January is a time when many smokers strengthen their resolve to kick their habit, with 1.2 million estimated to have embarked on this journey this New Year’s Day in the UK alone. However, as smokers who have attempted and failed to quit will agree, will power by itself is often insufficient and smoking cessation aids are often needed. Estimated to be worth just $213 million in 2006, a new report finds that the prescription nicotine dependence market is set to grow strongly at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% to reach $4.6 billion by 2016, driven by the launch of two promising pipeline nicotine vaccines and the continued uptake of Pfizer’s popular nicotine receptor agonist Chantix (varenicline).

Although the dangers of tobacco use have been recognised for over half a century, and a rising number of countries have banned of smoking in enclosed spaces. Nicotine dependence continues to represent a serious public health problem. Datamonitor estimates that nicotine dependence affects almost 116 million individuals across the seven major markets (7MM); France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, UK and US in 2007.

At present, the nicotine dependence market consists of a wide range of over-the-counter products, such as nicotine replacement gums and patches, with sales exceeding $2 billion across the 7MM in 2006. By comparison, the prescription nicotine dependence market is considerably under-developed, with just two marketed products: GlaxoSmithKline’s Zyban (bupropion) and Chantix. There are currently no prescription nicotine dependence drugs available in Japan.
Datamonitor believes that the most promising candidates in the current pipeline for the potential treatment of nicotine dependence are the nicotine vaccines, which are designed to prevent nicotine from entering the brain, thereby reducing the pleasurable effects of smoking.

Nicotine vaccines are the largest drug class in late-stage development for the treatment of nicotine dependence, representing a move away from nicotine replacement and nicotine agonist therapies which have historically dominated the market. Datamonitor predicts the launch of two nicotine vaccines in 2010 and 2012 respectively: Nabi Biopharmaceuticals’ NicVAX and Novartis’s NIC-002.

Despite yielding promising clinical trial results, neither of the nicotine vaccines is likely to be able to reduce an individual’s craving for nicotine. Therefore, in theory, use of a nicotine vaccine in conjunction with an anti-craving drug has the potential to bolster long-term quit rates.

Further Reading: Pipeline Insight: Substance Dependence – Part I: Nicotine