South African Retail Industry Forecast (2007-2011)

Publication Date	May 2007
Publisher	RNCOS
Product Type	Report
Pages	65
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	RCS00182

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Summary

The "South African Retail Industry Forecast (2007-2011)" report provides extensive research and rational analysis of South Africa Retail Industry. This report helps clients to analyze the opportunities and factors critical to the success of retail industry in South Africa.

Key Findings

In South Africa, convenience store format continues to register the highest growth in comparison to other retail formats, as the market for other formats has already reached saturation. Another reason for the growth of C-store format is changing consumer patterns that have compelled retailers to take this format to consumers. The franchise model will also be used more extensively to attain a faster conversion of unorganized retail sector into organized one cost-effectively.
Retail key sectors such as motor vehicles, furniture, clothing, media, property, and cellular phone - all are benefiting from the booming middle-class and will continue to reap benefits in the future as well.
Real disposable income is the core driver for consumer spending and it is expected to grow at a moderate rate during the review period (2007-2011).
Although the demand for durable goods (furniture and appliances) and semi-durable goods should remain buoyant over the forecast period (2007-2011), but the greatest opportunities for retail sales growths are likely to be in the food and groceries sector.
Organic food market, the fastest growing segment in the food sector after baby food market, will grow with a CAGR of 30% during the next four years (2007-2010).

Key Issues and Facts Analyzed

The research report also takes into account the issues and facts that are critical to success of South Africa retail industry, like:

What is the market size and scope of growth of the retail industry in South Africa?
What are the growth prospects and issues related to the industry?
What are the factors driving growth in this sector?
What is the size of segment-wise organized market & what are its growth prospects?
Who are the major players in South African retail industry, their strategies for growth, and their position in the market?
What are the emerging trends in the South African retail industry?
What are the opportunities & challenges before the retailers in South Africa?

Key Players Analyzed

This section covers the key facts about players currently operating in the South Africa retail industry. The section includes overview on market players like Pick n Pay Holding Ltd., Shoprite Holdings Ltd., Spar Group Ltd., Massmart Holdings Ltd., Woolworths Holdings Ltd., Metcash Ltd. and Edgars Stores.

Research Methodology Used

Information Sources

Information has been sourced from various sources like books, newspapers, trade journals, and white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, monitoring industry news and developments, and through access to access to more than 3000 paid databases.

Analysis Methods

The analysis methods include Ratio Analysis, Historical Trend Analysis, Linear Regression Analysis using software tools, Judgmental Forecasting and Cause and Effect Analysis.

