Country Report Cameroon

Outlook for 2008-09

• The 75-year-old president, Paul Biya, supported by the ruling party, Rassemblement democratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC), will continue to dominate the political scene during the forecast period.
• The recent social unrest caused by unemployed youth is a source of concern for the regime, since it could become a formidable challenge if it were to become politically organised.
• The regime will continue to seek closer ties with countries interested in developing Cameroon's untapped natural resources.
• One of the government's priorities will be to contain the rapid rise in the cost of living.
• Real GDP growth is expected to remain subdued, at 3.6% in 2008, owing to the negative effect of social unrest on investment plans, although it will accelerate to 4.8% in 2009 as construction of new mining projects begins.
• The current-account deficit is forecast to narrow from an estimated 1.8% of GDP in 2007 to 1.7% of GDP in 2008 owing to high oil prices, before widening to 2.4% of GDP in 2009 as a result of increased imports and falling oil exports.
• The 75-year-old president, Paul Biya, supported by the ruling party, Rassemblement democratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC), will continue to dominate the political scene during the forecast period.
• The recent social unrest caused by unemployed youth is a source of concern for the regime, since it could become a formidable challenge if it were to become politically organised.
• The regime will continue to seek closer ties with countries interested in developing Cameroon's untapped natural resources.
• One of the government's priorities will be to contain the rapid rise in the cost of living.
• Real GDP growth is expected to remain subdued, at 3.6% in 2008, owing to the negative effect of social unrest on investment plans, although it will accelerate to 4.8% in 2009 as construction of new mining projects begins.
• The current-account deficit is forecast to narrow from an estimated 1.8% of GDP in 2007 to 1.7% of GDP in 2008 owing to high oil prices, before widening to 2.4% of GDP in 2009 as a result of increased imports and falling oil exports.

Monthly review

• The protests organised by the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), against the repeal of the presidential two-term limit have received little popular support.
• The anti-corruption campaign has gained momentum with the dismissal of several police officers on corruption charges. However, the arrests of former ministers accused of corruption could be politically motivated.
• The government has announced that the public-sector wage increases announced in March will be covered by tighter expenditure controls to avoid leakages and over-billing.
• The privatised electricity utility, AES Sonel, has began to build the 86-mw heavy-oil fired power plant in Dibamba, near the country's economic capital, Douala.
• The government has reduced electricity tariffs for low consumption households, while increasing those for richer households and businesses.
• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has suspended the national airline, Cameroon Airlines (Camair), from its ticket compensation scheme owing to the company's financial difficulties.
• International reserves increased by 69%, to US$2.93bn, in 2007 owing to tight fiscal discipline and the sharp increase of oil prices in international markets.
• The protests organised by the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), against the repeal of the presidential two-term limit have received little popular support.
• The anti-corruption campaign has gained momentum with the dismissal of several police officers on corruption charges. However, the arrests of former ministers accused of corruption could be politically motivated.
• The government has announced that the public-sector wage increases announced in March will be covered by tighter expenditure controls to avoid leakages and over-billing.
• The privatised electricity utility, AES Sonel, has began to build the 86-mw heavy-oil fired power plant in Dibamba, near the country's economic capital, Douala.
• The government has reduced electricity tariffs for low consumption households, while increasing those for richer households and businesses.
• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has suspended the national airline, Cameroon Airlines (Camair), from its ticket compensation scheme owing to the company's financial difficulties.
• International reserves increased by 69%, to US$2.93bn, in 2007 owing to tight fiscal discipline and the sharp increase of oil prices in international markets.

SOURCE: Country Report