Country Report Cameroon June 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The ruling Rassemblement democratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC) is expected to continue to dominate the political scene during 2009-10, although factional divisions will increasingly jeopardise its unity.
• Given the advanced age of the president, Paul Biya, and the reportedly fragile state of his health, his departure from office as a result of sickness cannot be ruled out. In such an event, the ensuing power vacuum could be destabilising.
• The government will struggle to secure foreign investment for infrastructure, agricultural and mining projects amid the severe global economic slowdown and tight financial markets.
• In view of the prolonged and severe drop in global demand for Cameroon's main export commodities, the economy is now forecast to contract by 0.2% in real terms in 2009, before returning to growth in 2010, of 1.4%.
• World prices for food and fuel will drop in 2009, but lower subsidies will offset some of this deflationary pressure, leading to average inflation of 3%. Higher commodity prices will sustain inflation at 3.2% in 2010.
• The current account is forecast to move from balance in 2008 to a deficit equivalent to 3.6% of GDP in 2009, amid lower global demand for oil and timber, and 3.3% in 2010 as demand picks up slightly.

Monthly review

• During a visit of the French prime minister, Francois Fillon, to Cameroon in May, agreements on defence, aid and immigration were signed. The visit was also seen as a sign of continued French endorsement of the government.
• The leader of the Union nationale pour la democratie et le progres (UNDP), Maigari Bello Bouba, announced in mid-May his intention to run for the presidency in 2011, when the next election is due.
• In May Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Sao Tome and Principe began combined naval patrols to police the Gulf of Guinea in order to check the recent rise in criminal activity there.
• In May officials and coffee growers met to devise a highly ambitious new strategy to double coffee output by 2015 through improving growers' access to inputs and rehabilitating ageing plantations among other measures.
• A feasibility study for the construction of a deep sea port in Limbe has been completed. The study, which was undertaken by a Korean firm, Korea Port Engineering, estimates the cost of building the port at US$830m.
• According to recent data from the National Statistics Office, the informal sector now employs about 7m workers, accounting for over 90% of all employment.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 10;60;70;49;20;47
NAICS Code: 212;52;72;22;11;311;48