Worldwide Thin-film Photovoltaics - Current Status and R&D

Publication Date	February 2009
Publisher	Fuji-Keizai
Product Type	Report
Pages	152
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	FUJ00068

Buy this product or for assistance call +44 20 7060 7474

PDF £1,520.00$2528 | €1701

PRINT £990.00$1647 | €1108

FAX Order above formats by FAX

Summary

Conventional bulk silicon based PV cells have been used since the 1960s and have undergone substantial developments, however they are the most costly to manufacture especially in light of the current worldwide silicon shortage. These cells types accounted for more than 83 percent of the market share in 2007. Thin-film PV cells have been evolving since the early 1970s, and organics PV cells since the 1990s and accounted for about 17 percent of the total PV market in 2007, making it one of the fast growing technologies in the whole of the alternative energy sector. These cells are made by directly depositing photoactive material onto a thin substrate, and are therefore much thinner and require less material than conventional PV cells and offer increasing efficiencies. There are several important thin-film PV cell types: amorphous silicon (a-Si); cadmium telluride (CdTe); and copper indium diselenide/copper indium gallium diselenide (CIS / CIGS), and also organic systems. In 2007, NREL demonstrated CIGS PV cells with 19.9 percent efficiency, which is still very far from that reported by University of Delaware researchers for crystalline silicon (42.8 percent), but nonetheless demonstrates the tremendous potential for thin-film PV and its great applicability in many applications.

Key drivers enabling the development and use of organic and thin-film PV cells include government programs, silicon costs and availability.

The current main thin-film PV technologies accounted for about 17 percent of the total PV market in 2007, and this is expected to increase to more than 32 percent (about 4 GW) by 2013. A number of activities being carried out by organizations in the PV sector are helping the development of this emerging market.

The prospects for organic-based PV devices are continuing to improve as development gets closer to commercialization, and an efficiency of 8-10 percent is likely in the foreseeable future. The success of organic and thin-film PVs will depend on their ability to be cost-competitive when compared with existing electrical sources such as rigid PVs and batteries, and with emerging technologies such as fuel cells.

Thin-film PV cells based on crystalline and amorphous silicon, CdTe, and CIGS are in various phases of manufacture, and it is expected that they will achieve the cost reductions needed to compete directly with the other forms of energy. These reductions will become more significant when thin-film technologies are produced directly on building materials such as tiles and bricks.

PV applications can be roughly divided into three categories, those involving: power generation installations, conventional electronics and disposable electronics.

For the large-scale applications of PV in both building installed PV, rural electrification and irrigation pumps projects PV manufacturing costs must be reduced by at least a factor of two. As production costs decline, demand for PV electricity will outstrip system supply.

Leading PV developers along the supply chain have indicated that in both the US and global PV markets that for the last quarter of 2008 and through at least the first half of 2009, there will be softer conditions, which will prevent the rapid growth expected before the credit crunch, and this may even flow over into 2010. This is not due to any lack of technological innovations discussed in this report, but rather stems from a concern over reduced funding and spending levels on solar projects and the effect of the falling oil price - which in turn will make customers think twice about spending their savings on solar energy. That say and done, during in 2009, revenues may pick up due to strong demand for PV. Also, consolidation of the industry during 2009 within the industry will help offset these concerns, and even lead to some reduction in PV module prices. Table E-4 (not display it here) summarizes the latest outlook for the worldwide thin-film PV market by thin-film segment over the next 5 years. The report includes trends broken down by volume and material types.

