PV TEM 2009

For several years, the Photovoltaic (PV) industry was primarily seen as an outstanding financial investment, delivering a high-performance return-on-investment (ROI) with limited risk. The objectives were simply to adapt the production capacities to answer a high market demand. In this context, Polysilicon and wafer producers, cell and module manufacturers were assured to sell their entire production.

But 2009 has been quite particular as the financial crisis has not spared the PV industry. The credit crunch, lower-than-expected market growth, and a large product offer have in fact forced companies to be more innovative than ever. In this highly competitive market, only the companies able to provide better products at a lower price will succeed. As a consequence the whole PV chain, from polysilicon producers to module manufacturers, is working on new technical solutions to reach grid parity and finally make PV a competitive renewable energy source. Government incentives as well as new power grid structure (e.g. smart grid) will contribute, in the coming years, in making PV a viable alternative to conventional energy sources such as coal or nuclear. As cost reduction has become one of the top priorities for equipment and material suppliers, we are today seeing them partnering with cell manufacturers to pull production cost down.

Worldwide investments in R&D as well as in cell production capacity have reached an unprecedented level. Cell manufacturers will start benefiting from economies of scale in the coming years, but innovation in the field of material and equipment will remain a key parameter to sustain the growth. Manufacturers will develop more and more new technologies based on well-established techniques from various industries such as semiconductor, display, printing, glass, etc.

Even with a slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2008, the market, boosted by demand for thin-film equipment, was incredibly high that year. Yole is estimating that total revenue exceeded 2.7 Billion euro. Until the end of 2009 and during 2010, because of strong overcapacities, total revenue is forecast to decrease by 45% compared to 2008 to 1.5 Billion euro. Market demand is forecast to come back after 2010 and will progressively impact the production sites by increasing the fab utilization rates. Investments in fab extensions and related equipment are expected to follow in 2011 although they will arrive with a slight time lag behind the demand increase.

Since Our Last Report, The Industry Landscape Has Been Drastically Modified:

A large number of companies invested in polysilicon manufacturing capacity:

• Incumbents such as Hemlock, Wacker and REC are in the process of doubling or even tripling their production capacity while keeping a low manufacturing cost.
• Motivated by a silicon shortage and high prepayments, a lot of new players have purchased Siemens-type equipment and entered the market in 2009: DC Chemical, LDK, GCL Poly Energy, etc.

We also observed new developments in:

• Low-cost technologies such as Fluidized Bed Reactor with players like AE polysilicon, MEMC, or Peaksun
• Upgraded metallurgical grade promoted by Becancour, 6N Silicon, Dow Corning, etc.

The thin-film industry has also seen major announcements from Nanosolar or Solyndra, setting performance at the next level up while decreasing the cost per watt. Thanks to revolutionary cell designs and new production concepts, the firms are now positioning themselves as challengers to First Solar.

First Solar, considered by many as a true game-changer, definitely demonstrated its strong leadership and managed to build a Giga-Watt factory in just a few years.

We also followed the various trends and alliances created by the entrance of Applied Materials, Oerlikon Solar, Ulvac and the other OEM's.

After a large run after thin-film equipment, a lower demand and a decrease of the silicon price, we are now seeing an impact on sales in this domain.

Processes Described

The author has studied and analyzed the manufacturing processes of nine of the most common PV technologies:

• Wafer based
• Thin wafer based
• a-Si
• Tandem: a-Si/?u-Si
• III-V
• CIS/CIGS
• CdTe
• Dye sensitized solar cells
• Organic solar cells

Through this report you will get clear analyses regarding technology maturity: Some reached mass production through standard or proprietary manufacturing process while others are still developing innovative but low-cost manufacturing techniques. Yole also points out specific challenges and issues for each process, brings key answers and evaluates the potential market for equipment and material suppliers. Suppliers providing lasers, screen printers, wet benches, furnaces, CVD and PVD systems as well as the material suppliers associated to them should be aware of the photovoltaic market opportunities detailed in this report. The report will particularly emphasize crucial processing steps in which market players are heavily investing.

