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Country Report Angola July 2011

  • Publication Date:July 2011
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:24

Country Report Angola July 2011

Outlook for 2011-15

  • The ruling party, Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA), is set to continue its dominance of the political system, by virtue of its control of government resources and overwhelming majority in the National Assembly.
  • The long-serving president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, is expected to remain in charge at least until the 2012 legislative election.
  • The main opposition party, the Uniao Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola, has little chance of winning legislative elections and will focus on proposed municipal elections, which have been delayed.
  • Real GDP is forecast to expand by an average of 8.2% in 2011-12, on the back of rising oil production and the start-up of a major liquefied natural gas project, before moderating to an average of 6.6% in 2013-15.
  • Average inflation will remain relatively high throughout the forecast period, although, assuming that structural reforms start to address underlying distortions, it is forecast to start falling moderately in 2013-15.
  • Helped by high global oil prices, the current account is set to register surpluses of 8.7% of GDP and 1.3% of GDP in, respectively, 2011 and 2012 before moving back into deficit over the remainder of the forecast period.

Monthly review

  • Over the last month the government has become increasingly vocal in its criticism of foreign intervention in Africa, with particular reference to Libya.
  • The foreign minister, George Chikoti, has castigated the International Criminal Court for its recent indictment of the Libyan leader, Muammar Qadhafi.
  • The IMF has conducted its fifth review of Angola's stand-by agreement (SBA), commending the government for the progress that it has made with its reform agenda. IMF Executive Board approval is expected in September.
  • Despite rumours that Angola was contemplating switching to a precautionary IMF arrangement, the government has confirmed that it will stick with the current SBA until its expiry in February 2012.
  • The central bank has tightened the restrictions on foreign-currency-denominated lending by local banks, in a bid to reduce dollarisation.
  • The first stage of the Luanda Bay regeneration project has been completed, following the opening of the Ponte Kianda flyover.
  • The government has announced that it will make an expansion of hydroelectricity capacity a priority under its Public Investment Programme.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 89;48;53;49;60;20;37;80;70;47
NAICS Code: 81;517;44;22;52;311;336;62;72;48

  • Highlights
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Political stability
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Election watch
    • Outlook for 2011-15: International relations
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Policy trends
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Fiscal policy
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy
    • Outlook for 2011-15: International assumptions
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Economic growth
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Inflation
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Exchange rates
    • Outlook for 2011-15: External sector
    • Outlook for 2011-15: Forecast summary
    • The political scene: Angola takes a stand against intervention in Libya
    • Economic policy: IMF undertakes its fifth review of the stand-by-agreement
    • Economic policy: Government decides against a precautionary arrangement
    • Economic policy: Government's Eurobond debut is planned for September
    • Economic policy: Central bank acts to limit foreign-currency loans
    • Economic performance: First stage of the Luanda Bay project is inaugurated
    • Economic performance: The authorities hope to improve Luanda's image
    • Economic performance: The government makes hydroelectric plants a priority
    • Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
    • Data and charts: Quarterly data
    • Data and charts: Monthly data
    • Data and charts: Annual trends charts
    • Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
    • Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
    • Basic data
    • Political structure
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