Many commentators have argued that today’s global ‘credit crunch’ has its origins in the relaxation of monetary policy following the bursting of the dot com bubble and efforts to avert a US recession post-9/11. Its impact on the global economy will be felt via the same transmission mechanisms that have led to past contagion. However, comparisons with the past may not be that relevant as the significant pace of economic globalisation has redefined the balance of power.

The report Surviving the Credit Crunch: How Vulnerable Are Emerging Markets argues that the global economy’s evolution over the past decade – notably the rise of China and India and the political and economic maturation of many emerging markets – mean that the identity of those most vulnerable, and the ways in which they are exposed, has changed.

Latin America, for example, is well placed because the key to economic and sovereign debt performance in the region still lies largely with commodities, prices of which have been climbing steeply in response to demand from China and India’s industrialisation drive. The Middle East and North Africa’s high growth and low inflation on the other hand may be under pressure, but the region is particularly well insulated thanks to still abundant liquidity resulting from the oil price rally.

So, perhaps it is the service orientated Western economies, in particular the US, that will feel the crunch more acutely than emerging markets.