Photovoltaic Technology Equipment and Market Report

A PV industry landscape, drastically modified within one year

Publication Date	October 2009
Publisher	Yole Développement
Product Type	Report
Pages
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	YOL00115

Buy this product or for assistance call +44 20 7060 7474

PDF £2,965.00$4932 | €3319

FAX Order above formats by FAX

Summary

Equipment market

For several years, the Photovoltaic (PV) industry was primarily seen as an outstanding financial investment, delivering a high-performance return-on-investment (ROI) with limited risk. The objectives were simply to adapt the production capacities to answer a high market demand. In this context, Polysilicon and wafer producers, cell and module manufacturers were assured to sell their entire production.

But 2009 has been quite particular as the financial crisis has not spared the PV industry. The credit crunch, lower-than-expected market growth, and a large product offer have in fact forced companies to be more innovative than ever. In this highly competitive market, only the companies able to provide better products at a lower price will succeed.

As a consequence the whole PV chain, from polysilicon producers to module manufacturers, is working on new technical solutions to reach grid parity and finally make PV a competitive renewable energy source. Government incentives as well as new power grid structure (e.g. smart grid) will contribute, in the coming years, in making PV a viable alternative to conventional energy sources such as coal or nuclear. As cost reduction has become one of the top priorities for equipment and material suppliers, we are today seeing them partnering with cell manufacturers to pull production cost down.
Worldwide investments in R&D as well as in cell production capacity have reached an unprecedented level. Cell manufacturers will start benefiting from economies of scale in the coming years, but innovation in the field of material and equipment will remain a key parameter to sustain the growth. Manufacturers will develop more and more new technologies based on well-established techniques from various industries such as semiconductor, display, printing, glass, etc.
Even with a slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2008, the market, boosted by demand for thin-film equipment, was incredibly high that year. Yole is estimating that total revenue exceeded 2.7 Billion euro.

Until the end of 2009 and during 2010, because of strong overcapacities, total revenue is forecast to decrease by 45% compared to 2008 to 1.5 Billion euro.

Market demand is forecast to come back after 2010 and will progressively impact the production sites by increasing the fab utilization rates. Investments in fab extensions and related equipment are expected to follow in 2011 although they will arrive with a slight time lag behind the demand increase.

Because Yole D?(C)veloppement is able to understand the complex mechanisms between market demand, production capacity and real production, this report will provide you with a clear, detailed, and consistent overview of the PV industry. It not only describes the industry in terms of market shares, but it also gives you the keys to grow your opportunities.
Since our last report, the industry landscape has been drastically modified:

A large number of companies invested in polysilicon manufacturing capacity:

Incumbents such as Hemlock, Wacker and REC are in the process of doubling or even tripling their production capacity while keeping a low manufacturing cost.
Motivated by a silicon shortage and high prepayments, a lot of new players have purchased Siemens-type equipment and entered the market in 2009: DC Chemical, LDK, GCL Poly Energy, etc.
We also observed new developments in:
Low-cost technologies such as Fluidized Bed Reactor with players like AE polysilicon, MEMC, or Peaksun
Upgraded metallurgical grade promoted by Becancour, 6N Silicon, Dow Corning, etc.

The thin-film industry has also seen major announcements from Nanosolar or Solyndra, setting performance at the next level up while decreasing the cost per watt. Thanks to revolutionary cell designs and new production concepts, the firms are now positioning themselves as challengers to First Solar. First Solar, considered by many as a true game-changer, definitely demonstrated its strong leadership and managed to build a Giga-Watt factory in just a few years.
We also followed the various trends and alliances created by the entrance of Applied Materials, Oerlikon Solar, Ulvac and the other OEM's. After a large run after thin-film equipment, a lower demand and a decrease of the silicon price, we are now seeing an impact on sales in this domain.

What our clients can expect?

A complete Kit - Our aim is to deliver the equipment and material manufacturers a complete kit to evaluate their own photovoltaic market opportunity and define their offer.
This fully updated report provides a complete understanding of the PV industry: Starting from raw materials, through equipment and ending at cells and modules, our goal is to offer an extended overview of the equipment innovations, technical improvements as well as new alliances and an in-depth analysis of the Market and Technology trends from 2009 to 2013.
Using our technology approach, our market description provides a technical dimension usually unmet in market reports. Technical innovation remains a key factor in the PV industry growth. Our role is to understand it and describe it in a concise manner so that industry players are staying informed on technical innovations and industry drivers.