Content

1. Analyst View
2. Research Overview
3. Industry Overview
- 3.1 Global - Retail Sales
- 3.2 Global - Retail Sales by Geographical Regions
- 3.3 Africa & Middle East - Retail Sales
- 3.4 South Africa - Retail Industry
4. Industry Performance
- 4.1 South Africa Retail Sales - By Composition
  - 4.1.1 Food Retail Sales
  - 4.1.2 Non-food Retail Sales
- 4.2 South Africa Retail Sales - By Non-food Product
  - 4.2.1 Personal Computers
  - 4.2.2 Clothing & Footwear
  - 4.2.3 Cosmetics & Toiletries
  - 4.2.4 Furniture
  - 4.2.5 Household Cleansing Products
  - 4.2.6 Refrigerator
- 4.3 South Africa Retail Sales - By Store Format
  - 4.3.1 Convenience Stores
  - 4.3.2 Supermarkets
  - 4.3.3 Traditional Markets
5. Industry Analysis
- 5.1 Drivers
  - 5.1.1 Emergence of Black Middle Class
  - 5.1.2 Decrease in Prime Overdraft Interest Rate
  - 5.1.3 Higher Consumer Confidence
  - 5.1.4 Personal Disposable Income
  - 5.1.5 Credit Sales
  - 5.1.6 Negative Saving Level
  - 5.1.7 GDP per Head
  - 5.1.8 Population Growth
  - 5.1.9 Imports from China
- 5.2 Opportunities
  - 5.2.1 Organic Food & Beverages
  - 5.2.2 Non-food Retail Products
  - 5.2.3 Ready-to-Eat Products
  - 5.2.4 Online Retailing
  - 5.2.5 Rapid Growth in Estate Ownership
  - 5.2.6 Credit Demand
  - 5.2.7 Tourism & Western Style Food Outlets
  - 5.2.8 "Proudly South African" Campaign for Local Manufacturers
  - 5.2.9 Demand for Household Products
  - 5.2.10 Foreign Investment
  - 5.2.11 2010 Soccer World Cup
- 5.3 Challenges
  - 5.3.1 High Unemployment
  - 5.3.2 Widespread Poverty
  - 5.3.3 Negative Population Growth
  - 5.3.4 Personal Disposable Income
  - 5.3.5 Prime Overdraft Interest Rate on Cards
  - 5.3.6 Quota on Chinese Import
  - 5.3.7 HIV/AIDS
- 5.4 Future Outlook (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.1 Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.2 Food Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.3 Non-food Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.4 Personal Computer Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.5 Clothing & Footwear Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.6 Cosmetics & Toiletries Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.7 Furniture Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.8 Household Cleansing Product Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
  - 5.4.9 Refrigerator Retail Sales Forecast (2007-2011)
6. Key Players
- 6.1 Pick 'n Pay Holdings Ltd.
- 6.2 Shoprite Holdings Ltd.
- 6.3 Metcash Ltd.
- 6.4 Massmart Holdings Ltd.
- 6.5 Woolworths Holdings Ltd.
- 6.6 Spar Group Ltd.
- 6.7 Edgars Stores
List of Figures:
- Figure 3-1: Global - Retail Sales (in Trillion US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 3-2: Global - Retail Sales by Geographical Regions (in Trillion US$), 2006E
- Figure 3-3: South Africa - Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-1: South Africa - Food Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-2: South Africa - Non-food Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-3: South Africa - Personal Computer Retail Sales (in Million), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-4: South Africa - Clothing Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-5: South Africa - Footwear Retail Sales (in Million US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-6: South Africa - Cosmetics & Toiletries Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-7: South Africa - Furniture Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-8: South Africa - Household Cleansing Products Retail Sales (in Million US$), 2001-2006E
- Figure 4-9: South Africa - Refrigerator Retail Sales (in Thousand), 2001-2006E
- Figure 5-1: South Africa - Prime Overdraft Interest Rate (%), 1990 to 2005
- Figure 5-2: South Africa - Consumer Confidence Index (in Points), 1983 to 2003
- Figure 5-3: South Africa - Personal Disposable Income (in Million US$), 2001-2006
- Figure 5-4: South Africa - Value of Credit Sales (in Million Rand), 2004 to 2006
- Figure 5-5: South Africa - Saving to Income & Debt to Income Ratio (%), Q1 1994 to Q2 2005
- Figure 5-6: South Africa - GDP per Head (in US$), 2001-2006
- Figure 5-7: South Africa - Population (in Million), 2001-2006
- Figure 5-8: South Africa - Textile Import from China (in Billion Rand), 2001-2005 & Jan-Aug '06
- Figure 5-9: South Africa - Organic Food Market (in Million US$), 2003-2006E
- Figure 5-10: South Africa - Forecast for Organic Food Market (in Million US$), 2007-2010
- Figure 5-11: South Africa - Urbanization (%), 2006, 2015F & 2030F
- Figure 5-12: South Africa - Single Person Households (%), 1990, 2005 & 2015F
- Figure 5-13: South Africa - Online Retail Sales (in Million US$), 2003-2005
- Figure 5-14: South Africa - Credit Demand (%), 1996 to 2006
- Figure 5-15: South Africa - Forecast for International Tourist Arrival (in Thousand), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-16: South Africa - Number of Households (in Million), 2006 & 2008F
- Figure 5-17: South Africa - Forecast for GDP per Head (in US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-18: South Africa - Forecast for Employment (in Million), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-19: South Africa - Forecast for Population (in Million), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-20: South Africa - Forecast for Personal Disposable Income (in Million US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-21: South Africa - Forecast for Prime Overdraft Interest Rate (%), 1990 to 2008
- Figure 5-22: South Africa - Forecast for Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-23: South Africa - Forecast for Food Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-24: South Africa - Forecast for Non-food Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-25: South Africa - Forecast for Personal Computer Retail Sales (in Million), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-26: South Africa - Forecast for Clothing Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-27: South Africa - Forecast for Footwear Retail Sales (in Million US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-28: South Africa - Forecast for Cosmetics & Toiletries Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-29: South Africa - Forecast for Furniture Retail Sales (in Billion US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-30: South Africa - Forecast for Household Cleansing Products (in Billion US$), 2007-2011
- Figure 5-31: South Africa - Forecast for Refrigerator Retail Sales (in Million), 2007-2011
List of Tables:
- Table 3-1: Global - Top 10 Retailers by Net Sales (in Billion US$), 2005
- Table 3-2: Africa & Middle East - Top 30 Grocery Retailers by Sale (in Million US$), 2005E
- Table 4-1: South Africa - Major Retail Chains Profile (2005-06)
- Table 4-2: South Africa - Major Convenience Stores (in Numbers), 2005-06
- Table 5-1: South Africa - Mobility of Black Middle Class (%), 2000 & 2005
- Table 6-1: Pick 'n Pay Holdings Ltd. - Key Financials (in Million Rand), 2004 & 2005
- Table 6-2: Shoprite Holdings Ltd. - Key Financials (in Million Rand), 2005 & 2006
- Table 6-3: Massmart Holdings Ltd. - Key Financials (in Million Rand), 2004 & 2005
- Table 6-4: Woolworths Holdings Ltd. - Key Financials (in Million Rand), 2004 & 2005
- Table 6-5: Spar Group Ltd. - Key Financials (in Million Rand), 2004 & 2005