Worldwide Hard Disk Drive 2009-2012 Forecast: Navigating the Transitions for Enterprise Applications

Publication Date	February 2009
Publisher	IDC
Product Type	Report
Pages	39
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	IDC07022

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Summary

This IDC study presents an updated look at the hard disk drive market for enterprise applications through 2012. IDC expects that unit shipments of HDDs for enterprise storage applications will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% from 2008 to 2012. But when measured in terabytes (TBs), HDD storage shipments for enterprise applications will grow at a 38% CAGR over this same period. A confluence of factors will shape total disk drive unit demand and the composition of HDD configurations used in enterprise applications over the next five years.

"Navigating the economic collapse of 2008/2009 is enough of a challenge for the HDD industry without having to also deal with interface and form factor transitions in the enterprise storage market. Further, HDD OEMs will need to contend with a competitive newcomer to the enterprise storage market: flash-based SSDs. While enterprise storage trends are a lighter shade of dark than many other storage segments, the extreme focus on storage efficiency will likely place additional stress on HDD OEMs as they look for solid footing and an economic recovery in the future." - John Rydning, research director, Hard Disk Drives

Content

IDC Opinion
In This Study
- Methodology
  - Changes to Methodology Leading to Revisions of the HDD Forecast for Enterprise Applications
  - Scope of Enterprise HDD Applications for This Study
    - Internal Storage
    - External Storage
    - Low-End Servers
    - Self-Build Systems/Internet Infrastructure
    - Workstations
    - Content Depots or "Cloud" Storage
- Key Terminology and Definitions
  - Enterprise Datacenter
  - Performance-Optimized Hard Disk Drives
  - Capacity-Optimized Hard Disk Drives
  - Storage Tiers
Situation Overview
Figure: Worldwide Enterprise Applications HDD Shipments as a Percentage of Total HDD Shipments, 2008
Figure: Worldwide Enterprise Applications HDD Revenue as a Percentage of Total HDD Revenue, 2008
Figure: Worldwide Performance-Optimized HDD OEM Revenue Share by Vendor, 2008
- Racing to Keep Up with Capacity Growth
- Figure: Worldwide Storage System Shipments and Performance-Optimized HDD Capacity Growth Rates, 2003-2008
- Figure: Worldwide HDD Shipments for Enterprise Applications, 2003-2008
- Figure: Worldwide HDD Terabyte Shipments for Enterprise Applications, 2003-2008
- Evolving HDD Configurations for Enterprise Storage
  - Capacity-Optimized HDDs
  - Performance-Optimized Enterprise Small Form Factor 2.5in. HDDs
  - A Plethora of HDD Form Factors for Enterprise Storage
  - Table: Performance-Optimized 3.5in. Hard Disk Drive Products for Enterprise Applications, 2007-2012
  - Table: Performance-Optimized 2.5in. Hard Disk Drive Products for Enterprise Applications, 2007-2012
  - Table: Capacity-Optimized 3.5in. Hard Disk Drive Products for Enterprise Applications, 2007-2012
  - Table: Capacity-Optimized 2.5in. Hard Disk Drive Products for Enterprise Applications, 2007-2012
- SATA- or SAS-afaction for Capacity-Optimized HDD Interfaces
Future Outlook
- Forecast and Assumptions
  - The Transition to SAS 2.0 Begins
  - Figure: Worldwide Performance-Optimized HDD for Enterprise Applications Shipment Share by SAS Interface, 2008-2012
  - Figure: Worldwide HDD for Enterprise Applications Shipment Share by SAS Interface, 2008-2012
  - Many Paths to Green Storage
    - Green Hardware
    - Improved Disk Utilization
    - Different Disk Efficiency Solutions, Different Impacts
    - Storage Efficiency Improvements: An Illustrative Example
    - Table: Baseline Scenario: A Fictitious Organization's Terabyte Growth with No Storage Efficiency Implemented
    - Table: Scenario 2: A Fictitious Organization's Terabyte Growth with Storage Efficiency Implemented
  - Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Forecast for Enterprise Applications
  - Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments and Revenue for Enterprise Applications by Form Factor, 2007-2012
  - Figure: Worldwide Performance-Optimized HDD for Enterprise Applications Average Price per Gigabyte by Form Factor, 2007-2012
  - Migration to Enterprise 2.5in. SFF HDDs Is a Certainty
  - Table: Worldwide HDD Internal Storage Systems Shipments for Enterprise Applications by Form Factor, 2007-2012 (000)
  - Table: Worldwide HDD External Storage Systems Shipments for Enterprise Applications by Form Factor, 2007-2012 (000)
  - Inside External Storage Arrays Fibre Channel Will Give Way to SAS
  - Deducing HDD Interface Transitions for Enterprise Applications
  - Figure: Worldwide Capacity-Optimized HDD Shipments for Enterprise Applications by Interface, 2008-2012
  - Figure: Worldwide HDD Shipments for Enterprise Applications by Interface, 2008-2012
  - Enterprise 2.5in. 15,000rpm HDDs: Where SSDs Will Make an Impact
  - Table: Worldwide Performance-Optimized HDD Shipments for Enterprise Applications by Form Factor and Spinspeed, 2007-2012 (000)
  - Table: Worldwide Capacity-Optimized HDD Shipments for Enterprise Applications by Form Factor and Spin Speed, 2007-2012 (000)
  - Assumptions
  - Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Market, 2009-2012
- Market Context
- Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments and Revenue for Enterprise Applications, 2007-2012: Comparison of May 2008, November 2008, and February 2009 Forecasts
- Figure: Worldwide HDD Shipments and Revenue for Enterprise Applications, 2007-2012: Comparison of May 2008, November 2008, and February 2009 Forecasts
Essential Guidance
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- Related Research
- Synopsis