In the years to 2010, the Internet enters its fourth decade and is reaching two important limits which are inherent in the current architecture. Firstly, the exhaustion of previously unused IPv4 address space, and secondly a set of inter-related scaling problems in the BGP (Border Gateway Protocol) routing system which drive up the cost of the core routers used by every ISP and large end-user network – such as those of corporations and universities.

These problems contribute to the cost of Internet access for all users – at home and in business. The Internet’s Routing Scaling Problem threatens the stability of the global routing system. Together with the closely related IPv4 address exhaustion problem, the two form the Internet’s unfolding Routing and Addressing Crisis.

This crisis leads to increasingly high barriers to the entry of new ISPs and prevents millions of end-user networks from obtaining the Provider Independent address space they need to multihome their networks and avoid “provider lock-in” – by being able to choose a new ISP without having to change the IP addresses of all the computers and other devices on their networks.

The routing scaling problem and the closely related IPv4 address depletion problem directly affect every ISP’s costs, the capacity of the Internet to accommodate new networks, and the ability of end-user computers to have their own unique address. These problems are rarely discussed outside the IETF and IRTF (Internet Engineering and Research Task Forces). Until these problems are resolved, competition policy, reliability and cost problems will escalate, especially with the accelerating adoption of Internet communications in developing countries.

It is widely recognised that fresh IPv4 address space will become difficult or impossible to obtain around 2010, and that it is impractical for most users to adopt IPv6 – the second version of the TCP/IP protocols and addressing system with its essentially boundless 128 bit address space.

Related Research: 2008 Technology – Internet – Volume 3 – IP Techniques