As an example the following can be found in the report.

• Texturization: Kyocera Solar and its patented dark blue cells, 1366 Technologies that unveils its honeycomb structure for better light trapping, or IMEC and its plasma texturing technology (part of the i-PERC process), etc.
• Metallization: The Asys triple-lane printer, Optomec and its aerosol jet printing process, Schmid that developed its Light induced plating (LIP) process, or Xjet that introduced the first full ink-jet based deposition system, etc.
• Anti-reflective coating: Roth & Rau launched their MAiA multi-tasks solution, Singulus is running tests for its new modular machine, Oerlikon Solar came out with its coating machine while Sixtron is providing a silane-free solution to be implemented on existing coater, etc.

The report offers a full description of photovoltaic's market, technologies, manufacturing processes, equipment and materials and it also includes key figures, analyses and useful tools for strategic decisions.

This report describes:

• size of current global installed capacity
• Manufacturing processes by technology
• Equipment and materials needed in production
• Market for equipment

A third of the report is focusing exclusively on market opportunities for main manufacturing equipment:

• PECVD and PVD for layer deposition
• PVD
• Lasers scribers
• Screen printers
• Wet bench for saw damage and PSG removal
• Diffusion and firing furnace

A large part of the report is dedicated to equipment market description:

• Players
• Technical challenges
• ASP and main technical parameters
• Innovative concepts

We also screened turnkey equipment solutions both in thin film and c-Si:

• Players,
• Technology,
• Partners
• Investment needed

Purchasing this report will provide an instant access to structure benchmark information and industry mapping.

Who should by:

• Both established PV established players and new entrants will find value in ""PV Technology and Equipment and Materials"".
• Marketing executives of equipment and materials companies will find key figures for their strategic plans and offer design.
• Sales and business development managers will have market potential (# of machine/year) and operational tools (Equipment/techno; Techno/market segments).
• Technical directors will find global overview of all processes with a benchmark on main equipment. They will find all relevant information to evaluate the customization of their equipment or materials and even find new opportunities

Companies mentioned in this report:

1366 Technologies; 3S Swiss Solar Systems; Air Liquide; Aixtron; Akrion; Altatech; AMI Presco; Analog JSC; Antec Solar; Anwell; Applied Materials; ASYS/EKRA; ATV Technologie; Aurel Automation; Baccini; Bekaert; Boostsolar; BSI B?(C)cancour Silicon; BTU; B? 1/4 rkle; Centrotherm; CSG Solar; DC Chemicals; DEK; Denal; Despatch; Deutsche Cell; Dow Corning; Dupont; Dyesol; Edwards; Elkem; Energosolar; ErSol; Evatech; Evergreen; Eurotron ;Ferro; First Solar; Flisom; Fraunhofer ISE; GCL Silicon; GT Solar; HALM; Hemlock; Heraeus; Honda; IHI; IMEC; Innolas; Innovalight; Isofoton; Jun Sung; Jusung; Kaneka; Komax Systems; Konarka; Koyo; Kyocera; LDK Solar; Leybold Optics; Machine Dubuit; Manz Automation; Meier; MEMC; Metalor; Mitsubishi Electric; Motech; Nanosolar; NPC; NREL; Oerlikon Solar; Optomec; OTB Engineering; P.Energy; Pasan; Pemco Euroinks; PV Measurements; PVA tepla; Q-Cells; REC; RENA; Rena; Rofin; Roth and Rau; Saint-Gobain; Sanyo; Schmid; Schmid; Schott Solar; SCR Engineering; Seishin; Semco; Sharp; Sierratherm; Singulus Stangl; Sixtron; Solar Force; SolarWorld; Solyndra; Sontor/B234; Sovello; Spire; Sulfurcell; Suntech; SVCS; Tecnofimes; Tempress; Thieme; Trumpf; Ulvac; United Solar Ovonics; Veeco; VHF-Technologies; Von Ardenne; Wacker-Chemie; Wacom; W? 1/4 rth Solar; Xjet; XsunX....