Forecourt Innovations Profile: Catalysing Automotive LPG Use: Lessons to be learnt from the world's leading autogas markets

Content

• Chapter 1 Executive Summary
  • The world's 7 largest autogas markets account for a disproportionately high level of consumption given their size
  • The importance of these factors varies between markets, though tax incentives and non-autogas LPG use are common themes
  • When scored on a sliding scale, tax incentives and LPG use in other sectors are the key factors driving autogas use in the 7 markets
  • The majority of Europe's markets have potential to increase autogas use if appropriate fiscal incentives are provided
• Chapter 2 Introduction
  • This report highlights how the world's 7 largest autogas markets account for a disproportionately high level of consumption and what lessons European markets can learn from them
  • The potential for European markets to replicate these key factors for success is assessed via a scoring mechanism
  • The Existence of Tax incentives metric assesses the degree to which governments have levied favourable taxes on autogas
  • The Government Assistance in Conversion Costs metric highlights financial incentives to convert
  • The Emissions Cognisance metric is a proxy measure of pro- environmental attitudes
  • The Use of LPG in Other Sectors metric highlights existing LPG penetration in the non-automotive market
  • The Level of LPG Self Sufficiency metric shows how reliant on external sources of LPG a given market is
  • The Proportion of Outlets Offering autogas metric highlights how easy it currently is for autogas users to obtain supplies
  • This report is aimed at European governments and fuel retailers seeking to understand how autogas use can be increased
• Chapter 3 Market Context
  • At 8% of the total, autogas is a comparatively small part of global LPG use, though proportions vary widely between markets
  • The world's 7 largest autogas markets account for 68% of demand but much lower proportions of GDP, population and car parcs
  • Environmental issues and switching to natural gas has lead to global autogas demand growth significantly outpacing that of LPG
  • Autogas demand growth patterns and factors are autonomous of the wider LPG market
  • Demand growth in the LPG 7 has slightly exceeded global growth, though growth rates differ widely between markets
  • Growth in LPG 7 autogas fleets and outlets has been faster than the world average, though rates differ according to market maturity
• Chapter 4 Market Trends
  • Excise tax is not currently levied on autogas, though this will soon be phased in to supplement the current General Sales Tax
  • Government grants to cover around half the cost of retro conversion are widely available
  • Only 7% of Australia's primary energy comes from non-fossil fuel sources indicating a low propensity for green energy options
  • Autogas is by the largest LPG end use sector and accounts for two thirds of LPG demand
  • Significant reserves and a long history as a producer mean that Australia is both self sufficient in and a significant exporter of LPG
  • Nearly half of Australia's forecourts retail autogas
  • Australia's weighted average score of 5.55 reflects its very favourable tax incentives and LPG production capacity
  • Tax incentives are sufficiently strong in Italy to ensure that autogas retails for around half the price of petrol
  • Recent changes have enhanced the conversion incentives available to Italian motorists
  • Non-fossil fuels play only a minor role in the Italian Primary Energy mix resulting in a low Emissions Cognisance score
  • LPG has a strong penetration into the Italian market with the domestic sector the main end user
  • Italy has a strong reliance on imported LPG, though this reliance has decreased in magnitude over the past decade
  • Only 10% of Italian forecourts retail autogas, a function of Italy's disproportionately large number of forecourts
  • Widespread use of LPG in other sectors and indigenous production levels result in Italy's weighted average score of 4.50
  • Japan does not currently have any conversion cost incentives
  • A significant movement towards nuclear power over the past 30 years has reduced reliance on fossil fuels
  • LPG is widely used in all end use sectors in Japan owing to a lack of indigenous resources
  • Japanese self sufficiency in LPG has consistently remained at less than 25% over the past decade
  • The relatively low proportion of sites retailing autogas is a result of the high number of sites that exist in the market
  • The cost differential between autogas and conventional road fuels has narrowed recently