Content

Executive Summary
- Table E-1 Comparison of Organic and Thin-Film PV Cell Technologies
- Table E-2: Activities in the PV Market during 2008
- Table E-3: Best Fit Technology by Application
- Table E-4: Summary of the Thin-Film PV Market by Segment ($ millions)
Chapter 1: Introduction and Methodology
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 Scope
- 1.3 Methodology
Chapter 2: PV Technology and Developer Overview
- Table 2-1: Developer's Technology Positioning
- Table 2-1: Developer's Technology Positioning
- 2.1 Cell principles and operation
  - 2.1.1 Heterojunction cells
  - 2.1.2 Ordered heterojunctions
  - 2.1.3 Multijunctions
- Table 2-2: Technical Challenges Facing Organic PV Cell Development
- 2.2 Evolution of thin-film PV
- Figure 2-1: Main PV Cell Efficiencies (1993-2008)
- Table 2-3: Comparison of Main PV Cell Technologies (2008)
- Table 2-4: Technology Developments for PV Efficiencies
  - 2.2.1 Evolution of organic and DSC PV cells
- Table 2-5: Organic PV Cell Development
- Table 2.6: Advantages of Organic PV Cells
- Table 2-7: DSC Cell Development
  - 2.2.2 Evolution of silicon thin-film PV cells
- Table 2-8: Thin-Film Silicon PV Cell Development
Chapter 3: Thin-Film PV Materials and Properties: Developer's Positioning
- Table 3-1: Developer's Positioning
- Table 3-1: Developer's Positioning
- 3.1 The growing interest in thin-film PVs
- Figure 3-1: Thin-Film PV Cell Efficiencies (1993-2008)
- Table 3-2: Developer's Current Status
- Table 3-2: Developer's Current Status
- 3.2 Thin-film silicon
  - 3.2.1 Amorphous silicon
- Table 3-3: Amorphous Silicon Thin-film PV Cell Data
- Table 3-4: Amorphous Silicon - Developments
  - 3.2.2 Nanocrystalline silicon
  - 3.2.3 Protocrystalline silicon
  - 3.2.4 Monocrystalline silicon
- 3.3 Cadmium telluride thin-films (CdTe)
- Table 3-5: Physical Properties of CdTe Thin-Film PV
- Table 3-6: Thin-Film CdTe PV Technology Developments
- 3.4 Chalcopyrite thin-film compounds (CIS, CIGS)
- Table 3-7: CIGS PV Technology Advantages
- Table 3-8: CIGS Cell Efficiency Developments by Substrate
- 3.5 Dye-sensitized thin-film cells
  - 3.5.1 Cells
- Table 3-9: Advantages of Dye-Sensitized Cells
- Figure 3-2: Structure and Operating Principle of a Dye-Sensitized PV Cell
- Table 3-10: DSC PV Technology Developments
- Table 3-11: DSC - Today's Cost Breakdown
  - 3.5.2 Dye sensitizer materials
- Table 3-12: Comparison of DSC Sensitizers
  - 3.5.3 Electrolytes
- 3.6 Organic PV (OPV) cells
  - 3.6.1 Cells
  - 3.6.2 OPV Materials
    - 3.6.2.1 Conducting polymers
Chapter 4: Manufacturing Overview
- Figure 4.1 Process Sequence for Manufacturing Thin-Film Modules
- Table 4-1: Developer/Supplier's Positioning
- 4.1 Main processes for producing thin-film PV cells
- Table 4-1: Developer/Supplier's Positioning
  - 4.1.1 Gravure printing
- Figure 4-2: Gravure printing process
  - 4.1.2 Inkjet printing
- Figure 4-3: Ink-jet deposition mechanisms
  - 4.1.3 Screen printing
- Figure 4-4: Screen printing process
  - 4.1.4 Other printing methods
- Table 4-2: Comparison of Common Printing Processes
- 4.2 Film/device quality and substrate compatibility
- 4.3 Economics
- Figure 4-5: Efficiency and Cost Projections for First (I), Second (II), and Third Generation(III) PV Technologies
- 4.4 Vacuum deposition
  - 4.4.1 CIGS manufacture
- Table 4-3: Thin-Film CIGS PV Technology
- Table 4-3: Thin-Film CIGS PV Technology
  - 4.4.2 CdTe PV cell manufacture
- Table 4-4: CdTe Thin-film PV Cell Properties
- 4.5 Roll-to-roll
- Table 4-5: Manufacturing Processes used for CIGS PV cells
  - 4.5.1 Konarka
  - 4.5.2 G24 Innovations
  - 4.5.3 Nanosolar
- Table 4-6: Thin-Film PV Cell Developments
  - 4.5.4 Other developments
- 4.6 Thin-film on glass
- 4.7 Thin-film on flex
Chapter 5: Commercial Applications
- Table 5-1: Best Fit PV Technology by Application
- 5.1 Building-integrated power generation
- Table 5-2: Selected Commercial BIPV Systems - by PV Technology
- 5.2 Consumer electronics
- 5.3 Military
- 5.4 Packaging
- 5.5 Solar chargers
- 5.6 Smart fabrics
- 5.7 Space applications
Chapter 6: Worldwide Market outlook
- 6.1 Recent activities
- Table 6-1: Activities in the PV Market during 2008
- 6.2 Silicon costs