The report provides a clear understanding of the market and also brings a risk evaluation by describing:

Market context
Production capacities and shipments along the value chain (Poly-Silicon, ingots, cells and modules)
Description of PV technologies and their manufacturing processes
Innovations and improvements of manufacturing equipment

Equipment and material manufacturers will find all the fundamentals needed to either enter the PV industry or expand their existing market

Processes described

Yole D?(C)veloppement has studied and analysed the manufacturing processes of nine of the most common PV technologies:

Wafer based
Thin wafer based
a-Si
Tandem: a-Si/?u-Si
III-V
CIS/CIGS
CdTe
Dye sensitized solar cells
Organic solar cells

Through this report you will get clear analyses regarding technology maturity:

Some reached mass production through standard or proprietary manufacturing process while others are still developing innovative but low-cost manufacturing techniques.

Yole also points out specific challenges and issues for each process, brings key answers and evaluates the potential market for equipment and material suppliers.

Suppliers providing lasers, screen printers, wet benches, furnaces, CVD and PVD systems as well as the material suppliers associated to them should be aware of the photovoltaic market opportunities detailed in this report.The report will particularly emphasize crucial processing steps in which market players are heavily investing. As an example the following can be found in the report.

Texturization: Kyocera Solar and its patented dark blue cells, 1366 Technologies that unveils its honeycomb structure for better light trapping, or IMEC and its plasma texturing technology (part of the i-PERC process), etc.
Metallization: The Asys triple-lane printer, Optomec and its aerosol jet printing process, Schmid that developed its Light induced plating (LIP) process, or Xjet that introduced the first full ink-jet based deposition system, etc.
Anti-reflective coating: Roth & Rau launched their MAiA multi-tasks solution, Singulus is running tests for its new modular machine, Oerlikon Solar came out with its coating machine while Sixtron is providing a silane-free solution to be implemented on existing coater, etc.
The report offers a full description of photovoltaic's market, technologies, manufacturing processes, equipment and materials and it also includes key figures, analyses and useful tools for strategic decisions.

Report Content

Size of current global installed capacity
Manufacturing processes by technology
Equipment and materials needed in production
Market for equipment

A third of the report is focusing exclusively on market opportunities for main manufacturing equipment:

PECVD and PVD for layer deposition
PVD
Lasers scribers
Screen printers
Wet bench for saw damage and PSG removal
Diffusion and firing furnace
MOCVD

A large part of the report is dedicated to equipment market description:

Players
Technical challenges
ASP and main technical parameters
Innovative concepts

We also screened turnkey equipment solutions both in thin film and c-Si:

Players,
Technology,
Partners
Investment needed

Purchasing this report will provide an instant access to structure benchmark information and industry mapping.