  • The Mexican government does not provide conversion grants, though costs to convert are low compared to other markets
  • The use of non fossil fuels in the Mexican Primary Energy Mix has remained low in both proportional and absolute terms
  • LPG is widely used outside of the autogas market in Mexico
  • Mexico currently produces around three quarters of LPG demand, though this proportion is rapidly decreasing
  • Around half of Mexico's rapidly increasing number of forecourts sell autogas
  • Widespread use of LPG in various sectors and indigenous production result in Mexico's weighted average score of 4.45
  • Poland's particularly favorable tax regime on autogas has been the key driver of significant and growing use
  • The lack of conversion cost incentives is more than outweighed by the particularly favourable excise tax rates on autogas in Poland
  • With less than 5% of Primary Energy sourced from non fossil fuels, Poland does not score on the Emissions Cognisance metric
  • Despite a strong penetration into the residential and industrial sectors, autogas remains the main form of LPG use in Poland
  • Poland has a small, but growing, ability to meets LPG demand via indigenous production
  • Poland has the highest proportion of autogas equipped sites in all of the LPG 7 markets
  • Poland's weighted average score of 4.28 results from very favourable tax incentives and widespread autogas availability
  • Fiscal incentives ensure that autogas remains highly competitive in relation to other fuels
  • The South Korean government does not offer any conversion incentives to potential autogas users
  • South Korea's use of nuclear power gives it the highest Emissions Cognisance score of all of the LPG 7
  • Stagnating residential and declining industrial demand have been more than offset by rapid growth in the autogas sector
  • South Korea's ability to meet LPG demand through indigenous production has grown significantly over the past decade
  • The low proportion of autogas outlets is a function of a crowded market place rather than a lack of widespread autogas availability
  • A lack of conversion cost assistance and a low proportion of autogas outlets constrains South Korea's weighted average score to 3.65
  • Favourable taxation rates means that autogas currently retails at around 40% less than petrol
  • Conversion rates in Turkey have been high, though conversion quality remains an issue
  • Turkey scores a low mark for Emissions Cognisance given the strong role of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix
  • The growth of natural gas has significantly curtailed LPG use in the residential sector, though autogas use is growing rapidly
  • Turkey has only a limited ability to meet LPG demand through indigenous production
  • Around a third of outlets sell autogas and the number of sites continues to increase strongly
  • Tax incentives and use of LPG outside of the automotive sectors result in Turkey's weighted average score of 3.58
• Chapter 5 Recommendations
  • Use of LPG in other sectors and self sufficiency are the key non-government influenced drivers of autogas use
  • Apart from tax incentives, use of LPG in other sectors and self sufficiency are the main drivers of autogas use in the LPG 7 markets
  • Use of LPG and sectoral consumption vary widely across Europe
  • All LPG markets in Europe other than Denmark and the UK are heavily import dependent
  • The numbers and proportions of autogas equipped sites varies widely within the European markets
  • The majority of Europe's markets have significant potential for increased autogas use
  • The European markets can be segmented into four distinct groups relating to the potential for wider-spread autogas use
  • Two segments have significant potential for increased autogas use if supply barriers can be overcome
  • The onus must now be on governments to encourage autogas use until other alternative fuels reach a viable stage of development
• Chapter 6 Methodology And Contact Details
  • Research methodology
  • Report writing team
• List Of Figures
  • Figure 1: Key factors Driving Autogas Use in the LPG 7 Error! Bookmark not defined.
  • Figure 2: Key Factors Scoring Mechanism
  • Figure 3: Existence of Tax Incentives Scoring Metrics
  • Figure 4: Government Assistance in Conversion Costs Scoring Metrics
  • Figure 5: Emissions Cognisance Scoring Metrics
  • Figure 6: Use of LPG in Other Sectors Scoring Metrics
  • Figure 7: Level of LPG Self Sfficiency Scoring Metrics
  • Figure 8: Proportion of Outlets Offering Autogas Scoring Metrics
  • Figure 9: Potential Users of this Report
  • Figure 10: World LPG Demand by Sector (2003)
