Retail Futures 2010: Composite

Publication Date	November 2005
Publisher	Verdict
Product Type	Report
Pages	151
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	VDT00066

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Summary

This report analyses the current and future trends in demand, inflation, store sales, space, store numbers and sales densities and enables retailers to make informed decisions that will allow them to outperform in a very difficult trading environment.

Scope

Forecasts for whole of UK retail - for consumer spending on retail, store sales, space, sales densities with summary breakdown by channel.
Market value and growth, inflation 1995-2004 with annual forecasts to 2010 for 10 retail sectors
Channels of distribution analysis for 2004,2005 and 2010 - for each retail sector

Highlights

2005 - slowest year for retail growth since modern records began 40 years ago.The electricals sector will record the fastest growth rate over the next five years.Grocers will dominate the health & beauty market - growing sales at double the rate of specialists. While consumer expenditure on health & beauty is set to increase by 20.1% over the forecast period, sales at grocers will rise by 27.3%, over twice the pace of specialists.

Reasons to Purchase

Plan confidently for the future with reliable independent forecasts for market growth
Optimise buying. Identify fast growing categories and allocate resources so that you can capitalise on them
Incentivise managers to outperform by setting your growth forecasts against an independent source

Content

Key Findings
Main Conclusions
Forecast Summary
Consumer Spending
- Figure 1: Consumer expenditure growth at current prices 2000-2005 and 2005-2010
Specialists Sales
- Figure 2: Specialists sales growth at current prices 2000-2005 and 2005-2010
Space
- Figure 3: Specialists space growth 2000-2005 and 2005-2010
Sales Densities
- Figure 4: Sales density growth at current prices 2000-2005 and 2005-2010
Sectors
- Table 1: Sector forecast summaries 2005-2010
Sector Analysis
Introduction
Books, News & Stationery
Forecast Summary
- Table 2: Books, news & stationery key numbers 2000, 2005 and 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 5: Books, news & stationery channels of distribution 2004, 2005 & 2010
Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 3: Books, news & stationery specialists sales 1995-2010
- Table 4: Sources of growth for books, news & stationery specialists 1995-2010
Consumer Spending
- Table 5: Total books, news & stationery expenditure 1995-2010
- Table 6: Books, news & stationery expenditure analysis 2005-2010
Clothing & Footwear
Forecast Summary
- Table 7: Clothing & footwear expenditure summary 2000, 2005 & 2010
- Table 8: Clothing summary 2000, 2005 & 2010
- Table 9: Footwear summary 2000, 2005 & 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 6: Clothing & footwear channels of distribution 2004, 2005 & 2010
- Figure 7: Changes in shares of clothing & footwear market 2010 on 2005
Clothing Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 10: Clothing specialists sales 1995-2010
- Table 11: Sources of growth for clothing specialists 1995-2010
Footwear Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 12: Footwear specialists sales 1995-2010
- Table 13: Sources of growth for footwear specialists 1995-2010
Consumer Spending
- Table 14: Clothing and footwear expenditure summary 1995, 2000, 2005 & 2010
- Table 15: Womenswear and menswear expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Table 16: Childrenswear and footwear expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Figure 8: Clothing & footwear expenditure growth rates 1995-00, 2000-05 & 2005-10
Diy & Gardening
Forecast Summary
- Table 17: DIY & gardening expenditure summary 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010
- Figure 9: DIY & gardening expenditure - principal components 2005 and 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 10: DIY & gardening channels of distribution 2004, 2005 & 2010
- Figure 11: Changes in shares of major channels in the DIY & gardening market 2010 on 2005
Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 18: DIY specialists sales 1995-2010
- Table 19: Sources of growth for UK DIY specialists 1995-2010
Consumer Spending
- Table 20: DIY expenditure - principal components 2004, 2005 and 2010
- Table 21: Gardening expenditure - principal components 2004, 2005 and 2010
- Table 22: DIY expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Table 23: Gardening expenditure analysis 2005-2010
Electricals
Forecast Summary
- Table 24: Electricals expenditure summary 2000, 2005 & 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 12: Electricals channels of distribution 2004, 2005 & 2010
- Figure 13: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the electricals market 2010 on 2005
Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 25: Electricals specialists sales 1995-2010
- Table 26: Sources of growth for UK electricals specialists 1995-2010
Consumer Spending
- Table 27: Brown goods expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Table 28: White goods expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Table 29: Grey goods expenditure analysis 2005-2010
Food & Grocery
Forecast Summary
- Table 30: Food & grocery key numbers 1995, 2000, 2005 & 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 14: Food & grocery category growth prospects 2004, 2005 & 2010
- Figure 15: Food & grocery channels of distribution 2004, 2005 & 2010
Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 31: All food & grocery specialists sales 1995-2010
- Table 32: Sources of growth for UK food & grocery retailers 1995-2010
Consumer Spending
- Table 33: Total food & grocery consumer expenditure 1995-2010
- Table 34: Food expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Table 35: Alcoholic drinks & soft drinks expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Table 36: Tobacco & non-durable household goods expenditure analysis 2005-2010