Content

Executive summary
Market description and forecast
- Technology segmentation
- Comparison between technologies
- Production forecast with technology breakdown 2005-2015
- Technology market share 2005-2015
- Market demand (extracted from Yole PV Incentive report)including breakdown by major countries
- Focus on main players
  - End 2008 top ten
  - Sharp
  - Q-Cells
  - Solarworld
  - Suntech
  - Solyndra
  - First Solar
  - Innovalight
  - NanoSolar
  - UniSolr
- Value chain analysis
  - Wafer based
  - Thin films
Production capacity and equipment park
- (polysilicon, cells, modules including thin films)
- Capacity breakdown by technology
- Capacity breakdown by country with number of fabs
Technologies and processes
- (Si Wafer based, thin Si wafer based, Si, Si/µSi, CIS/CIGS, CdTe, III-V, DSSC, Organic)
  - Description of cell structure
  - Production flowchart
  - Description of production steps
  - Players
  - Equipment
  - Materials
  - Industrial park estimation
- PV manufacturing equipment:
- Wet bench (SDR and PSG removal), Diffusion furnace, PECVD (SiNx), PVD (SiNx), Screen printer, Firing furnace, cell testing and sorting, PECVD for active layer deposition, Laser scriber, PVD for TCO, MOCVD)
  - Global park estimation 2008
  - Estimated annual demand in equipment 2008-2013
  - Main characteristics
  - Technology innovations
  - Material needed
  - Equipment manufacturers
  - Competitive technologies
- New equipment
- RIE, Electroplating, Plasma PSG removal, Inkjet, Nanimprint
  - Equipment manufacturers
  - Main customers
  - Issues
  - Competitive technologies
La liste des societes interviewees
- 1366 Technologies; 3S Swiss Solar Systems; Air Liquide; Aixtron; Akrion; Altatech; AMI Presco; Analog JSC; Antec Solar; Anwell; Applied Materials; ASYS/EKRA; ATV Technologie; Aurel Automation; Baccini; Bekaert; Boostsolar; BSI Becancour Silicon; BTU; Bürkle; Centrotherm; CSG Solar; DC Chemicals; DEK; Denal; Despatch; Deutsche Cell; Dow Corning; Dupont; Dyesol; Edwards; Elkem; Energosolar; ErSol; Evatech; Evergreen; Eurotron ;Ferro; First Solar; Flisom; Fraunhofer ISE; GCL Silicon; GT Solar; HALM; Hemlock; Heraeus; Honda; IHI; IMEC; Innolas; Innovalight; Isofoton; Jun Sung; Jusung; Kaneka; Komax Systems; Konarka; Koyo; Kyocera; LDK Solar; Leybold Optics; Machine Dubuit; Manz Automation; Meier; MEMC; Metalor; Mitsubishi Electric; Motech; Nanosolar; NPC; NREL; Oerlikon Solar; Optomec; OTB Engineering; P.Energy; Pasan; Pemco Euroinks; PV Measurements; PVA tepla; Q-Cells; REC; RENA; Rena; Rofin; Roth and Rau; SainGobain; Sanyo; Schmid; Schmid; Schott Solar; SCR Engineering; Seishin; Semco; Sharp; Sierratherm; Singulus Stangl; Sixtron; Solar Force; SolarWorld; Solyndra; Sontor/B234; Sovello; Spire; Sulfurcell; Suntech; SVCS; Tecnofimes; Tempress; Thieme; Trumpf; Ulvac; United Solar Ovonics; Veeco; VHF-Technologies; Von Ardenne; WackeChemie; Wacom; Würth Solar; Xjet; XsunX....
Glossary
Executive summary
- Our vision of SiC market in the next 10 years. Conditions of success
- SiC-based device revenues and related 2008 company market shares
- 10-years projection of SiC power device market size split by applications
- Relative market shares of SiC power applications to 2019
- Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2008-2019 in units and $, split by diameter
- Comparison with 2008 report: what we saw, what we missed, what has moved
2009 noteworthy news
2008 noteworthy news
The new entrants since 2005
Recent known funding for SiC development
Main manufacturing steps of the SiC device processing
From Silicon to SiC: Total Accessible Market analysis
- Positioning of the SiC devices in the Silicon world
- Silicon vs. SiC device characteristics
- Reality of silicon & expectations of SiC
- Possible applications for SiC devices in Silicon power electronics
- Market segmentation of SiC applications as a function of voltage range
- SiC device market shares in %, split by voltage range to 2019
- SiC device applications roadmap
- Time to market
- Main applications accessible to SiC
- Specs / market data of today silicon device market
- Estimated accessible markets, growth rate, and time to market for SiC-based power electronics
- % of SiC device market over the total Silicon discrete power device market to 2019
- 2008 To power electronics company revenues
- (based on overall revenues in the Silicon power electronics)
- Conclusion
SiC industry outlook
- Main SiC fabs in Europe
- Main SiC fabs in the US
- Main SiC fabs in Japan
