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Post-Recession Outlook of the Electronics Industry and Connectors
Roadmap 2009-2019

Post-Recession Outlook of the Electronics Industry and Connectors Roadmap 2009-2019

This new report is a roadmap study of the electronics industry and connectors, with 90 tables and many photos and illustrations. Taking off from work done on the 2009 iNEMI Roadmap, this study analyzes major elements of the electronics industry that parallel, intersect and influence connectors, and looks at the connector industry's markets, technology and forecasts major product roadmaps from 2009-2019. Compiled during, and influenced by the 2008-2009 recession, the report analyzes how the industry will move forward from the current point in time, and forecasts markets from 2007-2013 and gives a long-range outlook to 2019, including the impact of a slowing IC technology - a critical driver for connector technology and demand.
Deep recessionary forces facing electronics were caused by forces external to the industry - not by boom and bust cycles in the industry such as happened in 2000. The 2008-2009 recession was caused by a crisis in the financial and housing sectors, followed by a credit crunch and stock market plunge that shut off demand for products and services.
This crisis had been building in the economy for some time, brought on by cheap credit, speculation in the housing market, and a lack of conservative financial management. As of this writing, the 2009 downturn is still lingering, although it may have hit bottom in 1Q09. There are some signs of improvement, the 'connector confidence index' is up, but positive changes are slow and painful for some. Employment tends to lag recovery, and this recession is no different. We do not know for certain when and how fast positive growth will resume. There remains a 'big hole' to dig out of, which may result in a 3 year period of recovery.
Many forecasters think the recession has or will soon end, and will be followed by a slow recovery in 4Q09, picking up 2010. There is some improvement as of Sept 2009, but 1H09 was down 35 percent from 2008. There remains uncertainty due to the unprecedented situation we have faced:

  • Unknown depth and breadth of the current credit crunch.
  • Government response, which is exploding debt and will require tax increases.
  • Continuing impact of huge hit on personal savings and investment.
  • Continuing impact on discretionary purchases, i.e. electronic equipment, consumer electronics.
  • The now greater exposure of the industry to consumer spending (> 60 percent of total semiconductor dollars).
  • Specific industry issues: automotive, consumer, computers/peripherals, and medical.
  • Automotive, a most important connector market, is undergoing a massive restructuring.
  • Government stimulus is mostly non-electronic: Infrastructure, social Programs.

The connector industry forecast is conservative - based on depth of current recession and issues in automotive market. Growth rate 2008-13 is just 1.5 percent, indicating a slow recovery similar to what occurred after 911. But growth rate 2009-13 is 9.5 percent/year. Possibility exists for a more robust recovery, with pent up demand. This seems unlikely due to continued high levels of unemployment, slow recovery in housing market, and other issues.

