Argentina Defence and Security Report 2008

Argentina's defence and security position has undoubtedly improved over the last decade. At the end of 2007 the country was undergoing a new democratic transition, as Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner, who had won the October presidential elections with a comfortable majority, formally took office in December. Despite criticism of the Kirchner family's tight hold on political power, various underlying factors were undoubtedly favourable when compared to the country's recent past.

First and foremost, Argentina has enjoyed a period of strong economic growth since 2003, a vitally important counterpoint to the social and economic collapse of 2001-02. This growth, and the consequent improvement in living standards, helped reduce social tensions and ease the crime wave that had become a serious threat to internal security. Inequalities of income and wealth together with crime in the major cities remain an important issue, but these problems are less overpowering and perhaps more manageable now than they were before. A key challenge facing the new president will therefore be to maintain domestic economic growth at a time of potentially choppy waters in the international economy.

Secondly, despite some ongoing regional rivalries, Argentina remains fundamentally at peace with its immediate neighbours, a situation which has not always been the case. There is some concern over growing arms purchases by Chile, but relations are much improved (the two countries almost went to war in the late 1970s). Argentina continues to seek a counterweight to Brazilian regional influence, largely through friendship with Venezuela, but ultimately co-operation rather than competition has predominated along the Buenos Aires-Brasilia access. An ongoing dispute with Uruguay over celulose plants on the border between the two is an irritant which the President-elect may try and ease. Outside the region, we expect Argentina to continue opposing the British presence in the Falklands/Malvinas islands with some diplomatic vigour, but a return to military action such as during the 1982 occupation, which had disastrous conequences, is not on the cards. Finally, in the critical relationship with the US, pragmatism is likely to dominate: Cristina Fernndez clearly hopes she will be dealing with Hillary Clinton in 2009.

Third, a country which has suffered serious threats from both domestic and international terrorism, and where there has often been a damaging backlash leading to authoritarianism and human rights violations, is currently enjoying a relatively trouble-free period. The last known domestic terrorist activities ocurred in 2005 with small-scale attacks on retail outlets run by US multinationals (Citibank, McDonalds, Blockbuster video). The last major attack attributed to international terrorism, the bombing of a Jewish community centre which killed 85 people, took place in 1994. The authorities continue to believe Lebanon-based Hizbollah, backed by Iran, was involved, although this has been denied. Concern over potential activity by Al Qaeda-linked groups in the Triple Border area (Argentina's shared border with Brazil and Paraguay) appears to have peaked in 2006 and since subsided. Clearly terrorist groups may be regrouping 'under the radar' and the danger from this quarter can never be discounted: but for the immediate future the threat level looks to be low.