
  • Figure 1.1 French Siics Market Capitalisation Vs Free Float, 200306 (bn)
  • Figure 1.2: Global Real Estate Vs Equities And Bonds, 200306
  • Figure 1.3: Real Estate Vs Other Asset Classes, Total Returns, 2005 (%)
  • Figure 1.4: Annualised Asset Turnover, By Sector, 200306 (%)
  • Figure 1.5: Performance Of French Siic, Non-Siic And Uk Real Estate Sectors, 200306
  • Figure 1.6: Yields Paris Cbd Vs French Gilts (%)
  • Figure 1.7: International Benchmarks, 200306
  • Figure 1.8: German Open-Ended Funds Gross Assets, 19952006 (m)
  • Figure 1.9: Uk Pension Fund Allocation To Property, 19642004 (%)
  • Figure 1.10: European Direct Real Estate Investment, 200005 (bn)
  • Figure 2.1: Total Investment Purchases, 200006 (bn)
  • Figure 2.2: Global Price Inflation Rates, 1980-2007f (%)
  • Figure 2.3: Real Interest Rates, 1980-2006 (%)
  • Figure 2.4: Global Gdp Growth, 1999-2007f (%)
  • Figure 2.5: Gross National Saving, 1995 And 2005
  • Figure 2.6: Global Money Supply To Gdp Ratio, 19802005
  • Figure 2.7: Growth In Gdp And Gdp Per Capita, 1999-2005 (%)
  • Figure 2.8: Average Annual Gdp Growth, 1999-2005 (%), And Gdp Per Capita, 2005 ()
  • Figure 2.9: Total Returns On Uk Assets, Dec 1986oct 2006
  • Figure 2.10: Average Annual Total Returns On Uk And European Assets, To End-2005 (%)
  • Figure 2.11: Direct And Indirect Real Estate Investment Holdings In Europe, 19992005 (bn)
  • Figure 2.12: Average Annual Gdp Growth And Growth In Invested Stock, 1999-2005 (%)
  • Figure 2.13: Value Of Cross-Border Transactions, 1999-2006 (m)
  • Figure 2.14: Prime Office Yields, 1999, 2005 (%)
  • Figure 2.15: Average Annual Gdp Growth, 2006-2010f (%)
  • Figure 2.16: Externalisation Potential, 200610 (bn, %)
  • Figure 3.1: Global Real Estate Stock By Region And Category, 2006 (Us$Bn)
  • Figure 3.2: Invested, Investible And Total Real Estate Stock By Country, 2006 (Us$Bn)
  • Figure 3.3: Office, Retail And Industrial Property Split By Country, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 3.4: Market Maturity By Region, 2006 (Us$Trn)
  • Figure 3.5: European Office Total Return Volatility And City-Level Output Volatility, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 3.6: new European Offices As A Proportion Of Total Stock By Market, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 3.7: Rental Growth Correlations By Sector And Region, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 3.8: European Real Estate Investment By Country And Capital Type, Q4 2005q2 2006 (%)
  • Figure 3.9: Regional Investment Volumes, Q4 2005-Q2 2006 (%, Us$Bn)
  • Figure 3.10: Listed Real Estate Securities Markets By Region, 2006 (m)
  • Figure 3.11: Reit Markets By Region, 2006 (m)
  • Figure 3.12: Unlisted Real Estate Investment Funds By Region, 2006 (m)
  • Figure 3.13: Investible European Real Estate Stock By Ownership Group, 2006 (, %)
  • Figure 3.14: Investible Asia Pacific Real Estate Stock By Ownership Group, 2006 (, %)
  • Figure 3.15: Ipd Global Total Returns, 200105 (%, Us$)
  • Figure 5.1: Bec-Prop Index And Sub-Indices, 19992010, 200510
  • Figure 5.2: European Cmbs Issuance, 19952006 (bn)
  • Figure 5.3: European Cmbs Issuance, By Issuer Type, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 5.4: European Cmbs Issuance, By Transaction Type, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 5.5: European Cmbs Issuance, By Collateral Country, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 5.6: European Cmbs Issuance, By Property Type, 2006
  • Figure 5.7: European Cmbs Loan And Property Granularity, 19982006
  • Figure 5.8: European Cmbs Issuance Multi-Jurisdictional Issuers, 19992006 (%)
  • Figure 5.9: European Cmbs Delinquencies Estimated Loss Rates As Percentage Of Outstandings, Q1 2004q1 2006 (%)