  • Chapter 1 - Technology Roadmaps
    • The Roadmap Process
    • Areas of Focus
    • Industry Input
    • Technology Roadmap for IC Substrates
    • Is it Worth The Time?
    • Possible Outline for a Connector Company Roadmap
    • Memory Socket Roadmap
    • Roadmap Manuscript from Sandia Laboratories
    • Phase II. Development of the Technology Roadmap
    • Phase III. Follow-up Activity
    • Abstract
    • Executive Summary
    • Fundamentals of Technology Road mapping Introduction
    • Uses and Benefits of Technology Road mapping
    • What is Technology Road mapping?
    • What is a Technology Roadmap?
    • Types of Technology Roadmaps
    • Planning and Business Development Context for Technology Road mapping
    • Knowledge and Skills Required for Technology Road mapping
    • Technology Road mapping Process
    • The three phases in the technology road mapping process
    • Phase I: Preliminary Activity
    • Phase II: Development of the Technology Roadmap
    • Phase III: Follow-up Activity
    • Technology Roadmap Example
    • Conclusions
    • Future Work
    • References
    • Road mapping Glossary
  • Chapter 2 - Electronics Industry Roadmaps
    • Introduction
    • Final Assembly Roadmap Exposure
    • Factors that will Change, Improve, or Complicate Final Assembly
    • Rationale for Final Assembly Outsourcing Projections
    • Final Assembly Future - Connector Industry
    • Positive
    • Mixed
    • Potentially Negative
    • Board Assembly
    • Connectors
    • Smallest Connector Size
    • Integrated Passive Board Assembly
    • Buried Resistors and Capacitors
    • EMS Industry And Board Assembly
    • Top 100 EMS/ODM with Primary Manufacturing Location
    • Top 100 CM/EMS - World & US Summary
    • Top 100 Summary
    • Board Assembly Future - Connector Industry
    • Positive
    • Mixed
    • Potentially Negative
    • Printed Wiring Boards (PWB)
    • PWB Types and Applications
    • Past
    • Present
    • Flexible Circuitry
    • Current State of PWB Technology
    • Roadmap of PWB Technology - Conventional + Build Up Multilayer
    • World Estimate - PWB Marketplace by Region 2006-2019
    • Roadmap Questions for Future PWB Applications and Technology
    • Strategic Issues
    • Top 50 PCB Manufacturers & Location
    • Electronic Packaging
    • Packaging Markets
    • Focus on IC Packaging
    • Package Types and Growth
    • SiP vs. SoC
    • Package Density and Miniaturization
    • Single Chip IO Package Roadmap 2009-2015|
    • Top 25 Semiconductor Companies + Estimated Connector Usage
    • Electronic Packaging vs. High Speed Signal Integrity|
    • High Speed interconnect 2004-2019
    • DesignCon News
    • Semiconductors
    • 1999-2009:
    • 2009-2019:
    • Top 25 IC Companies as of 2008
    • Top 25 Rankings by iSuppi
    • Semiconductor Roadmap Impact on Connectors
    • For ICs:
    • IC-to-Connectors:
  • Chapter 3 - More Electronics Industry Roadmaps
    • Environmental Electronics
    • Mass Data Storage
    • HDDs Types and Capacities
    • Existing and new players in HDD, Memory Card Storage/SSD market:
    • SSDs are Coming: Notebooks, Servers, Storage Equip, Telecom, Medical, Gaming
    • Toshiba Comment
    • SSD OEMs
    • World Hard Disk Market 2003-2013
    • Estimated Worldwide SSD Markets 2003-2013
    • Worldwide Memory Card Market
    • Optoelectronics
    • Telecom Applications
    • Datacom Applications
    • LANs
    • Plastic Optical Fiber POF
    • Electronic Packaging & Interconnect
    • FO Backplane Systems
    • Fiber-to-the-Home
    • Fiber-from-the-Chip
  • Chapter 4 - Connector Technology
    • Introduction
    • Future of Connector Technology
    • 2009 Recession Impact on Market:
    • Recessionary Impact on Connector Research
    • Recessionary Impact on Industry Research, Development and New Products
    • Impact by Market
    • Connector Product Design
    • Connector Technology
    • Connector Product Categories
    • Levels of Interconnect
    • Market Forces Impacting Technology
    • Technology Roadmap and Trends
    • Core Technology
    • Technology Roadblocks
    • Technology Requirements & Challenges by Connector Type
    • Roadblock Summary
    • Key Areas for Development
    • Comment for Connector Customers
    • Some Recent Connector Development Examples
  • Chapter 5 - Connector Roadmap
    • Will the Electronics Industry and the Connector Industry Approach Maturity during the Next 10 Years?
    • Industry Maturity Index 2009-2019
    • Electronics Industry Continuum
    • Connector Technology Trends