  • Figure 11: Regional LPG Demand by Sector (2003)
  • Figure 12: Autogas, Car Parc, GDP and Population Comparisons
  • Figure 13: Autogas and Total LPG Demand
  • Figure 14: Annualised LPG and autogas growth 1994 to 2003 by region
  • Figure 15: Autogas Demand Growth in LPG 72
  • Figure 16: Growth in Autogas Parc 1994 to 2003
  • Figure 17: Growth in Autogas Filling Sites 2000 to 2003
  • Figure 18: Average Pump Prices (Australia)
  • Figure 19: Cost Elements of Forecourt Prices (Australia)
  • Figure 20: Primary Energy Composition 2003 (Australia)
  • Figure 21: Primary Energy Composition (Australia)
  • Figure 22: End Use LPG Demand 2003 (Australia)
  • Figure 23: Annualized Sectoral LPG Demand Growth 1994 to 2003 (Australia)
  • Figure 24: Supply / Demand Balance (Australia)
  • Figure 25: LPG Production / Imports Balance (Australia)
  • Figure 26: Number of Sites Selling Autogas (Australia)
  • Figure 27: Proportion of Sites Selling Autogas 2003 (Australia)
  • Figure 28: Weighted Average Scores (Australia)
  • Figure 29: Average Pump Prices (Italy)
  • Figure 30: Primary Energy Composition 2003 (Italy)
  • Figure 31: Primary Energy Composition (Italy)
  • Figure 32: End Use LPG Demand 2003 (Italy)
  • Figure 33: Annualized Sectoral LPG Demand Growth 1994 to 2003 (Italy)
  • Figure 34: Supply / Demand Balance (Italy)
  • Figure 35: LPG Production / Imports Balance (Italy)
  • Figure 36: Number of Sites Selling Autogas (Italy)
  • Figure 37: Proportion of Sites Selling Autogas 2003 (Italy)
  • Figure 38: Weighted Average Scores (Italy)
  • Figure 39: Primary Energy Composition 2003 (Japan)
  • Figure 40: Primary Energy Composition (Japan)
  • Figure 41: End Use LPG Demand 2003 (Japan)
  • Figure 42: Annualized Sectoral LPG Demand Growth 1994 to 2003 (Japan)
  • Figure 43: LPG Balance Thousand Tonnes (Japan)
  • Figure 44: Supply / Demand Balance (Japan)
  • Figure 45: Number of Sites Selling Autogas (Japan)
  • Figure 46: Proportion of Sites Selling Autogas 2003 (Japan)
  • Figure 47: Weighted Average Scores (Japan)
  • Figure 48: Average Pump Prices (Mexico)
  • Figure 49: Cost Elements of Forecourt Prices (Mexico)
  • Figure 50: Primary Energy Composition 2003 (Mexico)
  • Figure 51: Primary Energy Composition (Mexico)
  • Figure 52: End Use LPG Demand 2003 (Mexico)
  • Figure 53: Annualized Sectoral LPG Demand Growth 1994 to 2003 (Mexico)
  • Figure 54: Supply / Demand Balance (Mexico)
  • Figure 55: Number of Sites Selling Autogas (Mexico)
  • Figure 56: Proportion of Sites Selling Autogas 2003 (Mexico)
  • Figure 57: Weighted Average Scores (Mexico)
  • Figure 58: Cost Elements of Forecourt Prices (Poland)
  • Figure 59: Current Cost Elements of Autogas (Poland)
  • Figure 60: Primary Energy Composition 2003 (Poland)
  • Figure 61: Primary Energy Composition (Poland)
  • Figure 62: End Use LPG Demand 2003 (Poland)
  • Figure 63: Annualized Sectoral LPG Demand Growth 1994 to 2003 (Poland)
  • Figure 64: LPG Balance Thousand Tonnes (Poland)
  • Figure 65: LPG Production / Imports Balance (Poland)
  • Figure 66: Number of Sites Selling Autogas (Poland)
  • Figure 67: Proportion of Sites Selling Autogas 2003 (Poland)
  • Figure 68: Weighted Average Scores (Poland)
  • Figure 69: Primary Energy Composition 2003 (South Korea)
  • Figure 70: Primary Energy Composition (South Korea)
  • Figure 71: End Use LPG Demand 2003 (South Korea)
  • Figure 72: Annualized Sectoral LPG Demand Growth 1994 to 2003 (South Korea)
  • Figure 73: LPG Balance Thousand Tonnes (South Korea)
  • Figure 74: LPG Production / Imports Balance (South Korea)
  • Figure 75: Number of Sites Selling Autogas (South Korea)
  • Figure 76: Proportion of Sites Selling Autogas 2003 (South Korea)
  • Figure 77: Weighted Average Scores (South Korea)
  • Figure 78: Average Pump Prices (Turkey)
  • Figure 79: Current Cost Elements of Autogas (Turkey)
  • Figure 80: Primary Energy Composition 2003 (Turkey)
  • Figure 81: Primary Energy Composition (Turkey)
  • Figure 82: End Use LPG Demand 2003 (Turkey)
  • Figure 83: Annualized Sectoral LPG Demand Growth 1997 to 2003 (Turkey)
  • Figure 84: LPG Balance Thousand Tonnes (Turkey)
  • Figure 85: LPG Production / Imports Balance (Turkey)
  • Figure 86: Number of Sites Selling Autogas (Turkey)
  • Figure 87: Proportion of Sites Selling Autogas 2003 (Turkey)
  • Figure 88: Weighted Average Scores (Turkey)
  • Figure 89: Average Scores across LPG 7 markets
  • Figure 90: Sectoral LPG Consumption by Selected European Market
  • Figure 91: LPG Balance by Selected European Market
  • Figure 92: Proportions of Autogas Sites in Selected European Markets
  • Figure 93: LPG Use and Self Sufficiency Scores (Selected Europe Markets)