Furniture & Floorcoverings
Forecast Summary
- Table 37: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure summary 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010
- Table 38: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists summaries 2000, 2005 and 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 16: Channels of distribution - furniture & floorcoverings 2004, 2005 & 2010
- Figure 17: Changes in shares of major channels in the furniture market 2010 on 2005
- Figure 18: Changes in shares of major channels in the floorcoverings market 2010 on 2005
Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 39: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists sales 1995-2010
- Table 40: Sources of growth for UK furniture & floorcoverings specialists 1995-2010
Consumer Spending
- Table 41: Total furniture & floorcoverings expenditure 1995-2010
- Table 42: Furniture expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Table 43: Floorcoverings expenditure analysis 2005-2010
Health & Beauty
Forecast Summary
- Table 44: Health & beauty summary data - specialists sales 2000, 2005 & 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 19: Health & beauty channels of distribution 2004, 2005 and 2010
- Figure 20: Changes in shares of health & beauty market 2010 on 2005
Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 45: All sales through health & beauty specialists 1995-2010
- Table 46: Sources of growth for health & beauty specialists 1995-2010
- Figure 21: Health & beauty specialists sales as a % of total retail spending 1995-2010
Consumer Spending
- Table 47: Health & beauty expenditure summary 2000, 2005 & 2010
- Figure 22: Health & beauty category growth rates 2000-2005 & 2005-2010
- Table 48: Health & beauty category analysis 2005-2010
Homewares
Forecast Summary
- Table 49: Homewares expenditure summary 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 23: Homewares channels of distribution 2004, 2005 & 2010
- Figure 24: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the homewares
market 2010 on 2005
Consumer Spending
- Figure 25: Homewares expenditure 1995, 2000, 2005 & 2010 and five-year growth rates
- Figure 26: Homewares breakdown % 1995, 2000, 2005 & 2010
- Table 50: Homewares expenditure analysis 2005-2010
Music & Video
Forecast Summary
- Table 51: Music & video key numbers 2000, 2005 and 2010
Channels of Distribution
- Figure 27: Music & video channels of distribution 2004, 2005 & 2010
- Figure 28: Changes in shares of major channels in the music & video market 2010 on 2005
Specialists Retail Sales
- Table 52: Music & video specialists sales 1995-2010
- Table 53: Sources of growth for music & video specialists 1995-2010
Consumer Spending
- Table 54: Total music & video expenditure 1995-2010
- Table 55: Music & video expenditure analysis 2005-2010
Economic Forecasts
Key Messages
- Table 56: Economic factors affecting retail 2005-2010
Gdp
- Figure 29: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2001) prices 1995-2010
Earnings & Disposable Income
- Figure 30: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1995-2010
- Figure 31: Real household disposable income at constant (2001) prices 1995-2010
Employment
- Figure 32: UK employment 1995-2010
- Figure 33: UK unemployment 1995-2010
Inflation
- Figure 34: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1995-2010
- Table 57: Measures of inflation
Exchange Rates
- Figure 35: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1995-2010
Interest Rates
- Figure 36: UK average base rates 1996-2006
Savings Ratio
- Figure 37: Savings ratio 1995-2010
Consumer Debt
- Figure 38: Growth in consumer debt 1995-2010
Shares
- Figure 39: FTSE 100 Index 1995-2010
House Price Inflation
- Figure 40: UK house price inflation 1995-2010
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
- Figure 41: Mortgage equity withdrawal 1995-2010
Housing Transactions
- Figure 42: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1995-2010
Uk Retailing Forecasts
Key Indicators
- Figure 43: UK retailing forecasts summary 2005-2010
Retail Expenditure 1995-2010
- Table 58: Total consumer retail expenditure 1995-2010
- Figure 44: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending
1995-2004 and forecast to 2010
- Figure 45: Consumer spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends
1995-2004 and forecast to 2010
- Table 59: Forecast chronology 2005-2010
Sources of Growth 1995-2010
- Table 60: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1995-2010
- Table 61: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1995-2010
Sales by Location 1995-2010
- Figure 46: Retail spending by location 2005 and 2010
- Table 62: Sales by location 1995-2010
- Figure 47: Share of turnover by location 1995-2010
Shops by Location 1995-2010
- Table 63: Shop numbers 1995-2010
- Figure 48: Share of shops by location 1995, 2000, 2005 & 2010
Space by Location 1995-2010
- Table 64: Space by location 1995-2010
Sales Density by Location 1995-2010
- Table 65: Sales densities by location at current prices 1995-2010
Average Store Size 1995-2010
- Table 66: Average store size by location 1995-2010
Average Store Sales 1995-2010
- Table 67: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1995-2010
Market Definitions
Books, News & Stationery
- Table 68: Books, news & stationery market definition
Clothing & Footwear
- Table 69: Clothing & footwear market definition
Diy & Gardening
- Table 70: DIY & gardening market definition
Electricals
- Table 71: Electricals market definition
Food & Grocery
- Table 72: Food & grocery market definition
Furniture & Floorcoverings
- Table 73: Furniture & floorcoverings market definition
Health & Beauty
- Table 74: Health & beauty market definition 2005
Homewares
- Table 75: Homewares market definition
Music & Video
- Table 76: Music & video market definition
Glossary
Terminology
Location Definitions
Forecasting Methodology
- Figure 49: Verdict forecasting methodology
Abbreviations