Retail Futures 2010: Health & Beauty

The squeeze on margins, new NHS contracts, and consolidation will squeeze out the smaller independent pharmacists, reducing specialist sales space by over 200,000 sq ft and specialists will need to consolidate into larger groups to gain scale economies.

Scope

• Market value and growth, inflation 1995-2004 with annual forecasts to 2010 for the health & beauty market and individual categories separately.
• Analysis of key issues that will shape market demand over the forecast period
• Channels of distribution analysis for 2004,2005 and 2010 - detailing health & beauty sales for key retail types and spending by category

Highlights

Grocers will account for half of the health & beauty market by 2010.By 2010 health & beauty specialists will have lost a potential 1bn of sales.Skincare is not only the fastest growing category, but it will also become the most valuable by 2010.

Reasons to Purchase

• Plan confidently for the future with reliable independent forecasts for market growth
• Optimise buying. Identify fast growing categories and allocate resources so that you can capitalise on them
• Incentivise managers to outperform by setting your growth forecasts against an independent source

• Key Findings
• Main Conclusions
• Forecast Summary
• Expenditure Summary
  • Table 1: Health & beauty summary data - expenditure 2000, 2005 & 2010
  • Figure 1: Health & beauty expenditure growth 1995-2004 and forecast to 2010
• Specialists Summary
  • Table 2: Health & beauty summary data - specialists sales 2000, 2005 & 2010
  • Figure 2: Health & beauty specialists sales growth 1995-2004 and forecast to 2010
• Key Market Issues
• Overview
  • Figure 3: Key issues impacting the health & beauty market 2005-2010
• Economies of Scale a Major Advantage
• Skincare Boom
  • Figure 4: UK forecast population by age group 2005 and 2010
• Self-medication
• Grocers to Grab Half of Market
• Health & Beauty Specialists Outlook
• Retail Sales
  • Table 3: All sales through health & beauty specialists 1995-2010
  • Table 4: Sources of growth for health & beauty specialists 1995-2010
  • Figure 5: Health & beauty specialists sales as a % of total retail spending 1995-2010
• Store Numbers
  • Figure 6: Health & beauty specialists store numbers 1995-2010
• Space Growth
  • Figure 7: Space growth for health & beauty specialists 1995-2010
  • Table 5: Total selling space for health & beauty specialists 1995-2010
• Sales Densities
  • Figure 8: Health & beauty specialists' sales densities at current prices 1995-2010
  • Figure 9: Health & beauty specialists' sales densities at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Channels of Distribution
• Sales & Spending
  • Figure 10: Channels of distribution 2004, 2005 and 2010
• Forecast Changes for Major Sectors
  • Figure 11: Changes in shares of health & beauty market 2010 on 2005
• Health & Beauty Market Shares
  • Table 6: Retailers share of the health & beauty market 2000-2005e
  • Figure 12: Health & beauty retailers change in market share 2000-2005e
• Category Forecasts
• Expenditure Summary
  • Table 7: Health & Beauty expenditure summary 2000, 2005 & 2010
  • Figure 13: Health & beauty category growth rates 2000-2005 & 2005-2010
• Expenditure Analysis
  • Table 8: Health & beauty category analysis 2005-2010
  • Figure 14: Health & beauty principal components of expenditure m 2000, 2005 & 2010
• Market Growth
  • Table 9: Total health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 15: Health & beauty expenditure as a % of total spending 1995-2010
  • Figure 16: Health & beauty expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Babycare Products
  • Table 10: Babycare expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 17: Babycare expenditure as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 18: Babycare expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Bathroom Toiletries
  • Table 11: Bathroom toiletries expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 19: Bathroom toiletries expenditure as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 20: Bathroom toiletries expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Cosmetics
  • Table 12: Cosmetics expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 21: Cosmetics expenditure as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 22: Cosmetics expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Dentalcare
  • Table 13: Dentalcare expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 23: Dentalcare as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 24: Dentalcare expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Haircare
• Table 14: Haircare expenditure 1995-2010
• Figure 25: Haircare expenditure as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
• Figure 26: Haircare expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Men's Toiletries
  • Table 15: Men's toiletries expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 27: Men's toiletries expenditure as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 28: Men's toiletries expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Otc Medicines
  • Table 16: OTC medicines expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 29: OTC medicines expenditure as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 30: OTC medicines expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Paper Products
  • Table 17: Paper products expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 31: Paper products expenditure as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 32: Paper products expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Perfumes
  • Table 18: Perfumes expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 33: Perfumes as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 34: Perfumes expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Skincare
  • Table 19: Skincare expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 35: Skincare expenditure as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 36: Skincare expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Other Health & Beauty
  • Table 20: Other health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 37: Other as a % of health & beauty expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 38: Other expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
• Economic Forecasts
• Key Messages
  • Table 21: Economic factors affecting retail 2005-2010
• Gdp
  • Figure 39: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2001) prices 1995-2010
  • Earnings & Disposable Income
  • Figure 40: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1995-2010
  • Figure 41: Real household disposable income at constant (2001) prices 1995-2010
• Employment
  • Figure 42: UK employment 1995-2010
  • Figure 43: UK unemployment 1995-2010
• Inflation
  • Figure 44: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1995-2010
  • Table 22: Measures of inflation
• Exchange Rates
  • Figure 45: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1995-2010
• Interest Rates
  • Figure 46: UK average base rates 1996-2006
• Savings Ratio
  • Figure 47: Savings ratio 1995-2010
• Consumer Debt
  • Figure 48: Growth in consumer debt 1995-2010
• Shares
  • Figure 49: FTSE 100 Index 1995-2010
• House Price Inflation
  • Figure 50: UK house price inflation 1995-2010
• Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
  • Figure 51: Mortgage equity withdrawal 1995-2010
• Housing Transactions
  • Figure 52: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1995-2010
• Uk Retailing Forecasts
• Key Indicators
  • Figure 53: UK retailing forecasts summary 2005-2010
• Retail Expenditure 1995-2010
  • Table 23: Total consumer retail expenditure 1995-2010
  • Figure 54: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1995-2004 and forecast to 2010
  • Figure 55: Consumer spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1995-2004 and forecast to 2010
  • Table 24: Forecast chronology 2005-2010
• Sources of Growth 1995-2010
  • Table 25: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1995-2010
  • Table 26: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1995-2010
• Sales by Location 1995-2010
  • Figure 56: Retail spending by location 2005 and 2010
  • Table 27: Sales by location 1995-2010
  • Figure 57: Share of turnover by location 1995-2010
• Shops by Location 1995-2010
  • Table 28: Shop numbers 1995-2010
  • Figure 58: Share of shops by location 1995, 2000, 2005 & 2010
• Space by Location 1995-2010
  • Table 29: Space by location 1995-2010
• Sales Density by Location 1995-2010
  • Table 30: Sales densities by location at current prices 1995-2010
• Average Store Size 1995-2010
  • Table 31: Average store size by location 1995-2010
• Average Store Sales 1995-2010
  • Table 32: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1995-2010
• Glossary
• Terminology
• Market Definitions
  • Table 33: Health & beauty market definition 2005
• Location Definitions
• Forecasting Methodology
  • Figure 59: Verdict forecasting methodology
• Abbreviations