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Country Report Burundi 3rd Quarter 2012

  • Publication Date:August 2012
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:25

Country Report Burundi 3rd Quarter 2012

Outlook for 2012-13

  • The ruling Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) and the president, Pierre Nkurunziza, are expected to remain dominant over the forecast period.
  • Tensions between the government on the one hand and the media, civil society and opposition parties on the other hand are expected to rise, boosting risks to political stability.
  • GDP growth is expected to reach 4.1% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013, on the back of solid agricultural and construction activity, although this is contingent on political stability, weather conditions and international oil and food prices.
  • The fiscal deficit will widen to 5% in 2012, as counter-inflationary tax cuts and declining aid lead to a shortfall in revenues. Improving macroeconomic conditions and robust growth will lead the deficit to narrow to 4.6% in 2013.
  • High fuel and food prices will push up inflation to 16% in 2012, before easing international prices bring it back to a still-high 10.5% in 2013.
  • The growing import bill will cause the current-account deficit to widen to 20% of GDP in 2012, before healthy economic growth reduces this to 18.3% of GDP in 2013.

Review

  • A long-awaited commission has been set up to investigate cases of extra-judicial killings that have been reported by human rights groups since the 2010 election.
  • A Burundian journalist has been sentenced to life imprisonment on charges of terrorism after being accused of broadcasting propaganda for a rebel group.
  • Burundi has revised its 2012 budget to curb the deficit after the EU withdrew its budget support, while temporary tax waivers to fight inflation led to a decline in revenues.
  • The national revenue office, OBR, has announced below-target domestic revenue collection in the first half of 2012.
  • The trade deficit soared in the first quarter of 2012 because of high oil prices, falling coffee prices and a depreciation of the Burundi franc.
  • The state-owned water and energy utility, Regideso, has started to ration electricity after water shortfalls resulted in insufficient electricity generation.

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available

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