UK Retail Futures 2011

DIY and Gardening

Publication Date	March 2007
Publisher	Verdict
Product Type	Report
Pages	137
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	VDT00210

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Summary

Introduction

Verdict Research: Long used to being one of the fastest growing sectors in retail the DIY & gardening market has now declined in value for two years running. This report analyses the macroeconomic, social and consumer factors that shape sector demand to provide detailed and reliable forecasts. It is an essential reference tool for any business with a stake in the sector.

Scope

Five year forecasts to 2011 for DIY & gardening market expenditure, inflation and volume growth with ten year historic data.
In-depth analysis of key market issues that will shape demand and retailer responses over the next five years.
Forecasts and historic data for DIY specialists sales, market shares and analysis of main channels of distribution.
Comprehensive category analysis covering inflation, volume and sales growth for DIY and gardening with further analysis for nine sub categories.

Highlights

The DIY & Gardening market is set to recover after two years of declining sales. Such weak performance would be difficult for any retailers to cope with, but for DIY retailers, long accustomed to enjoying some of the fastest growing sectors in retail, the plunge in market performance has proved particularly traumatic.

The key to the sector's decline has been its heavy exposure to the housing market. Not only has less certain house price growth cut the incentive to invest in home improvement, but it has reduced the capacity for householders to withdraw equity from their homes, a key source of finance for home improvement expenditure.

The market will return to growth in 2007, but performance over the next five years will be sluggish with total growth of only 12.5% over the forecast period. This will make the market one of the worst performers in retail of the major retail sectors only furniture & floorcoverings and music & video will fare worse.

Reasons to Purchase

Use this report to plan strategies that will help capitalise on opportunities and compete effectively against rivals in a fast changing market.
Enhance your understanding of key issues, trends and dynamics that will affect your business over the next five years.
Detailed category forecasts allow you to quantify opportunities in fast growing categories and avoid over-investment in weaker segments.

