Country Report Angola November 2008

Outlook for 2009-10

• The ruling party, Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA), has cemented its political hegemony by winning a resounding victory in the legislative election on September 5th-6th, securing 81.6% of the national vote.
• The Angolan president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, is anticipated to stand as the MPLA's candidate in the presidential election, which is expected to take place in mid-2009, along with proposed municipal elections.
• The main opposition party, Uniao Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA), will struggle to redefine itself after securing just 10.4% of the national vote in the legislative election.
• With oil production set to continue rising, strong real GDP growth is set to be maintained over the forecast period, averaging 8.2% in 2009 and 9.8% in 2010.
• Sustained high government spending and buoyant domestic demand will keep inflation high, at an average of 11.7% in 2009 and 10.5% in 2010.
• The ongoing rise in oil exports is forecast to keep the current account heavily in surplus, although falling international oil prices will reduce it to 11.8% of GDP in 2009, before rising again to 17.9% of GDP in 2010.

Monthly review

• The former deputy prime minister, Aguinaldo Jaime, has been appointed to head a new commission charged with reforming existing fiscal incentives in order to boost foreign investment in the non-mineral sectors.
• The trial of 42 people involved in the so-called Angolagate affair has finally started in Paris. Although no Angolans have been indicted, there are concerns that embarrassing revelations could harm Franco-Angolan relations further.
• The ministerial council has approved the draft 2009 budget, which proposes increasing total expenditure by 40% to Kz3.176trn (US$42bn).
• Canada's export credit agency, Export Development Canada (EDC), is to provide up to US$1bn in financing for Angolan infrastructure projects.
• Oil production has fallen to 1.7m barrels/day, following an accident at BP's Greater Plutonio oilfield, which caused a two-month halt in production.
• OPEC has imposed a production cut of 99,000 barrels/day on Angola, which will reduce the country's quota to just over 1.8m barrels/day.
• A Canadian company, Hansa Resources, has started appraisal drilling on its 10,000-sqkm Tetelo-Mavoio copper exploration licence, located in Uige province near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 13;10;60
NAICS Code: 211;212;52