The slow-down in the central nervous system (CNS) drug market growth between 2003 and 2005 is likely to continue over the next three years concludes new market research. CNS Market Trends 2007 to 2010 - Key market forecasts and growth opportunities is forecast to expand to US$63.9 billion in 2010, equivalent to annual growth of just 2.9% .

The global market for CNS patients is forecast increase from 142 million cases in the major pharmaceutical markets in 2005 to 147 million in 2010.

The report’s author, Steve Seget of Delphi Pharma, tips that the highest growth in CNS cases in the major pharmaceutical markets will be for treatments for Parkinson’s which will increase by 2.1% between now and 2010. The only other CNS area expected to grow at a rate above the average CAGR of 0.6% is Alzheimer’s disease. Both these markets are being driven by the rapid aging of populations across Europe, the US and Japan.

Overall, CNS growth rates will be constrained by mature markets in depression and epilepsy and continued patent expiries for major products. Growth will come primarily from antipsychotics drug class which is forecast to overtake the anti-depressants class to become the largest CNS drug class in 2010. The CNS market share for anti-depressants will fall from 32.5% in 2005 to 25.0% in 2010 as a result of continued patent expiries in a mature market.

Only two of the top 10 CNS products in 2005 are forecast to increase sales over the next five years. However, the biggest decline is forecast for Pfizer’s Zoloft and Wyeth’s Effexor with CAGRs of -31.3% and -19.1% respectively.

The two top 10 CNS products in 2005 forecast to increase in sales over the next three years are AstraZeneca’s Seroquel for the treatment of schizophrenia and Eisai and Pfizer’s Alzheimer’s medicine Aricept , with CAGRs of 6.6% and 2.4% respectively. In total, the top ten selling CNS drugs in 2005 are forecast to decline by US$8.7 billion over the next five years at a CAGR of -7.0%.