- Main SiC fabs in Asia (Apart of Japan)
- Positioning of the main companies over the SiC valuchain
- Some recent strategies and choices for nexgen power devices technology
- Research Programs. France: G2REC
- Research Programs. Europe: MANSiC
- Research Programs. Japan:
LoVoltage Applications
Power Factor Corrector Market
- PFC market main metrics
- SiC or GaN main addevalue in PFC circuits
- PFC efficiency comparison as a function of junction T and Schottky diode type (Si, SiC and GaN)
- TOP 15 OEM power supply manufacturers and related involvement in SiC & GaN
- SiC or GaN device main market requirements for PFC applications
- Comparison of Si, SiC or GaN diode cost in a PFC module
- 2008 SBD cost breakdown model projection From SiC 4 wafer to 6A packaged dies
- 2005-2019 SiC Schottky diodes market forecasts in units and revenues for PFC
- 2005-2019 SiC Schottky diodes wafers consumption for PFC business
- 2005-2019 substrate market value for SiC Schottky diodes in PFC business
- Discrete SiC SBD available on the market as off Q39
- Conclusion and perspectives
MediuVoltage Applications
EV/HEV market
- EV/HEV types and availability: Micro, Mild, Full and plug in Hybrid
- HEV/EV principles and functionalities:
- Projection of market shares of EV, HEV & FCV over ICE to 2019
- Sales projection for EV/HEV to 2019 in million units
- Why SiC in cars ?
- Current device technologies in use
- 2 key power modules: DC-DC boost converter and DC-AC inverter
- Expected improvements of SiC introduction in HEV
- The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV (according to Toyota)
- Roadmap for operation voltage in HEV
- Industrial supplchain and typical market prices from modules to power train
- Added value analysis of SiC electronics for HEV: fuel consumption and money savings
- Overview of Toyota HEV power module
- HEV inverter module cost breakdown
- Silicon vs. SiC HEV inverter cost breakdown
- Sales projection for Silicon and SiC devices in EV/HEV inverters to 2019
- 4 and 6 SiC substrate volume projection for SiC devices in HEV to 2019
- SiC device suppliers - car manufacturers relationships
- Conclusion: perspective for SiC devices in the HEV
Inverters for solar panels
- Electric parameter of solar cells
- Solar market segmentation
- Installed base and annual demand of PV in MW to 2019
- Inverter module key parameters
- Cost breakdown of a solar installation and inverter cost in $/kW
- Typical cost breakdown of a single string inverter for residential application
- Trends in PV voltage
- First SiC inverter demonstrators: Fraunhofer ISE (D)
- First SiC inverter demonstrators: Kassel Institute (D)
- Electronic devices in PV inverters
- TOP-5 solar inverter main manufacturers
- SiC for solar power
- Volume and market of PV inverters split by type 2008-2019
- Device market for PV inverters. % of SiC market penetration and related size
- Market volume for SiC wafers for PV inverters
UPS (Uninterrupted Power Supply) market
- Global UPS market: Market value, main uses and worldwide sales
- UPS products segments
- Projection of world UPS market to 2019, split by power range
- UPS vendors market shares
- UPS architectures examples
- 2007-2019 Silicon and SiC device market forecasts in UPS applications
- 2006-2019 SiC substrate market forecasts in USP applications
- Conclusion: SiC success chances in the UPS segment
Industrial motor AC drives market
- AC drives applications
- Motor drives history
- AC drives market generalities
- 2008-2019 projection for AC drives market as a function of power range
- Less than 10 % of electric motors in the world are fitted with an AC drive.
- AC drives Total Accessible Market Volumes
- AC drives market shares
- AC Drives SupplChain
- AC drives electronic architecture
- SiC in AC drives: Results from Rockwell Automation
- SiC in AC drives: Others initiatives
- Total Accessible Market for SiC in AC Drives
- 2008-2018 Silicon and SiC device market value in AC drive applications
- SiC substrates market in units and $ for Motor AC drive applications
- Conclusion: Success chances for SiC in drives applications
HigVoltage Applications
Rail traction
- From grid to IGBT: Typical voltage range
- Estimation of the world market share of train rolling stock manufacturers
- Main voltage ranges implemented by major train manufacturers
- Main parameters for the calculations and definitions. 2007 starting point
- World market volume for IGBT modules used in rail transportation, split by voltage
