Country Report Angola September 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The ruling party, the Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA), is set to continue its dominance of the political system, by virtue of its control of government resources and overwhelming majority in the National Assembly.
• The president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, is likely to stand as the MPLA's candidate in the presidential election expected to take place in late 2010, which will be followed by municipal elections, possibly as late as 2012.
• The main opposition party, the Uniao Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA), has little chance of winning a presidential contest and will focus on the municipal elections.
• With oil production expected to fall in line with OPEC cuts, real GDP is forecast to contract by 1.9% in 2009, before recovering to growth of 5.5% in 2010, in line with rising oil output.
• The high cost of imports, coupled with an expected depreciation of the currency, will keep inflation high, at an average of 13.1% in 2009 and 11.4% in? 2010.
• The collapse in export revenue in 2009 will reduce the current-account surplus to 5.7% of GDP, before a recovery in international oil prices and output boosts the surplus to 9.5% of GDP in 2010.

Monthly review

• Mr Dos Santos has confirmed that the presidential election will be held by popular vote, and not via an indirect election in the National Assembly.
• The South African president, Jacob Zuma, visited Angola as the head of a large ministerial and business delegation, signalling a revival in previously strained relations between Angola and South Africa.
• An IMF delegation has visited Luanda for talks on a possible economic programme for Angola, which could be implemented in early 2010.
• The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA, the central bank) has had some success in stemming the collapse in foreign-exchange reserves through restricting the availability of US dollars in domestic markets.
• The government has approved the sale of its 80% stake in the mobile-phone company Movicel to a group of private Angolan investors.
• Angola has continued to flout its OPEC quota, with Angolan crude exports expected to rise from 1.85m barrel/day in September to 1.9m b/d in October.
• A US company, Chevron, has announced that its Tombua-Landana project in deepwater Block 14 is due to start up in the third quarter of 2009, which could reach a plateau of 100,000 b/d of oil by 2011.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;37;53;49;48;70;1;47
NAICS Code: 52;336;44;22;517;72;11;48