    • View of the Future
    • World Connector Markets 2007-2013
    • Connectors' Major Market Segments
    • Connector Share by Market Segment, 2009
    • Some Major Customers
    • Nominal/Optimist Connector Industry Forecast - Worldwide Sales 2007-2019
    • Dynamics Impacting Future Industry Direction
    • Connector Technology Future
    • Changing Customers, Requirements
    • Barriers to be Overcome by the Connector Industry
    • Key Points about Changing Connector Requirements
    • Changing Outlook from 2009-2019
    • Connector Market Review
    • Global Sales 1981-2008
    • Regional Sales
    • Connector Description
    • Top 20 Connector Manufacturers 2008-2014E
    • Trends in Regional Connector Markets - Manufacturing and Consumption:
    • Taiwan:
    • Taiwan-China
    • European Connector Differentiation vs. Global Market
    • Manufacturing Movement in Europe East + Asia
    • European Opportunities within 2009-19 Timeframe
    • Globalization Impact
    • Europe Engineering:
    • Global Connector Design
    • Global Connector Manufacturing
    • Keys for Connector Makers in Adjusting to this Trend
    • Key Manufacturing Parameters
    • Environmental Regulations
    • Ongoing Questions:
    • Issues as of 2009
    • INEMI Position of Flame Retardants
    • Key Connector Industry Needs 2009-2014
    • Connector Type Summary
    • Critical Issues Impacting the Industry
    • Other Points
    • Major Development Work anticipated
    • Connectors Core Competencies
    • Technology Needs - Manufacturing
    • Base Metals
    • Contact Fabrication
    • Parts Manufacturing
    • Connector Assembly
    • Manufacturing Trends
    • Manufacturing Automation
    • Attributes of Levels of Automation
    • Manufacturing Summary
    • Connector Challenges Going Forward
    • Key Areas For Development
    • Gaps in Existing Connector Technology
    • Areas where Gaps to OEM/EMS Requirements Will Occur
    • Computer & Peripheral, Office Equipment Roadmap
    • Portable Systems Roadmap: Cell Phone, Notebook, Consumer
  • Chapter 6 - Product Roadmaps
    • IC Sockets
    • Production IC Sockets
    • (LGA-PGA-other - for Processors, ASICs)
    • Dual Inline Memory Sockets
    • (JEDEC DIMM Sockets)
    • Flash Memory Connectors
    • Memory Card Receptacles
    • (Flash Memory Sockets)
    • PCB Connectors
    • PCB Connectors
    • (PCI Express example)
    • Generic PCB Connectors
    • PCB Connectors (100s of PNs) are the largest Connector Category
    • Universal Serial Bus Connectors
    • Mini USB & Firewire SLR Camera Ports
    • USB/IEEE1394 Connectors Roadmap Data
    • FPC/FEC Cable to Board Connectors
    • Wire-to-Board
    • (Miniature FPC/FEC Connectors)
    • Board Stacking
    • Miniature Board Stacking Connectors
    • Backplane Connectors
    • 2mm Backplane Connectors
    • (Compact PCI Example)
    • High Performance Backplane Connectors
    • (Various OEM/Licensed Designs)
    • Fiber Optic Connectors
    • Bottom Line:
    • Background
    • FO Deployment
    • Formidable Roadblocks
    • Available Elements of a Photonic System
    • Future Breakthroughs
    • Fiber Optic Connector Roadmap
    • 2009-2019
    • Communication Cables
    • Connector Linkage
    • Some Types of Cable
    • TIA Part 568 Cat 5-7 Cable
    • Industrial Ethernet Cable
    • Plenum/Riser Cable - Commercial Buildings
    • Battery Application, Connector Projections 2000-2019
    • Test & Burn-In Sockets
    • Critical Issues:
    • Test Socket Technology Trends
    • Key Design Issues
    • Key Points
    • Burn-In Sockets
    • Test:
    • Burn-In
    • Test & Burn-In Sockets
    • Some Industry Recommendations
  • Chapter 7 - Forecast Scenarios
    • Recessions, Recovery and Growth
    • 2001-2003
    • 2008-2010
    • Connector Company Rankings - Top 20 Connector Manufacturers 1998-2008
    • Top 50 by Region - 1998
    • 51-100 and Total Top 100 Sales - 1998
    • Top 50 by Region - 2008
    • 51-100 and Total Top 100 Sales - 2008
    • Top 10 Summary by Region 1998
    • Top 10 Summary by Region 2008
    • Top 10 by Region 1998 2008
    • Connector Industry Forecast
    • Worldwide Sales by Region 2007-2013
    • Connector Industry Forecast
    • Worldwide Sales by Equipment Sector 2007-2013
    • 2007-2019 Market Projections
    • Market Bar Chart 2009-2014-2019
    • Manufacturing Value
  • List of Tables
    • Table 7.19 Connector Industry by Region 2007-13
  • Connector Manufacturing Value by Region 2007-2013
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