Wine is fine, but beer isn’t quite so cool anymore, especially among older people. And that’s just what the sales figures for alcohol consumption will show in four years time, says a new report, Consumers’ Alcoholic Drinks Preferences: New Trends and Future Perspectives.

The new report predicts that beer sales in Europe are likely to nose-dive, the sale of spirits remain as they are and only wine sales are expected to climb. A similar trend is also visible in U.S. markets as well, suggesting that the market for alcohol consumption is largely listless, the sole exception being the climbing sales of wine.

Beer drinking will decrease to 93 litres per person and 114 litres in the U.S. by 2011. The sale of spirits will remain largely unchanged at 5 litres per person in Europe and 7 litres in the US. It’s only the sale of wine that’s forecast to increase, to 37 litres per person in 2011.

Wine sales have been one of the few triumphs for the sluggish alcohol industry with Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2001-2006 in Europe being 2.9%, and the U. S being 1.4%.

Increase in wine drinking has been influenced by several factors including health concerns, value for money supermarket wines and a rising ageing population, says the report.

While moderation in intake is on the rise, analysts have said that the availability of ‘megabrand’ products like Jacob’s Creek and Nottage Hill have pushed wine sales up as they are seen as great value for money products. They note however that the downside of this trend has been that people have become less enthusiastic about investing in expensive and specialist wines, effectively curtailing the price growth potential of wine.

The shift in demographic populations in Western societies towards increasing older people also plays its part in influencing the alcohol consumption market. The report says age plays a vital role in selecting a drink. For instance, wine and spirits are seen as more mature drinks and are preferred by older people. On the other hand, beer is seen as a young to middle aged person’s drink. So as the population ages, the traditional consumer base of beer drinkers is shrinking, says the study. Typically, in the UK per capita beer consumption is highest among young adults and declines with age.

Beer has the largest market share of alcoholic drink in terms of volume, but has increasingly been dominated by wine in many European countries. Sales could also be suffering due to perceptions says the study. Beer is seen as a man’s drink with male consumers outnumbering their female counterparts by a three to one ratio, suggesting that manufacturers should target women customers in order to boost sales.
The CAGR for beer consumption from 2001-2006 was -0.2% in Europe and 0 in the U.S.

Analysts say that the smoking ban which came into effect on 1st July 2007 in the UK won’t be helping pint sales either. They say smokers will be deterred by the thought of smoking outside pubs in the winter, and are more likely to limit their trips to the local.