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Malaysia Retail Report Q1 2013

  • Publication Date:January 2013
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:81
  • ISBN:164693

Malaysia Retail Report Q1 2013



Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The Malaysian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags
short-term concerns about the impact on Malaysia's economic outlook of negative wealth effects.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Malaysian retail market while minimising
investment risk, and also explores the impact of a hard landing in the Chinese economy on the Malaysian
consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading
players in the Malaysian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the
local market.

Malaysia comes third (out of seven) in BMI's Asia retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms
slightly for risk.

Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in
growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 40.1% between 2013 and 2017, from US$15.06bn to
US$21.11bn as a growing affluent middle- and upper-income consumer base embraces the concept.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the potential easing of hypermarket regulations.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
o We continue to expect the consensus estimate on Malaysia's real GDP growth for this year - which
presently stands at 4.1% - to move closer to our core view for a more subdued growth rate of 3.3%. The
disappointing reading of China's purchasing managers' index has reinforced our core view for a hard
landing in the Chinese economy, which in turn, compels us to maintain a bearish outlook on Malaysian
exports.
o Households are expected to cut back aggressively on spending over the coming months as new loan
guidelines implemented by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to tighten consumer lending in January 2012
come into effect. Our view that property prices in Malaysia could cool in 2013 also suggests that negative
wealth effects could weigh on private consumption growth over the coming quarters. Growth in consumer
goods imports slowed for the fourth consecutive month, from 33.1% y-o-y in September 2011 to 19.9
%in December 2011, and growth in outstanding credit card balances has also remained on a steady
downtrend since January 2011. We expect this trend to continue.


Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis 6
Malaysia Retail Business Environment SWOT .. 6
Malaysia Political SWOT . 7
Malaysia Economic SWOT ... 8
Market Overview .. 9
Key Players .. 10
Current Trends. 12
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 15
Consumer Outlook ... 15
Retail Growth Outlook . 17
Table: Malaysia Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017 .. 18
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f .. 20
Macroeconomic Outlook .. 20
Table: Malaysia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ... 25
Regional Retail Outlook 26
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook .. 26
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn) . 26
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%) .. 27
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn) .. 29
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017 .. 35
Risk/Reward Ratings . 36
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings ... 36
Malaysia's Retail Rating .. 37
Limits To Potential Returns 37
Risks To Realisation Of Returns . 37
Mass Grocery Retail .. 38
Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT .. 38
Market Overview . 38
Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011 40
Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2005-2011 (US$bn) ... 40
Table: Structure Of Malaysia's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2005-2011 (MYRbn).. 40
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet by Forma, 2011 ... 41
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, 2012 And 2021 (%) . 41
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 41
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2010-2016 .. 43
Industry Developments. 44
Consumer Electronics .. 50
Malaysia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT .. 50
Malaysia Electronics Industry SWOT . 51
Market Overview . 52
Computers... 52
Table: Computers Sales, 2009-2016 ... 52
AV ... 55
Table: AV: Sales, 2009-2016 .. 55
Mobile Handsets . 58
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 ... 58
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 61
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 ... 61
Industry Developments. 62
Government Authority . 64
Automotives ... 65
Malaysia Autos SWOT 65
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 66
Production .. 66
Table: Malaysia Autos Production . 66
Sales ... 67
Table: Malaysia Autos Sales Forecast 2010-2016 .. 67
Trade .. 69
Table: Malaysia Autos Trade, 2010-2016 ... 69
Passenger Cars 70
Table: Malaysia - Passenger Car Sales By Model 2011 71
Demographic Data . 75
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 76
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 77
Table: Malaysia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 78
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ... 78
BMI Methodology .. 79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 79
Sources 80
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