Uganda Business Forecast Report Q4 2008

Publication Date	August 2008
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	54
ISBN Number	1744-8859
Product Code	BMI02412

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Summary

Controversy As Museveni Plans To Stand In 2011

Two years after persuading parliament to abolish presidential term limits that cleared the way for him to win the 2006 presidential election, Vice President Gilbert Bukenya has confirmed that President Yoweri Museveni intends to stand for re-election in 2011. Domestic political tensions have intensified with the brief detention of three prominent Bugandan officials.

Despite the deterioration in the external environment, Uganda should still see real GDP growth in the region of 7.0% in 2008. Ongoing inflationary pressures will remain the key risk given the importance of private consumption, but these should ease by 2009. Exposed to external movements in energy and food prices, and with limited effectiveness of monetary policy, the country will remain at risk from global price spikes. Nevertheless, we expect global commodity prices to ease during H208, and have pencilled in end-08 inflation of 11.5% y-o-y.

Israeli company Invespro has signed a power purchase agreement with the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company (UETCL) to develop a 100MW heavy-fuel thermal plant. The plant will help alleviate Uganda's power crisis and will make use of the country's recently discovered oil reserves. The plant, located in Mukono district, is to be run on a Build, Own and Operate (BOT) basis, and Invespro has already invited oil firms to submit offers to supply the fuel. The country requires approximately 380MW but has a generating capacity of only 255MW due to chronic underinvestment.

Content

Executive Summary
- Controversy as Museveni Plans to Stand in 2011
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- Bmi Political Risk Ratings
- Domestic Politics
- Museveni Reportedly to Stand in 2011
- Two Years after Persuading Parliament to Abolish Presidential Term Limits That Cleared The Way for Him to Win
- The 2006 Presidential Election, Vice President Gilbert Bukenya Has Confirmed That President Yoweri Museveni
- Intends to Stand for Re-Election in 2011.
- Table: Uganda Political Overview
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- Bmi Economic Risk Ratings
- Economic Activity
- Export Growth to Help Drive Economy
- despite The Deterioration in The External Environment, Uganda Should Still See Real Gdp Growth in The Region of
- 7.0% in 2008.
- Table: Economic Activity
- Balance of Payments
- Current Account Deficit Pressures to Ease in 2009
- as Robust Economic Growth and High Energy Prices Put Upward Pressure on The Import Bill, We Expect Ugandas
- Current Account Deficit to Widen over The Course of 2008.
- Table: Balance of Payments
- Monetary Policy
- Inflation to Peak in H2
- Exposed to External Movements in Energy and Food Prices, and with Limited Effectiveness of Monetary Policy,
- Uganda Will Remain at Risk Form Global Price Spikes.
- Table: Monetary Policy
- External Debt
- Commodity Volatility A Key Risk to Creditworthiness
- since Having Been The Beneficiary of Multilateral Debt Relief in 2005-06, Ugandas Debt Profile Has Improved
- Considerably.
- Table: Foreign Debt
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
- The Ugandan Economy to 2017
- Growth to Weather Exogenous Risks
- We Are Forecasting Robust Real Gdp Growth of 6-7% over Our 10-Year Forecast Period as Agricultural Exports Continue
- to Grow and The Country Starts Producing Oil and Electricity Which Together Have The Potential to Stimulate
- Non-Agricultural Sectors and Reduce The Energy Import Bill.
- Table: Uganda Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Special Report
- Mega-Urban Regions
- Table: The Worlds 30 Largest Urban Agglomerations
- Table: The Worlds Richest Cities in 2020 by Gdp
- Table: The Worlds Fastest Growing Urban Areas by Population
Chapter 5: Business Environment
- SWOT Analysis
- Bmi Business Environment Risk Ratings
- Business Environment Outlook
- Institutions
- Table: Bmi Business and Operational Risk Ratings
- Table: Bmi Legal Framework Ratings
- Infrastructure
- Market Orientation
- Table: Middle East &Africa Fdi
- Table: Bmi Trade Ratings
- Table: Top Export Destinations
- Operational Risk
Chapter 6: Bmi Global Assumptions
- Global Outlook
- Table: Global Assumptions
- United States
- Eurozone
- Japan
- China
- Commodities