Content

Chapter 1 Executive Summary
- Key Findings
- Main Conclusions
Chapter 2 Forecast Summary
- Expenditure Summary
- DIY Specialists Summary
Chapter 3 Key Market Issues
- Overview
- Improving Macroeconomic Landscape
- More Cautious Approach to Store Development
- Further Opportunities in Non-DIY Categories
- Margin Enhancing Strategies
- Service Enhancing Initiatives
- Coping with Less Media Coverage
- Adjusting to 'Done For You'
- Grocers Gain but Other Non-specialists Struggle
- Consolidation Transforms Gardening Sector
Chapter 4 Diy Specialists Forecasts
- Retail Sales
- Sources of Sales Growth
- Share of Total Sales
- Store Numbers
- Space Growth
- Sales Densities
Chapter 5 Channels Of Distribution
- Sales & Spending
- Forecast Changes for Major Channels
- Market Shares
Chapter 6 Category Forecasts
- Expenditure Summary
- Principal Components
- Expenditure Analysis
- Expenditure Growth
- DIY
- Gardening
Chapter 7 UK Economic Forecasts
- Key Messages
- GDP
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Earnings & Disposable Income
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Employment
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Inflation
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Exchange Rates
- How do they affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Interest Rates
- How do they affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Savings Ratio
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Consumer Debt
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Equities
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- House Price Inflation
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Housing Transactions
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
Chapter 8 UK Retailing Forecasts
- Key Indicators
- Retail Expenditure 1996-2011
- Sales by Location 1996-2011
- Sources of Growth 1996-2011
- Store Numbers by Location 1996-2011
- Space by Location 1996-2011
- Sales Density by Location 1996-2011
- Average Store Size 1996-2011
- Average Store Sales 1996-2011
Chapter 9 Glossary
- Terminology
- Market Definition
- Location Definitions
- Town Centre
- Out-of-town
- Neighbourhood
- Non-store Retail
- Forecasting Methodology
- Abbreviations
List Of Tables
- Table 1: DIY & gardening expenditure summary 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011
- Table 2: DIY specialists summary 2001, 2006 and 2011
- Table 3: DIY specialists sales 1996-2011
- Table 4: Sources of growth for UK DIY specialists 1996-2011
- Table 5: Total selling space for DIY specialists 1996-2011
- Table 6: Leading retailers market share of DIY & gardening expenditure 2000-2006e
- Table 7: DIY expenditure - principal components 2005, 2006 and 2011
- Table 8: DIY expenditure - principal components change and shares 2005, 2006 and 2011
- Table 9: Gardening expenditure - principal components 2005, 2006 and 2011
- Table 10: Gardening expenditure - principal components change and shares 2005, 2006 and 2011
- Table 11: DIY expenditure analysis 2006-2011
- Table 12: Gardening expenditure analysis 2006-2011
- Table 13: Total DIY & gardening expenditure 1996-2011
- Table 14: DIY expenditure 1996-2011
- Table 15: Gardening expenditure 1996-2011
- Table 16: Economic drivers for retail 2007
- Table 17: Measures of inflation 2007
- Table 18: UK retailing forecasts summary 2006-2011
- Table 19: Total consumer retail expenditure 1996-2011
- Table 20: Forecast chronology 2006-2011
- Table 21: Sales by location 1996-2011
- Table 22: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1996-2011
- Table 23: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1996-2011
- Table 24: Store numbers 1996-2011
- Table 25: Space by location 1996-2011
- Table 26: Sales densities by location at current prices 1996-2011
- Table 27: Average store size by location 1996-2011
- Table 28: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1996-2011
- Table 29: DIY & gardening market definition
List Of Figures
- Figure 1: DIY & gardening expenditure - principal components 2006
- Figure 2: DIY & gardening expenditure - principal components 2011
- Figure 3: DIY specialists sources of growth 1996-2006 and forecast to 2011
- Figure 4: Key market issues 2007-2011
- Figure 5: Range Development Strategies 2007-2011
- Figure 6: Service enhancing initiatives 2007-2011
- Figure 7: Threats to traditional non-specialists 2007-2011
- Figure 8: DIY specialists sales as a % of total UK retail consumer spending 1996-2011
- Figure 9: Total DIY specialists store numbers 1996-2011
- Figure 10: Space growth for DIY specialists 1996-2011
- Figure 11: DIY specialists sales densities at current prices 1996-2011
- Figure 12: DIY specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
- Figure 13: DIY & gardening channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011
- Figure 14: Changes in shares of major channels in the DIY & gardening market 2011 on 2006
- Figure 15: Key DIY & gardening retailers change in market shares 2006e on 2001
- Figure 16: DIY expenditure snapshot 1996-2011
- Figure 17: Gardening expenditure snapshot 1996-2011
- Figure 18: DIY & gardening expenditure as a % of total spending 1996-2011
- Figure 19: DIY & gardening expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
- Figure 20: DIY expenditure as a % of DIY & gardening spending 1996-2011
- Figure 21: DIY expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
- Figure 22: Gardening expenditure as a % of DIY & gardening spending 1996-2011
- Figure 23: Gardening expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
- Figure 24: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
- Figure 25: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1996-2011
- Figure 26: Real household disposable income at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
- Figure 27: UK employment 1996-2011
- Figure 28: UK unemployment 1996-2011
- Figure 29: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1996-2011
- Figure 30: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1996-2011
- Figure 31: UK average base rates 1997-2007e
- Figure 32: Savings ratio 1996-2011
- Figure 33: Growth in consumer debt 1996-2011
- Figure 34: FTSE 100 Index 1996-2011
- Figure 35: UK house price inflation 1996-2011
- Figure 36: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal 1996-2011
- Figure 37: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1996-2011
- Figure 38: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1996-2005 and forecast to 2011
- Figure 39: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1995-2005 and forecast to 2011
- Figure 40: Retail spending by location 2006 and 2011
- Figure 41: Share of turnover by location 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
- Figure 42: % share of store numbers by location 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
- Figure 43: Verdict forecasting methodology 2007