- Table 6-2: Principal Polysilicon Suppliers (2006)
- 6.3 Current Status and Future Outlook for Thin-film PV Cells - Global Trends for 2007-2013
- Table & Figure 6-3: PV Market Outlook by Production Capacity 2007-2013
- Table & Figure 6-4: Thin-Film PV Production by Capacity (MWp)
- Table 6-4: Thin-Film PV Production by Capacity (MWp)
- Table & Figure 6-5: Thin-Film PV Production Capacity by Percentage
- Table & Figure 6-6: Thin-Film PV Revenues by US$M
- Table & Figure 6-7: Thin-Film PV Revenue by Percentage
- Table & Figure 6-8: Thin-Film PV Revenue by Application ($ millions)
- Table & Figure 6-9: Thin-Film PV Revenue by Application as a Percentage
Chapter 7: Ongoing R&D and Development Trends by Product Segment
- Table 7-1: Thin-Film PV Future Trends
- Table 7-1: Thin-Film PV Future Trends
- 7.1 Technologies under development
  - 7.1.1 Spheral crystalline silicon
  - 7.1.2 Organic PV cells
  - 7.1.3 Dye sensitized cells
  - 7.1.4 Third-generation PV cells
- 7.2 Potential improvements in conversion efficiencies
  - 7.2.1 Blends of electron and hole transporting polymers
  - 7.2.2 High-band-gap semiconducting oxides
  - 7.2.3 Luminescent concentrators
  - 7.2.4 Ionic solid electrolyte
  - 7.2.5 Micro-morph
  - 7.2.6 Stability of organic materials
- 7.3 Materials capable of absorbing a wider range of light wavelengths
- 7.4 New materials
  - 7.4.1 Hybrid organic/inorganic semiconductors
- Table 7-2: Cu2S/CdS Nanocrystal and Thin-film Comparison
  - 7.4.2 Nanowires
- 7.5 Challenges for further development
Chapter 8: Key Findings in this Report
Chapter 8: Key Findings in this Report
- 8.1 Introduction
- Figure 8-1: Main PV Cell Efficiencies (1993-2008)
- Table 8-1: Comparison of Thin-Film and Organic PV Cell Technologies (2008)
- 8.2 Evolution and development for thin-film PV cells
  - 8.2.1 Thin-film silicon
- Table 8-2: Thin-Film Silicon PV Developments
- Table 8-3: Amorphous Silicon PV - Developments
  - 8.2.2 Cadmium telluride (CdTe)
- Table 8-4: Thin-Film PV CdTe Developments
  - 8.2.3 CIGS and CIS thin-films
- Table 8-5: Thin-Film CIGS PV Cell Developments
  - 8.2.4 DSCs
- Table 8-6: DSC PV Developments
  - 8.2.5 OPV
- Table 8-7: Organic PV Developments
- Table 8-8: Transparent Conducting Material Developments
- Table 8-9: Carbon Nanotubes for Thin-Film PV Cells
- 8.3 Manufacturing
  - 8.3.1 Processes for producing thin-film PV cells
- Table 8-10: Comparison of Conventional Printing Processes
  - 8.3.2 CIGS manufacture
- Table 8-11: CIGS Thin-Film PV Technology
  - 8.3.3 CdTe PV cell manufacture
- Table 8-12: CdTe Thin Film PV Cell Properties
  - 8.3.4 Roll-to-roll processing:
- Table 8-13: Manufacturing Processes used for PV cells
- 8.4 Commercial Applications
- Table 8-14: Best Fit Technology by Application
  - 8.4.1 BIPV
  - 8.4.2 Consumer electronics
  - 8.4.3 Military
  - 8.4.4 Packaging
  - 8.4.5 Solar chargers
  - 8.4.6 Smart fabrics
  - 8.4.7 Space applications
- 8.5 Market outlook
Chapter 9: Leading Photovoltaic Material and Cell Suppliers
- Table 9-1: Material Suppliers - by Material Type
- Table 9-1: Material Suppliers - by Material Type
- Table 9-2: Amorphous Silicon Thin-Film PV Cell Suppliers
- Table 9-2: Amorphous Silicon Thin-Film PV Cell Suppliers
- Table 9-3: CdTe Thin-Film PV Cell Suppliers
- Table 9-3: CdTe Thin-Film PV Cell Suppliers
- Table 9-4: CIGS Thin- Film PV Cell Suppliers
- Table 9-5: Dye Sensitized PV Cell Suppliers
- Table 9-5: Dye Sensitized PV Cell Suppliers
- Table 9-6: OPV Material and Cell Developers
- 9.1 Commercial Suppliers
  - Common Research Item
  - Company HQ Location
  - URL
  - Production Facility Location
  - Founded
  - Employees
  - Revenue or Financial Status (depending if public or private company)
  - Production Capacity (monthly or yearly)
  - Applications Focus
  - Technology/Product Developed or R&D
  - Commercialization
  - Strategic Alliance
  - 9.1.1 9.1.48 (Total 48 Companies)
- 9.2 Research Organizations
  - Common Research Item
  - Location
  - URL
  - Description of Technology Innovation
  - Research Target & Trends
  - Application Targeted
  - Strategic Alliance
  - 9.2.1 9.2.25 (Total 25 Research Organizations)
Appendix 1 Methodology for reporting efficiencies