Retail Futures 2010: DIY & Gardening

Publication Date	November 2005
Publisher	Verdict
Product Type	Report
Pages	92
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	VDT00068

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Summary

In the DIY market, the landscape has changed massively over the last year, so up-to-date forecasts are essential for steering a profitable path through challenging times. The slowdown in the housing market and weakness in consumer confidence have hit this sector - normally on of the fastest growing in retail - particularly hard.

Scope

Market value and growth, inflation 1995-2004 with annual forecasts to 2010 for DIY & gardening market and DIY and gardening categories separately.
Analysis of key issues that will shape market demand over the forecast period
Channels of distribution analysis for 2004,2005 and 2010 - detailing DIY & gardening sales for key retail types and spending by category

Highlights

For many years DIY specialists have clocked up repeated year-on-year sales gains that most other retailers can only dream about. But in 2005 the market shrank by 1.6%, reducing its value from 16.7bn to 16.4bn.Retailers' short term ability to invest in store and service improvements will be constrained by weak profitability.Gardening is set to outperform DIY. Being far less affected by the downturn in the housing market gardening will record growth of 0.5% in 2005.

Reasons to Purchase

Plan confidently for the future with reliable independent forecasts for market growth
Optimise buying. Identify fast growing categories and allocate resources so that you can capitalise on them
Incentivise managers to outperform by setting your growth forecasts against an independent source

Content

Main Conclusions
Forecast Summary
Expenditure Summary
- Table 1: DIY & gardening expenditure summary 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010
- Figure 1: DIY & gardening expenditure - principal components 2005 and 2010
Diy Specialists Summary
- Figure 2: DIY specialists sources of growth 1995-2005 and forecast to 2010
- Table 2: DIY specialists summary 2000, 2005 and 2010
Key Market Issues
Overview
- Figure 3: Key issues facing the DIY & gardening market 2005-2010
Housing Market Falters
- Figure 4: Housing transactions 2004-2010
Weaker Consumer Confidence
- Figure 5: Weaker consumer confidence stifles DIY spend 2005
- Figure 6: Mortgage equity withdrawal 2004-2010
Responses - Range Diversification
- Figure 7: Benefits of diversification for DIY retailers 2005-2010
Responses - Extend Range Architectures
- Figure 8: Extend range architectures to encourage trade up 2005-2010
Responses - Aspirational Shopping Environments
- Figure 9: Developing aspirational store environments 2005-2010
Responses - Stronger Service Focus
- Figure 10: Strategies to improve in-store customer service 2005-2010
- Figure 11: Enhancing project services to strengthen customer relationships 2005-2010
Responses - Offer Outdoor Living
- Figure 12: Opportunities in gardening 2005-2010
Responses - Adjust to Older Customers
- Figure 13: Percentage change in population by demographic (000s) 2005-2010
- Figure 14: GB household number estimates (m) 2005-2010
Responses - Capitalise on TV Influence
- Figure 15: Softer marketing approaches to broaden customer base 2005-2010
Specialists Forecasts
Retail Sales
- Table 3: DIY specialists sales 1995-2010
Sources of Sales Growth
- Table 4: Sources of growth for UK DIY specialists 1995-2010
Share of Total Sales
- Figure 16: DIY specialists sales as a % of total UK retail consumer spending 1995-2010
Store Numbers
- Figure 17: Total DIY specialists store numbers (000) 1995-2010
Space Growth
- Figure 18: Space growth for DIY specialists 1995-2010
- Table 5: Total selling space for DIY specialists 1995-2010
Sales Densities
- Figure 19: DIY specialists sales densities at current prices 1995-2010
- Figure 20: DIY specialists sales densities at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
Channels of Distribution
Sales & Spending
- Figure 21: Channels of distribution 2004, 2005 & 2010
Forecast Changes for Major Sectors
- Figure 22: Changes in shares of major channels in the DIY & gardening market 2010 on 2005
Market Shares
- Table 6: Leading retailers market share of DIY & gardening expenditure 1999-2005e
- Figure 23: Key DIY & gardening retailers change in market shares 2000-2005e
Category Forecasts
Expenditure Summary
- Figure 24: DIY expenditure snapshot 1995-2010
- Figure 25: Gardening expenditure snapshot 1995-2010
Principal Components
- Table 7: DIY expenditure - principal components 2004, 2005 and 2010
- Table 8: Gardening expenditure - principal components 2004, 2005 and 2010
Expenditure Analysis
- Table 9: DIY expenditure analysis 2005-2010
- Table 10: Gardening expenditure analysis 2005-2010
Expenditure Growth
- Table 11: Total DIY & gardening expenditure 1995-2010
- Figure 26: DIY & gardening expenditure as a % of total spending 1995-2010
- Figure 27: DIY & gardening expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
Diy
- Table 12: DIY expenditure 1995-2010
- Figure 28: DIY expenditure as a % of DIY & gardening spending 1995-2010
- Figure 29: DIY expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
Gardening
- Table 13: Gardening expenditure 1995-2010
- Figure 30: Gardening expenditure as a % of DIY & gardening spending 1995-2010
- Figure 31: Gardening expenditure growth at constant (2002) prices 1995-2010
Economic Forecasts
Key Messages
- Table 14: Economic factors affecting retail 2005-2010
Gdp
- Figure 32: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2001) prices 995-2010
Earnings & Disposable Income
- Figure 33: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1995-2010
- Figure 34: Real household disposable income at constant (2001) prices 1995-2010
Employment
- Figure 35: UK employment 1995-2010
- Figure 36: UK unemployment 1995-2010
Inflation
- Figure 37: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1995-2010
- Table 15: Measures of inflation
Exchange Rates
- Figure 38: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1995-2010
Interest Rates
- Figure 39: UK average base rates 1996-2006
Savings Ratio
- Figure 40: Savings ratio 1995-2010
Consumer Debt
- Figure 41: Growth in consumer debt 1995-2010
Shares
- Figure 42: FTSE 100 Index 1995-2010
House Price Inflation
- Figure 43: UK house price inflation 1995-2010
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
- Figure 44: Mortgage equity withdrawal 1995-2010
Housing Transactions
- Figure 45: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1995-2010
Uk Retailing Forecasts
Key Indicators
- Figure 46: UK retailing forecasts summary 2005-2010
Retail Expenditure 1995-2010
- Table 16: Total consumer retail expenditure 1995-2010
- Figure 47: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending
1995-2004 and forecast to 2010
- Figure 48: Consumer spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends
1995-2004 and forecast to 2010
- Table 17: Forecast chronology 2005-2010
Sources of Growth 1995-2010
- Table 18: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1995-2010
- Table 19: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1995-2010
Sales by Location 1995-2010
- Figure 49: Retail spending by location 2005 and 2010
- Table 20: Sales by location 1995-2010
- Figure 50: Share of turnover by location 1995-2010
Shops by Location 1995-2010
- Table 21: Shop numbers 1995-2010
- Figure 51: Share of shops by location 1995, 2000, 2005 & 2010
Space by Location 1995-2010
- Table 22: Space by location 1995-2010
Sales Density by Location 1995-2010
- Table 23: Sales densities by location at current prices 1995-2010
Average Store Size 1995-2010
- Table 24: Average store size by location 1995-2010
Average Store Sales 1995-2010
- Table 25: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1995-2010
Glossary
Terminology
Market Definitions
- Table 26: DIY & gardening market definition 2005
Location Definitions
Forecasting Methodology
- Figure 52: Verdict forecasting methodology
Abbreviations