- Tentative roadmap for SiC introduction in rail transportation. Device (chip) market
- SiC substrate market size for Rail Traction
Smart Power Grid :
- Electrical grid management trends
- Growing need for electricity : will double from 2004 to 2030
- Transition from today architecture to tomorrow distributed network and smart grid management
- Architectures of Smart Power Distribution Sytems: HVDC & FACTS
- HVDC and FACTS use
- HVDC and FACTS main advantage
- HVDC and FACTS market data
- HVDC standard and HVDC light from ABB
- Voltage Source ConverterHVDC light
- Typical IGBT setup in an HVDC light system
- Estimated worldwide HVDC installed capacity in MW
- FACTS (Flexible AC transmission systems) technologies
- FACTS technologies
- Example of supplchain in power grids
- Estimation of market size for Silicon and SiC devices (chips) in both HVDC & FACTS applications
- SiC substrate market size for both HVDC & FACTS applications
Ships and vessels propulsion
- Market segments
- Ships definition
- Example of propulsion setup
- Market outlook. Annual demand in units
- Current Silicon IGBT use and hypothesis
- IGBT module shipments in units
- Market for power devices in ships & vessels propulsion
- SiC substrate market in Units and $ for Ships and Vessels propulsion
Wind Power Market: Power converters for wind turbines
- Installed base and annual demand in GW and units
- Annual installed capacity geographical breakdown
- Wind turbine architecture
- Wind turbine generators and power converters
- Variable speed wind power electrical characteristics
- Variable speed wind turbine inverters
- Industrial supplchain
- Wind turbines market trends
- Typical architecture of a 2MW Double Fed Induction Generator (DFIG): 80% of the market
- 6-pack Silicon IGBT module and diode market for wind turbine
- Transistor + diode market for wind turbines in Silicon and SiC market penetration
- SiC substrate market in Units and $ for Wind Turbines
- Conclusions
SiC substrates market
- What has changed in 08?
- Statoart in SiC crystal growth
- SiC material: from polytype to devices
- From powder to SiC epready wafers Sublimation (PVT) technique
- SiC crystal growth techniques comparison table
- Main SiC material manufacturing site locations Bulk and/or epfoundry
- 2009 estimated SiC substrates monthly production
- Material polytypes, doping & orientation commercially available
- 2006, 2007 & 2008 SiC substrate vendor revenues & related market shares (type and S.I.)
- Key accounts of main SiC material vendors 2008 status
- SiC ephouse and epservice offers
- Wafers diameter evolution in production for Power Electronics
- Wafers diameter evolution in production for GaN/SiC LED
- Wafers diameter evolution in production for GaN/SiC RF devices
- 2005-2019 SiC row substrates price evolution split by type (S.I. / type) and diameter (2, 3, 4 and 6)
- Volume dependency of SiC type pricing as a function of the lot size. Example for 3 and 4
- Comparison SiC/Si for cost of raw substrate for a 1 Amp device
- Impact of the ofcut on the ingot yield
- SiC epitaxy: typical process time
- Overview of SiC epreactors installebase (noexhaustive list)
- Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2008-2019
- Conclusion
SiC Technology: Discrete device & Power Module
- $/mm² for SiC row substrate and processed device in 2009 and 2015
- SiC power devices: chips size and power density
- Current density SiC material price pushes for high A/mm²
- Current density (A/mm²) roadmap for SiC devices in production
- SiC transistor: who is active?
- SiC device voltage range covered by main companies (Prod. or R&D)
- 2010 MOSFET cost breakdown model projection
From 4 wafer to 1200V/100A packaged dies
- SiC MOSFET: statothart
- SiC diodes: statothart
- SiC JFET statothart
- SiC BJT: statothart
- SiC Thyristor: statothart
- Main power module products implementing SiC devices
- AIST 300kVA SiC inverter
- Mitsubishi Electric 3.7kW SiC inverter
- Mitsubishi Electric 11kW SiC inverter
- CREE / Kansai Electric 100 kVA SiC Inverter
- Peregrine Power
- APEI Inc.
- SatCon Power Systems
General conclusion. Perspectives of the SiC industry
Appendix
- Sumitomo Metal Industries Liquid Phase Epitaxy process
- SiC epreactor LPE-EPI (Milano, italy)
- SiC epreactor Epigress (Aixtron Group)
- CREE company profile
- 2008 fiscal year results (Ended June 29th, 2008)
- Distribution of 2007-2008 revenues
- building of CREE-OSRAM business relations
- 2005 to 2008 analysis: breakdown by main customers
- Location & Size
- Facilities Equipment