  • Figure 5.10: Uk Commercial Mortgages Estimated Loss Rates As Percentage Of Outstandings, 200006 (%)
  • Figure 5.11: Uk Commercial Mortgage Lending, By Category, 200006 (%)
  • Figure 5.12: Commercial Mortgage Loan Covenant Breaches And Defaults, 2000h1 2006 (m)
  • Figure 5.13: European Cmbs Primary Spreads, 200206
  • Figure 5.14: European Cmbs Average Spreads, 200206
  • Figure 5.15: European Cmbs Primary Spreads, 2006
  • Figure 7.1: Total Annual Returns By Category (%)
  • Figure 7.2: Annual Property Yields, By Sector, 19872007 (%)
  • Figure 7.3: Simple Total Return Swap
  • Figure 7.4: Uk Derivative Trading, Q1/2005q1/2007 (m)
  • Figure 7.5: Composition Of The Uk Ipd Index, End-Dec 2006 (%)
  • Figure 7.6: Composition Of Ipd Indices For The Netherlands And France, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 7.7: Using A Derivative To Protect Against A Perceived Market Downturn (%)
  • Figure 7.8: Using Derivatives For Portfolio Balancing
  • Figure 7.9: Predicted Value Of Fund Terminations, 200616 (bn)
  • Figure 7.10: Property Returns Vs Interest Returns, Effect Of Derivatives, 19952004 (%)
  • Figure 7.11: All Property Curve, 200716
  • Figure 7.12: Risk/Return Profile, Us Direct Property Vs Us Reits, 19782007 (%)
  • Figure 9.1: Prime Office Yields In Madrid, 19812005 (%)
  • Figure 9.2: Yields Convergence In Central Europe
  • Figure 9.3: Capital Inflows And Ipos In The Eme Real Estate Sector, 19982006e (bn)
  • Figure 9.4: Prime Office Yields, 2005 (%)
  • Figure 9.5: Speed Of Convergence In Ce-3, 200309e (%)
  • Figure 9.6: Emerging Europe Credit To Gdp Ratios (%)
  • Figure 9.7: Emerging Europe Mortgages To Gdp Ratios (%)
  • Figure 9.8: Emerging Europe Private Consumption Growth, 200307e (%)
  • Figure 9.9: Activities Breakdown By Mcap (Us$, %)
  • Figure 9.10: Activities Breakdown By Mcap After Rebalancing (Us$, %)
  • Figure 10.1: Growth Of Global Reit Markets, 19902006 (Us$Bn)
  • Figure 10.2: Singapore Reit Market Capitalisation, 200206 (S$M)
  • Figure 10.3: Institutional Pension Allocations To Real Estate, 19882006 (%, Us$M)
  • Figure 10.4: Listed Real Estate Allocations, By Market Source, 2006
  • Figure 10.5: Efficient Frontier With And Without Real Estate (%)
  • Figure 10.6: Global Risk And Return, 19902006 (%)
  • Figure 10.7: Interregional Correlation Within Each Asset Class, 19952005
  • Figure 10.8: Rolling Two-Year Global Correlation, Global Real Estate Versus Equities & Bonds, 19962006
  • Figure 11.1: Main Elements Of Siic 1 Reform, 2003
  • Figure 11.2: French Real Estate Ecm Volumes, 200306 (m)
  • Figure 11.3: French Real Estate M&A Volumes, 200306 (bn)
  • Figure 11.4: Listed Real Estate Vs Total Real Estate Assets, By Country, Sept 2006 (%)
  • Figure 11.5: French Siic Market, Dec 2006 (m, %)
  • Figure 11.6: Income Returns On Property, By Category, 200005 (%)
  • Figure 11.7: Growth In Unleveraged Capital Return On Property, By Category, 200005 (%)
  • Figure 11.8: Growth In Gross Rental Yield On Property, By Category, 200005 (%)
  • Figure 11.9: Cash Flow Growth Estimates 2003, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 11.10: Epra Indices Performance, Jan 2003july 2006
  • Figure 11.11 Average Discount/Premium To Nav, 2003, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 11.12: Investor Rating Of European Reit Valuation Methodologies (%)
  • Figure 11.13: Premium To Nav Vs Yield Regression, 2006e (%)
  • Figure 11.14: Premium To Nav Vs Cash Flow Cagr, 200608e (%)
  • Figure 11.15: Volatility Of Select French Reits, Jan 2003july 2006 (%)
  • Figure 11.16: Investment In French Siic Companies, By Country, 2006 (%)
  • Figure 13.1: European Market Share Of National Real Estate Stock Companies, 31 Oct 2006 (%)